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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    I can think of only one: 2001-02. That winter was cooked even before it began.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I wouldn't be surprised if we had one of the warmest winters on record. Our last 2 droughts, in late 1998 and 2001-02, produced 2 very warm winters, especially 01-02. That was a wall-to-wall torch winter, bookended with 80s in late October and mid-90s in mid-April, with all winter months (December, January, February, and March) recording at least one 70+ high.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Amazing how we were able to get such a warm and virtually snowless month in December 2014, despite every warning sign flashing a very cold and snowy winter. Definitely the outlier month of that winter. JFM 2015 was the coldest JFM since 1978, beating out JFM 2014.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    In hindsight, it was easy to see why there is a drought this fall. Our last two droughts were in 1998-99 and 2001-02. This year shared characteristics with both years. 1998-99 was coming off a strong ONI el nino and 2001-02 was near a solar maximum. This year, we have both happening. Don't expect the drought to end any time soon. In fact, I had 1998-99 pegged as an analog in page 2 of this thread:
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    I get the feeling November-February 2024-25 is going to mimic October-January 2021-22. November and January are going to be absolute torch months, while December and February are going to be near (and possibly even slightly cooler than) normal. That +10 January is going to skew the temperature departure of this winter into a +3 or +4, when the rest of the winter was otherwise near normal.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    1998-99 is a much better analog than 1999-2000. 1998 is a near perfect MEI/RONI match, a strong el nino -> la nina transition, a dry fall for most of the Eastern US (which led to a drought winter), and near identical Atlantic hurricane season activity. 1999-2000, much like 2011-12, was one of the wettest falls on record, which is clearly not what we have here.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    The Weather Channel has been good at predicting winter torch months well in advance, at least in recent years. They had months like December 2021 and December 2023 torching well in advance. FWIW, they have January torching. I think there will a window for a snow in early-to-mid December, but there will be a great snow lull/torch in late December through January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be in February.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    What makes this winter tough to predict is the disjointedness of the ONI, RONI, and MEI. We've never had a scenario before where the ONI is somewhere near ENSO neutral, the MEI is a strong la nina, and the RONI is somewhere in the middle. The best we can do is probably find years where 2 of the 3 measures are somewhat similar: 1998-99: MEI & RONI 2007-08: MEI & RONI 2016-17: ONI & RONI 2020-21: MEI & RONI
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Interesting to note that the most severe Atlantic hurricane season on record would follow.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    The NOAA ONI has finally been updated for JAS (-0.1). The JJA number has also been revised from 0.1 to 0.0
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific. The result would be a very deadly, destructive, and active hurricane season, like 2004. That said, I do not see it happening. I just cannot see the PDO (which is at near record negative) anywhere near neutral or even +PDO like we had in 2004-05 to form the modoki el nino. [Remember, the last transition from -PDO to +PDO, which started in 2013, took at least a couple years to complete. Also, everyone was talking about an el nino in 2012-13, and it didn't start to form until fall 2014, and only really took off in spring 2015.] I suppose we'll still be in -PDO, and either in la nina or ENSO neutral in 2025-26.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    I can already tell you that 1998 is going to be one of the analogs. I've done that fall/winter composite ad nauseum.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think most reasonable people knew this was going to be a -PDO winter, and likely a record -PDO. The only ones that thought otherwise were probably the CanSIPS and the people pushing 2013-14 as a good analog. I could tell early on that 2013-14 wasn't going to be a good analog. In 2013, the PDO was (generally) heading towards neutral. This year, the PDO has only gotten deeper into the negative. Maybe 2013-14 could be a good analog for 2025-26, but definitely not this winter. 2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04 2024 -1.55 -1.33 -1.52 -2.12 -2.99 -3.16 -2.99 -2.91 -3.54
