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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    While it's a warm outlier I remember many a storm where the sleet line gets further north than expected
  2. Brian5671
    On the edge of the sleet line here but I think it gets here eventually. 10-12 before that however at least taking a blend of the models
  3. Brian5671
    RGEM holding is huge. Icon a tick north-but looks like a burp run on the NAM hopefully
  4. Brian5671
    N and W of NYC do fine-the cutbacks are city, LI and alot of NJ
  5. Brian5671
    NAM is good with thermals so can't throw it out-but if nothing else moves towards it-then I'd be skeptical
  6. Brian5671
    New York City: 7 Boston 15 Philadelphia 6 Washington DC 6 Hartford 14 Albany 10 Your city Fairfield CT 12
  7. Brian5671
    No slop with this one-powdery snow with some sleet on top
  8. Brian5671
    Central NJ will be tough to forecast-even an hour or two different in mixing is the difference b/w 3-5 add'l inches
  9. Brian5671
  10. Brian5671
    it ends at 60 hrs...still going after that
  11. Brian5671
    helps that the waters off NJ are a bit cooler than normal...every little bit helps right?!?!
  12. Brian5671
    Need to see the other models move towards it before I bite
  13. Brian5671
    GFS develops the coastal further offshore which helps keep everyone snow
  14. Brian5671
    This is where we say the GFS is a good model and that it nailed such and such event
  15. Brian5671
    Where do you see 2 feet?
  16. Brian5671
    1AM monday I don't really see a dry slot. The coastal hopefully takes over and flings some moisture back
  17. Brian5671
    Even at that most take the high end. If NWS says 6-12 the average joe says "we are getting 12 inches of snow"
  18. Brian5671
    1' possible but not enough QPF for 2 feet
  19. Brian5671
    how do we get something historic? Seems like an inch of QPF so even best case 15 inches if all snow
  20. Brian5671
    GFS was too cold for the last event 12/26-27
  21. Brian5671
    The wildcard is the coastal-if that forms and starts to move NE the colder mid levels may stay for areas especially north of the city
  22. Brian5671
    From suppression to mixing in 24 hrs...lol At least we are getting the storm-suppression with 10 degree cold would have sucked royally
  23. Brian5671
    Climo. How many storms do we get that are 100% snow. This is a SWFE which often flips to non snow at the end
  24. Brian5671
    that's great but it's the mid levels that matter. No one is raining. Surface will be plenty cold.
  25. Brian5671
    Its the mid levels. Those will warm-it's just a matter of when.
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