Krs4Lfe

Not sure Central Park will get more than that. Precip seems to have fallen apart and then we dry slot before rain tonight. Oh well. Still under 12” for the season here.

Rain comes in later tonight I assume ? Maybe Central park makes it over 1”. That’s a dream but I doubt it.

Still snowing here in Bayside, I’d expect we turn to rain in an hour or so. Should make it to about 1”

Light snow here in Bayside. Nice coating on everything except the roads. Mix line is in Central NJ, I’d expect to change to rain within 2 hours here. Maybe we’ll make it to 1”

Moderate snow here in Bayside. Around 33-34 degrees so nothing sticking. I doubt Central Park even sees an inch from this, ideally if it snowed after sunset there would be less sun angle issue and maybe it would accumulate in Manhattan. Feels colder than what it actually is out here.

How does the pattern look going forward after any potential wintry mischief next week? La Nina’s usually feature a quick shift to Spring, I don’t see why there would be anything different this year

With the primary low so far west, it will be pretty difficult to get a decent thump here in NYC. That's a strong warm nose, and then we get so warm that it turns to plain rain, and 1-2" of it. Considering temperatures will be warm tomorrow, and the wintry mix looks to start before sunset, I doubt anyone in NYC gets over 1 slushy inch. Which means at Central Park, it'll be registered as a dusting.

With a screaming northern jet, I doubt anyone in the northeast will see something significant from the storm signal between the 17th and 20th. We’ve seen all season how the fast northern stream has not been able to align with vortexes within the southern stream, and without a phase, most places north of the southern mid-Atlantic will struggle to see anything significant. Proceed at your own risk with any large storm depictions. The base state is for a fast northern stream bringing light events across the northern tier. Never good to bet against the base state

Finished with around 2.5" tops here in Bayside

Light to moderate snow now in Bayside. Roads covered now. Should continue like this for a few more hours, get us to 2”. I guess what we all expected anyway

This snow looks so peaceful, it’s unfortunate that it’s all going to wash away Thursday morning and then Saturday with all that rain and temps in the 50s according to the Euro. Toasty

Looks like Manhattan, Bronx, and north Queens will get fringed, would be surprised if Central Park eeks out more than 1” from this. Looks like very light rates over the western and northern part of NYC,

I’m surprised, it’s coming down nicely here in Bayside.

What strikes me as more interesting is the lack of snowfall over most of CONUS last season and this season. A fast northern stream provides the goods only for the far north of CONUS/Great Lakes and then when the cold air finally comes, it's the south that reaps the benefits. Is it better than 2024 winter and 2023 winter? Heck yes, because those winters barely even felt like winter because all the snow came in 1 week and there was barely any cold around except for maybe 2 arctic blasts each season. That being said, 10' for the season thus far is abysmal in NYC. Not as bad as 2024,2023,2020, and 2012. Those were torch years with like 1 moderate snow event each year. But with the warming climate, it's so hard to get a colder than average winter and the 1 year that we finally managed to do it, it barely accompanies any snow. It's incredible, but hopefully next winter is better. I know it sounds funny that it seems like I'm writing off the rest of this winter, but it's almost mid-Feb, and the pattern doesn't look too great for the rest of Feb (as in, it looks like more of the same that we've had all winter), except it will naturally become warmer as we head into March. The crux of winter is already behind us, with so little to show for it.

I think It might be our last snowfall for the winter…period. This winter has shown its cards. If we were meant to get a decent snowfall we would have gotten it by now or we would be actively tracking it by now. Last year and this year have been quite inactive across CONUS except for a few exceptions. Even 2023 (which was historically mild here) had record snow from west coast to Upper Midwest. Bismarck and Minneapolis had like 100” inches I think, an all time record. Great Lakes and Deep South have been winning, but past 2 years CONUS wide hasn’t been much. The flow is just too fast, until the northern stream slows down we’ll be left with shredders.

Yeah our next hope for any snow after tonight is maybe around the 16-20th when that storm signal keeps popping up ?? Possibly

So I assume that there’s no chance of snow Wednesday night before all the rain on Thursday ?