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    I guess we won't know for sure until we get the AS and SO updates, but if @bluewave's post about "getting a very strong October La Niña atmospheric response with a record 500mb +EPO Alaskan vortex for October" is correct, then the SO number is coming in around -1.5, as the MEI was already at -0.7 at last update (JA). It will be interesting to see after the SO number comes in (whether it's -1.2, -1.5, or even -1.8), if the MEI levels out (like it did in 1998-99), and the ONI/RONI catch up to it. If that were to happen, then 98-99 would be a great MEI/RONI match, and 2020-21 would be the best ONI/RONI/MEI match.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I can't see the MEI peaking at -1.0 to -1.2 when it was at -0.7 in JJ/JA. In fact, it was probably already at -1.0 to -1.2 in AS. I think we're going even deeper, probably -1.4 to -1.6, in SO. Where things stand right now, I think a peak of -1.6 to -1.8 on the MEI makes more sense with a -1.2 to -1.4 RONI and -0.8 to -1 ONI.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    The last real ENSO neutral season was 2013-14. However, 2014-15 and 2019-20 were pretty much ENSO neutral on both the MEI and RONI. Both years had at least 3+ trimonthlies of +0.5 on the ONI, so they technically meet the definition of a weak el nino. That said, I think we eek out at least 3 trimonthlies of -0.5 on the ONI and get the weak la nina on that measure like 2016-17. Regardless of whether the ONI stays an ENSO neutral or meets weak la nina status, this year is going to be very hard to classify if we get the expected strong la nina on the MEI and moderate la nina on the RONI.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    At this point, I don't think we're getting an update until 11/4 or 11/5. I think JAS and ASO will be released at the same time. If we still don't get an update, I might just ask Eric Webb if he can update the Ensemble ONI. If I can just get a JAS/ASO number from either source, then I'll have a good feel on where the ENSO state will be during Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    lol, as soon as you wrote this, I knew this post was a joke. Keep in mind, our last drought (2001-02) was an ENSO neutral season near a solar max, and we got one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record. That said, I don't think we're getting an ENSO neutral winter. We are in a strengthening la nina. It probably won't be as strong as 1998-99, but we're heading towards an extended drought like that winter. The ONI might be saying ENSO neutral, but the MEI (https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/) was already showing a weak la nina at last update (JA), and is probably headed towards strong la nina territory by the next update.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think most reasonable people are in agreement that this upcoming winter will be 2 warm months and one cool one, with January being one of the warm months. Accuweather is calling for a warmer than average winter with below average snowfall. February will be the best month for snow chances, but there could also be some storms in early December: https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-forecast-for-the-us-in-the-2024-25-season/1699821
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    98-99 and 01-02 were the drought seasons. 11-12, while very warm, was very wet (especially in August/September 2011). 07-08 was more dry than 11-12. If not for the late October rainstorm in 2007, we probably have a drought.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, the MEI is going to be in strong la nina territory for the SO update. I wonder how close we get to the 21-22/22-23 peak.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I disagree about the Thanksgiving Day torch setting the tone. If that was the case, we would have not had a snow event on December 5, just two weeks later. November and December was the cold period that year. The torch that year happened in September and October. Thing is, 07-08 wasn't an out of the ordinary warm winter like those other years. December was below average temperaturewise, while January and February were only +2/+3 months. It's weird how the winter was bookended by the December 5 and February 22 snowstorms, with nothing much in between.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    Even then, those years weren't a total loss in December. 07-08 had the early snow event on Dec 5, and had a negative temperature departure. Dec 2022 also had a negative temperature departure. 98-99, while a very warm December, famously had that miracle snow event 2 days before Christmas (2 days earlier we had record high temperatures in the 60s). We had a few good snows until mid-January, and then a lull until the end of February, and one last hurrah in early-to-mid March. 98-99, while a below average snow season, still had its moments. I see 07-08 as the worst case scenario for 24-25, and 20-21 the best case scenario. Most likely, we might something in the middle, like a 98-99 or 16-17.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    This is what I see happening as well. I think there will be a snow event during the first half of December, followed by a snow lull until the end of January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be the first 3 weeks of February.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    I highly doubt we add 40 ACE towards the end of the year. However, if we do, we could finish with a Top 10 ACE year. (NOTE: Data averages Wunderground & NOAA values for years 2016 and before, NOAA values only for 2017 and later) 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 12 1955 178.585
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