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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I totally whiffed all winter on this prediction. I thought we'd get a 2009-10 type winter to start with, but when December was warm, I changed my tune to a 2006-07 type winter (one that started warm, but the bottom dropped out in February). It looked good for a while in January, but the cold never materialized in February.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    November 2020 and October 2021 were uber warm. The following month in each case (December 2020 and November 2021) were much close to normal temperaturewise. Three months later (February 2021 and January 2022), we got the -PDO la nina mismatch month. I've already accepted that the die is cast for a slow start to winter this December and January. If 2020-21 and 2021-22 are an indicator, I still think we could milk out a close to average or even below average December. However, I'm keeping hope alive that February 2025 will be another mismatch month like February 2021 and January 2022.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Which is why I think a near to slightly below average temperature December is possible. However, I think it will be a dry cold like November 2021. Though with it being December instead of November, I think we can get a 1"-3" snow event somewhere. January is going to be a torch month like December 2021. The best hope for this winter is for some sort of MJO 8/1 mismatch in February to save the winter.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    2015 I had the A/C on in the car on December 12 and Christmas Eve.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    October 2021 -> November 2024 (uber warm month) November 2021 -> December 2024 (cool, but mostly dry month) December 2021 -> January 2025 (uber warm month) January 2022 -> February 2025 (mismatch month, cold and snowy) Overall, the winter will be warmer than average, but it won't be warm throughout. I see a 1"-3" early December snowstorm in the mid-Atlantic, with Arctic air coming immediately thereafter. January is going to be warm. The winter will hinge on whether we get a January 2022/February 2021 type mismatch in February 2025. If we don't, then this winter will be a huge bust and FMA will be 3-5 degrees above average.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Possibly both. I know there are wildfires going on around here, but I watched the Chiefs game last night, and there was fog in KC (and that may have possibly moved east overnight). It looks like a fast moving storm, and the fog is gone.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    FTFY. The pattern we are in isn't going to give us much rain, much less a snowstorm, in November. We're staying torch and mostly dry for the rest of the month. I do agree on a pattern in change in early December. I think the snow event happens around December 4-5, and arctic air invades after that.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    2023-24 belongs in the same group as 2009-10. Both years had significantly lower MEI peaks than all the other strong el ninos. 1982-83: 2.9 1986-88: 2.1 1991-92: 2 1997-98: 2.6 2009-10: 1.3 2023-24: 1.1 (comparable to 2006-07, a weak el nino year)
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Strong el ninos and their ENSO states the following year 1957-58 -> No la nina in 1958-59 (weak el nino, followed by 4 ENSO neutral years) 1965-66 -> No la nina in 1966-67 (2 ENSO neutral years, followed by el nino) 1972-73 -> Strong la nina in 1973-74 (first of 3 straight la nina years) 1982-83 -> Weak la nina in 1983-84 (followed by moderate la nina in 1984-85) 1986-88 -> Strong la nina in 1988-89 1991-92 -> No la nina in 1992-93 (2 ENSO neutral years, followed by el nino) 1997-98 -> Strong la nina in 1998-99 and 1999-2000 2009-10 -> Strong la nina in 2010-11 2015-16 -> Weak la nina in 2016-17 and 2017-18 2023-24 -> Either no la nina or weak la nina in 2024-25 Since 1972-73, every strong el nino was followed up with a la nina, with the exception of 1992 (and that was affected by Mt. Pinatubo). If we don't get an official la nina, if we removed Pinatubo, it would be the first time following a strong el nino since 1966 that we don't get a la nina.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    ASO ONI (NOAA): -0.2 ASO RONI: -0.76
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Fall 1998 and fall 2001 were the big drought years here. Of course, we know about the torch winter of 2001-02. Although a very warm winter, 1998-99 had its moments. We even had a White Christmas and 3 good weeks of winter before the shut-off in mid-January. We also got some snow in mid-March. 98-99 was pretty much a similar pattern to 16-17.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I was at Buffalo for the eclipse, and the last full day I was there (April 9), it was already almost 80 degrees. [I was glad to get the last bit of snow on April 5.] Here, at PHL, Dec-July was very warm. It was August and September that was cool. October was a return to very warm, and it looks like November will be the same. The last time we had that temperature profile during the fall was 2020-21, and we got a decent winter out of it.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I factored CC into my winter forecast. I even have a +8 to +10 month in there. Every winter since 2015-16 has had at least one uber warm month except for 2018-19 and 2020-21 (althought November 2020 was very warm).