As to be expected the NAM is always over amped. What does it show for any potential Wednesday night?

I think the problem we will continue to see is that weather models latch onto changes in atmospheric patterns but tend to overdo them. What initially appears to be a somewhat favorable pattern for colder and snowy weather is exaggerated by the models. As time approaches, the models adjust and realize it’s just a slight change in the atmosphere. This leads to moderation in their depiction, which often results in the perception that all the models are failing. As the forecast lead time shortens, the depicted weather pattern ends up being much less significant than originally predicted. Since March 2022, we’ve often discussed how patterns look favorable, even though they haven’t produced anything substantial in our area. The only notable event was a blizzard in New England in 2022, along with several snowstorms for southern regions. Meanwhile, much of the upper Mid-Atlantic has missed out, largely due to either coastal huggers or inland cutters. These storms have been infrequent, and the past two winters were unusually warm. This winter was substantially colder by comparison, which resulted in enough suppression to bring heavy snow to the Deep South but very little to our region. Now that temperatures have moderated slightly, we’re seeing light snow events. However, the pattern still doesn’t favor anything significant. If a major storm were likely, it probably would have already materialized or been clearly depicted by the models by now. After the light snow expected tomorrow night, we may have another shot at snow Wednesday night before rain washes it away, similar to last week. After that, it appears we will either experience cutters—like the one expected this weekend—or suppression as colder weather returns. As February transitions into March, with average temperatures climbing, we will need a below-average temperature pattern to get more than a marginal snow event. Over the past six years, we’ve seen a tenuous setup where conditions have rarely struck the proper balance between suppression and the SER. As a result, storms often track too far south or are suppressed altogether, yielding little meaningful snow in our area. I don’t see this changing for the remainder of the season. After the small snow events over the next few days, I think we’re done for a while unless a bigger storm develops in about 10 days. Even then, it may likely become more of an inland event. Nature seems to have a long memory, and I doubt incremental changes in our favor will fix the current pattern until the Pacific flow slows down. This is evident in the fact that much of the nation, including last winter and this year, has seen a significant lack of snowfall. The "bowling ball" type storms that typically traverse the country have been almost nonexistent due to the increased Pacific flow. Moving forward, any large snowstorm that models depict more than five days in advance should be viewed with skepticism—it’s likely just model noise attempting to signal a slightly more conducive pattern for snow, which, based on recent years, probably won’t come to fruition.

I think everyone’s version of a good winter is different. Sure this winter has been colder than normal and definitely the coldest we’ve seen since last decade. But 10” of snow so far is almost nothing for these parts, when the average per year is generally 27-30”. It’ll take a KU just to reach average this year. And it won’t happen. Some winters just show their cards early. This winter is one of them. We won’t have to worry about it in a few weeks though, spring is coming

That's the problem with taking every pattern depiction at face value. We've seen ad nauseum how many "great looking" patterns since winter 2022. They've scantly developed and when they have, there's so many failure modes that most of the storms either go to the south or the east. The rest of them are like SWFEs or cutters. I can tell you right now, it won't pan out the way as depicted. We would've had a decent snow so far if we were meant to this winter.

I heard that same thing being said in March 2022, late Feb 2023, and Feb 2024.

The key is to realizing that we shouldn't bet against the base state. We've had some light snowfalls this winter with everything big going north or south. If we haven't had a moderate-big one by now, I'd wager that it's going to be hard to get one later on.

I am too, but all that rain on Sunday will wash it all the way, and doesn't look like any snow is coming after that any time soon.

Part of the problem are our expectations. Some of us see a big snowstorm being modeled one week out and get all excited even though we know it's very unlikely to happen. Any time a good pattern is being depicted we all get excited, but the truth is usually somewhere in between. And now we see the same pattern regression, similar to mid February 2024, where the pattern looked promising but quickly regressed. The clues can often be seen earlier in the winter. Only minor snows through early Feb, when do we pack it in and admit not much else is changing? And then we see a big cutter this weekend, which some will say is "just gravy before the GREAT pattern sets in." None of the pattern this winter has been great, and it won't be. President's day storm? We've been talking about that for the past 3 winters, and each time it never happens