PhiEaglesfan712

Sounds similar to what happened at the end of the winter of 2008-09, except that storm was at the beginning of March, so we cashed in with a big snowstorm. This one was in mid-April, so we ended up with a cold rain event. Hopefully, like the 3/1/2009 snowstorm, this event could be the precursor to the next great run of snowstorms.

MEI for FM 2025 was -0.7

That March 2009 snowstorm was definitely a turning point. The first part of that season (October 2008-January 2009) had a lot of cold, but not the snow. In fact, there was no real snow event, except for the early February one that got a fluky 8+ inches at PHL. That was more of an isolated storm. The March 2009 one was a Nor-easter and more widespread (it would be the first of many such events in the next 7 years).

January 1982 was a very cold and snowy month. (We haven't had a January colder than that one since then.) It pretty much saved the winter (as February and March were very lackluster). The April snowstorm pretty much iterated the potential that was there from January. And yes, the April 19-20 snowstorm was in 1983, which was at the tail end of the super el nino. Amazing to think you can get a snowstorm 2 months from the summer solstice. It would be like if it snowed on August 21-22 on the other side of the solstice (I can't imagine that happening).

Perhaps the most amazing thing about the record amount of snow storm tracks from about 3/1/2009 to 1/23/2016 is that we had a 2-winter record low snow stretch (2011-12 and 2012-13) right in the middle of it!

Nope, it was April 7, 2003 (my freshman year of high school, adding to a very historic snow season):

16-17 wasn't a great snow winter, especially south of Philly. It even ranks among the Top 10 least snowy winters in Baltimore (3 inches) and Washington DC (3.4 inches).

We've been doing well with rainfall the last month (6 events of 0.5+ inch, 3 events of 1+ inch): 2025-03-05 62 49 55.5 15.3 9 0 1.54 2025-03-16 70 50 60.0 16.6 5 0 0.53 0.0 0 2025-03-17 62 36 49.0 5.3 16 0 0.89 0.0 0 2025-03-20 72 45 58.5 13.8 6 0 0.58 2025-03-24 54 40 47.0 1.0 18 0 0.51 2025-03-31 82 50 66.0 17.4 0 1 1.27 2025-04-04 71 60 65.5 15.4 0 1 0.88

I think we are seeing this with el ninos. The last moderate one was 2002-03, which is over 20 years ago now. Since then, either they've been weak (2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, and 2018-19/20) or strong/super (2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24). That doesn't seem to be the case with la ninas. We just had 3 straight years of moderate la nina in 2020-23.

JFM 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.4 JFM 2025 RONI: -0.90 March 2025 PDO: -1.12

We had at least 3 good rain events during the month of March. Starting with the one on the 5th, then on the 16th/17th, and last night. Over 5 inches of rain in during the month, which is a first since August. The worst of the drought is over.

I'd say that with the exception of January, the 2020-21 analog worked almost in line with this year, especially with temperature. December and February were cool to near average, while November and March absolutely torched in the East.

If I remember correctly, I think we went above 80 on 3/26/2021. Some locations in this area reached 80 on 2/21/2018.

I emptied out the gas in the snowblower this morning.

Probably an on and off thing for Saturday and Sunday.

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

My phone is saying 78 on Saturday, 69 on Sunday, and 75 on Monday to end out the month. It's going to be very warm. The only question is how warm?

Or we could find a way to keep CJGJ. Because since he entered the NFL: 2019-2021 (No CJGJ) - No playoff wins 2022 (CJGJ) - Super Bowl appearance 2023 (No CJGJ) - Late season collapse 2024 (CJGJ) - Super Bowl Champions 2025 (No CJGJ) - ?

Nah, this has been par for the course in the 2020s. PHL didn't have a trace of snow in March in 2020, 2021, and 2024. If this holds, it will be the 4th time in the first 6 years of this decade with no trace of snow.

If we get a SSW in the coming days, we're looking at something similar to 2010: https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1903446063169581452

As the old saying goes, if the football field is muddy, then the dry period is nearing its end. Good example was the last week of October 2007, the local high school football field was muddy, and the dry period ended soon thereafter. By the way, here is the lastest drought monitor from NWS Mount Holly:

Whether an el nino or la nina develops in 2025-26 depends on whether the WPAC warms (this makes an el nino more likely) or the EPAC cools (this makes a la nina more likely). The JMA is showing an EPAC cooling in the coming months:

The trolling game from @RedSky and @Ralph Wiggum have been on point this year, but #teamsnow will again have their day... By the way, there won't be any snow this month. So for anyone holding out hope, it's time to let it go.