Krs4Lfe

What’s your final prediction for seasonal snowfall this year. I still think NYC ends up with 15 at most

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed throuhh the end of the month is cold air. GFS has a larger storm just offshore for the 18th. Euro has nothing. All models are signaling a larger storm around the 23rd. Looks like colder air sets in on Wednesday; ending our thaw, and then arctic air comes in next weekend and stays (probably some slight moderation at time) throuhh the end of the month. Very active long range signal. Not just for here but finally for central and south US as well. Will winter finally begin for those places?

Euro is closer with the 18th, has a coastal storm just offshore. Reaffirms that the 16th is dead though. Some inland snowfall but rain/snow showers for most of us. CMC Ensembles really like the 18th, probably because the OP likes it so much too. I've never given too much weight to ensembles because they generally follow the op more often than not. CMC and Euro show ample cold through the end of the month and numerous northern stream events. My one criticism: too many vorticies and energy flying around. Don't think anything will be able to consolidate like this. No consolidations means larger storms are off the table

I remember that big 1/7 storm. And the 1/11 pattern change (didn't happen, we're still above average temps today, but the cool down is coming on 14th-15th), and the 1/16 storm. Models always rush a pattern change (whether good or bad). But yeah what was supposed to be a good january is now reduced to the back half of the month. Like I said earlier though, if we can get a turnaround like late Jan 2021, late Jan 2015 (which was nearly snowless until that epic pattern change), Feb 2013, or Feb 2006, we'll be in good shape. But that's a very tall ask.

GFS won't get it done for the 18th either. Long range looks cold and active though.

GFS even more disjointed for the 16th. Brings moderate snow inland, some rain showers over here. What a turn of events. What a massive cave

ICON wants nothing to do with the 18th threat. As unlikely as it seemed a few days ago, we might have to punt most of January. I remember all the talk about winter cancel and winter over in January 2021 after that month was dry and mild. Similarly, there was evidence of a big pattern change and a shift to colder and stormier across the US by end of January and would last through February. That panned out very well, and it saved winter. But years like 2021, 2013, 2006, 2015 are few and far between. If the 18th doesn't work out either, it's quite possible that winter has shown its cards and it'll be time to pack up. Long range Euro and GFS looks great with ample cold and chances for snow through early Feb and it doesn't seem to be losing the pattern change either. But who's to say the rest of the chances for snow won't go the way the 16th and 18th went?

Agreed, and I don't know what's up with March this decade but there's only been snow in March 2022. The rest of the years have been snowless in March. March 2020 and 2023 was good for New England but mainly rain for us.

Anecdotally, this is the 2nd slowest start to winter storm names by the weather channel. I'm sure I'll get weenied for this, but I'm just introducing this evidence to show how dry it has been this winter. The slowest start to winter storm names by the weather channel was last winter, 2025. The weather channel isn't the best at adhering to their own criteria when naming the storms (2 million+ people have to be under winter storm warning in order for it to be named), but they're pretty good at adhering to their criteria aside from a few exceptions. Just goes to show how dry the past 2 winters have been. In 2023 and 2024, the lack of cold air was a problem for many east of the Plains. But in 2025 and 2026, there hasn't been a shortage of cold, there's been a shortage of precipitation. Almost like winter in the 1930s lol

I still think the only thing going for us is that NYC had a good december, and that tends to correlate well with the rest of winter (when it's a La Nina winter). But even now, we have fallen below average, and it just sees so hard to score something over here. We'll have to wait for a Feb 2015, Feb 2021, or Feb 2013 scenario. In all 3 of those years, most of December and January was a dud until end of the month and then we had a wintry February to bring us up to average or above average.

Looks mild and dry as far as the I can see. The threat for the 16th is over, and with that, the threat for the 18th is over. So now we will look beyond the third week of the month for any semblance of wintry weather across the US (aside from the Great Lakes in northern New England, which continues to clean up very nicely). Looks quite cold in the long range with the cold air, returning in a few days across much of the eastern, central, south US. Normally that would accompany increased chances for wintry weather, but we’ve seen how that doesn’t always play out. This has been one of the most mild starts to a January across the US that I can remember. Even in the 2023 winter and the 2024 winter, while they were in good for the vast majority of us, there was an active train of storms across the west and central US. Similar to January 2020 which was also quite mild and not snowy for the vast majority of us still had an active train of storms across the northern tier. This January has none of the above and looking into the foreseeable future, remains as dry as it has been. Remarkable

GFS ends the threat, brutal cave to all other guidance. Winter still nowhere to be found

Regardless of how the potential snow event pans out on the 16th, some legit cold is going to drop into CONUS, east of the Rockies through southeast. Many places east of Missouri River will remain cold throuhh end of month and throuhh beginning of February according to models and the CPC. Inherently; that should lead to increased chances for wintry weather, especially for those in the south and central US where winter has been absent. If these trends continue, it can be a real winter redeemer for much of the US (except from the Rockies to west coast where it seems destined that winter will not arrive this season)

Yeah I’d lean in the camp where most of the models are. GFS has been on an island the entire time. Not sure how it impacts the wave behind it but I think if this continues to trend deamplified then the following wave would follow suit

Neither is ICON. Light precip at best. At some point, something has to break. We’re 3.5 days away from go time, and GFS (NAM most likely too if it was fully in range) shows a good sized storm. Euro, UK, CMC, Icon show almost nothing. Not sure I’d want to be in the GFS/Nam camp. Upper levels aloft look pretty good but it’s not translating to surface.