Krs4Lfe

I hope March is similar. We get enough warmth April to September. I want cold, dark, windy winters

Well, at some point there was going to be a thaw over here after three months of below average temperatures, regardless of whether it accompanied a big storm or not but ideally what we would want is for a cold regime to redevelop for the rest of March and give us a chance at some snow considering March is a warmer month. It’s pretty much impossible for it to snow with the average temperatures.

Does it look like the pattern is active across CONUS? because if the pattern is still active across the country with an injection of cold air maybe something can work out for these parts but without that activity across the country which has been lacking for much of the winter it’s hard to get something over here

Normally I wouldn’t say that but this winter has shown its cards. And there’s no doubting the pattern regression after this storm. Looking at the long range looks like nothing but mild temps for these parts, looks pretty inactive nationwide actually

When do we throw the white flag in and say that it’s not going to snow here for this one? What an incredible letdown this was, compounded by pattern regression for the rest of winter. I think yesterday was last time NYC probably sees anything measurable for rest of season

We will. You know we will. Can this finally make us stop posting 360 hour pattern depictions and saying every pattern looks like 2014 or 2015? We’re going right to spring after next week, you can tell by the lack of posts about the future pattern. If it looked somewhat good, we would have seen the usual hype already

That’s all the background state supported. Rule of thumb, if you don’t see a big storm by late January, you probably won’t see one all season. The two systems in early Jan that hit mid Atlantic were suppressed, and then the south cashed in, and then we have had a few slop storms. Why bet against the way this winter has gone, just because of pretty looking storm maps? I think everyone learned their lesson after this one

Storms will oftentimes “come back” on modeling when there’s an impetus to. Jan 2016 was one of the biggest examples of that. In that case, the confluence was just being depicted too strongly. But here, the ULL continues to be depicted too far east and running out ahead of the SW, kicking it off the shore without gaining latitude. Unless that ULL aligns with the SW, there will be minimal impacts for anyone in the Northeast, if any snow at all. Considering we are 3 days away from the “storm” we have sufficiently run out of time.

Maybe some increased clouds Wednesday night. Otherwise there’s no event

Yeah the midatlantic forum is the best at analysis but maybe that’s because they’ve been getting the goods this winter lol. New England forum is like the Wild West, probably because they’re still waiting for a big one also. But here, we’ve been wedged in between some decent snow to our north and snow to our south. But I could see yesterday being our last snow of the season. Cold looks to break down quickly in late Feb, and going into March, we would need that cold to help us out

Pattern never supported a big one. The ULL is just too far east. This is what happens when you fall for pretty Storm maps instead of realizing that the base state doesn’t support one. It’s a shame, it fools even the best among us

What sucks the most about this storm going OTS is that It was probably our last chance for snow for the rest of winter. March looking nice and toasty. 3 months of cold and all we get is 12” from it. No wonder the warmer seasons of 2024 and 2023 has almost nothing.

Yeah JB gets it disastrously wrong. Good metrologies but I feel like something has changed with him over the past 5 years

This is what happens when we do modelology instead of meteorology. we can post all these pretty maps of good pattern depictions and of storms that deep down we know won’t come to fruition because the base state of the winter and the upper level patterns and do not support it, but we all want clicks and we all want to look at something that looks nice while abandoning all reasoning about while this winter has performed poorly at least in the snow department for our sub forum. and why it will continue to do so because the background state has not changed and we are looking at quick pattern regression in late month and early March after the storm threat passes. Pretty model depictions and depictions of storms aren’t gonna cut it. That is modelology not meteorology and that’s all we’ve been doing since 2022

Pattern regression after Mid-Feb, just like we saw last year. Rest assured, when you don't see pattern maps being posted here, it's because they're not good. Otherwise we would have seen "buckle up" "get ready" or "it's coming." Even though NYC only had 2-3" the past week despite the multiple waves and systems. SnowGoose has been spot on

The worst thing is that we go right to Spring in the beginning of March, Our "great looking pattern" that "only begins in mid-Feb with lots of opportunities" is one southern slider storm, no storm at end of month like the pattern hinted at, and then Spring comes beginning of March (which is the best opportunity in March for snow because average temps are still somewhat cold enough.) It's a repeat of the pattern from late Feb 2024, March 2022, and late Feb-March 2023. I'm not sure why we thought this would be any different? Because a 360 hour map shows a trough in the east and ridge in the west? No way to slice this, our coldest winter in years ended up bringing 12" only to NYC. Snowfall wise it's barely better than last year. But yeah lets say "this pattern reminds me of 2013-14" again.

Not sure why this is a surprise to anyone, the northern stream is too fast and that prevents a phase with the storm coming into lower Midwest. It's been the story for most of this winter, similar to the 2 storms in January. Unless the shortwave becomes stronger and the confluence backs off and allows for a phase, this storm is a southern slider *at best.*

There’s no mechanism to make this move back northwest. The northern stream acts as a kicker and if it’s not perfectly places with the storm, then we end up with a southern slider. Aside from 2021 and Jan 2022, the fast PAC jet since 2019 has been in charge. That won’t change

This is what happens when we bet against the base state. Southern sliders have been the theme all winter. Why would that change now? And there’s not much to bring this system northwest with the blocking in the wrong place. It is what it is, just unfortunate because this was our best shot all season.

I just wish we could make it to normal snowfall. If that happens, I don’t care how warm it gets in March. But we’re on track to finish lower than 2022 season, I’d like more than that

That being said, I haven’t seen much on social media or on beee lately about the pattern after this storm threat. Ideally, we would have a trough in the east but not the TPV pressing too close so that would prevent suppression while still giving us enough cold air to battle warm march temps

As long as the pattern is good, opportunities can pop up whenever. I’d rather have a good looking pattern knowing opportunities may come at any time. Big march in La Niña is usually full blown Spring

One thing to look for is if the pattern regresses as time goes on later this month. Feb 2024 had rapid pattern regression and March 2022 also. Last week we were all talking about how great the pattern looked going into early March. Haven’t heard much of that now, I’d assume that after this threat we go back to suppression? Even though it’s naturally warmer at that point because it’ll be March but maybe that can help us

Today’s snow barely existed. Clear trends today towards the northern stream pushing this one out too far for most of us. Again, it’s hard to bet against the base state. If we didn’t get a big one so far this season, we likely won’t at all

Around 1” here in Bayside. That’s it for this one