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    My winter forecast (PHL): Dec: -1 to 0 Jan: +8 to +10 Feb: -1 to 0 Mar: +3 to +5 Overall: +3 to +4 Snowfall: 12-20 inches
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    We had 3 earthquakes in the last 15 years: 8/23/2011 - I was at the Penn Museum 11/30/2017 - I was on my way home getting a cake for my father's 57th birthday 4/5/2024 - I was travelling to Buffalo for the Eclipse. I think I was around Scranton when the Earthquake happened.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    First time in 22 years. To put this into perspective, the last time we made it to severe drought designation, the Eagles still played at Veterans Stadium.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think the Modoki el nino only happens if the -PDO subsides. If we're still in -PDO, we're most likely in ENSO neutral or la nina. 2 el ninos in 3 years is rare, much less impossible in -PDO.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    My winter forecast (PHL): Dec: -1 to 0 Jan: +8 to +10 Feb: -1 to 0 Mar: +3 to +5 Overall: +3 to +4 Snowfall: 12-20 inches Winter 2024-25 is going to have one outlier warm month (like February 2018, December 2021, and December 2023) that is going to skew the temperature departure. I feel that January is going to be the uber warm month, in a winter that is otherwise normal temperaturewise. In regards to snowfall, I see 07-08 being the floor and 20-21 being the ceiling. I see an early snow event around December 4-16, followed by a long snow lull through the end of January, with the bulk of the cold and snow in February.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    If by 'beat' you mean a higher temperature on Christmas, then the answer is obviously no. Keep in mind, the record for the month of December at PHL is 73. It isn't going to be 80+ on Christmas, lol.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    It doesn't rain anymore, so I guess we now have to start measuring the thickness of our fog, lol.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    So it was fall 2016 into 2017, which would be another el nino -> la nina swing, like 1998-99 and 2007 (possibly this year if we get a la nina). Droughts tend to happen in years when we go from strong el nino -> la nina or el nino -> strong la nina. 1998, when we had the widespread drought, was one of the strongest swings from a super el nino -> strong la nina.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think you meant to say 2007, not 2017. There was no drought near us in 2017. That was a wet late spring and summer, especially May, July, and August. Not to mention, the winter that followed had a considerable amount of snow early and late (surrounded by outlier near-record warm February). There might have been a drought in fall 2007, as September and most of October was dry (until the rainstorm on the 24th-27th).
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    To be fair, we were way overdue for a drought. We haven't had one since 2001-02. Heck, we haven't even come close to having drought conditions late October 2007, and a rainstorm saved us from one. I'd argue that the drought itself isn't the one-in-1000-year event, but rather the 22-year gap in between droughts is. I bet if you go back in records, there probably isn't even a gap of 10 years without a drought before this.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Which part of Canada? Was it the West? Because I'm pretty sure it wasn't anywhere in Eastern Canada because here in the mid-Atlantic, we got one of our coolest May-June periods ever, and an overall cool summer. May/June was dominated by a blocking pattern that caused the smoky orange skies in NYC/mid-Atlantic in June 2023.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Only problem is that the la nina died in 2001, and by this point in 2002, we were heading towards a solid moderate el nino and the pattern was changing. We don't have anything close to that right now. If anything, we are much closer to the conditions of 2001-02, which was a very warm and snowless winter. This drought is likely going on for a while. Best hope is that we get a 2020-21 type winter, and then a tropical rainstorm in the summer. That's how we broke the 1998-99 drought.
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