PhiEaglesfan712

Thing is, the WPAC and the EPAC are so disjointed now. If any type of el nino forms in WPAC, even a weak one, the EPAC is almost certainly going to be in a strong el nino state. For us to have a weak el nino, the WPAC probably has to be near ENSO neutral.

Yeah, the last major snowstorm I remember was in January 2016. We've had some hits from time to time, but we haven't had that Big One in almost a decade now.

We already have a neutral this year. Not in the conventional sense (like our last one in 2013-14), but we had a late developing la nina in the WPAC and an el nino in the EPAC.

That was pretty apparent at the beginning of the month. I was there on the Feb. 1-2 weekend, and we got down to 9F overnight. I knew Boston was in for a cool month.

Exactly, it would be like re-living the epic March 2001 snow bust. I'd rather the rug be pulled now, not the day of. That was the worst feeling in the world. I was in 7th grade when that snow bust happened, and it really messed me up the rest of that school year.

I think it's 30 years (right now, it's the 1991-2020 normals). That's at least what we use for average temperatures. Some time in 2031, it will become the 2001-2030 normals.

If you're talking about an el nino, then we're at least 2-3 years out. The ENSO is pretty similar to this point in 2022, where we had a late/in-between season la nina peak.

Yeah, assuming February stays below average temperaturewise, when was the last time we got 4 straight below average temperature months? You can bet your bottom dollar that March is going to be warmer than average.

We're not getting an el nino next winter. We have a late peaking la nina that is at or below -1C on the MEI and RONI, like we were in 2022. The la nina will continue into next winter. El nino will need to wait until 2026-27, if not 2027-28.

I think this one is different. The weather app on my iPhone has said double-digit inches of snow at PHL for days now. That hasn't happened for any of the other storms this year. I think a major snow event is a sure thing.

I'm not sure about 1960-61, but 1966-67 is easy to explain. That was a classic example of a neutral year taking the shape of the previous ENSO state. 1966-67 behaved like an el nino, as the previous year was a strong el nino. 1992-93 was very similar to this.

FWIW, I had February 2001 as my top analog for this February. Outside of the December 30, 2000 snowstorm, this winter has behaved almost similarly to that one in our area, in regards to temps/precip/snowfall. The winter of 2000-01, if I remember correctly, had that la nina mismatch.

I'll take my chances at a coastal hugger. I wouldn't mind a Jan 28-29, 2022 type storm.