Krs4Lfe

Sometimes guidance can correctly latch onto big cold blasts or warmups far in the distance. I remember how well the January 2019 cold blast and early February 2019 cold blast was forecast. Got down to near 0 here in NYC. Down near -30 in Chicago. Very impressive cold blasts that winter

Yeah he had great insights on 33andrain.com when the forum was online. I haven't been there since they switched to discord Spring 2023. Do they still exist?

Pattern still looks to very northern stream dominant for the foreseeable future. Lots of low pressure north of Great Lakes and east Canada. Could yield a few light snow events for New England and interior Northeast, but still no signs of any amplified solutions because the northern stream is very dominant. Definitely a cold start to January, but I would put pause on a larger snow event until we can get the western ridge to spike a bit more. If we can get that +PNA, we might be in good shape. Until then, maybe some snow shower events through first week of January, likely nothing more than that

Quite the storm coming into the Midwest. Significant snow for Minneapolis, blizzard conditions from Dakotas through UP Michigan. Even Detroit’s forecast calls for a few inches of snow on Monday and gusts up to 50 mph. Could be blizzard like conditions for that area too. Same with Milwaukee Sunday night and Monday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if places outside the urban cities are upgraded to blizzard warnings (was already done for the Minneapolis suburbs). Big time lake effect will kick in Tuesday through Thursday as well. Good to see a big storm to change up the stagnant warm pattern across most of CONUS

Looks more like snow squalls coming from Great Lakes and up north. Not really a clipper system. Spotty precip at best, just dry and strung out

A potential fail mode or the next 2 weeks is if the pacific jet extension goes too far. We are having that jet extension soon and it causes the ridge to roll over and finally brings a change to the near coast to coast torch that has been occurring. However, if the jet extension goes too far, then we'll be flooded with pacific air which will still result in warm temperatures. Hopefully, that's not the case but it is good that we're having some pac jet extension otherwise we would be stuck in this current pattern which isn't conducive for cold or snow for most of US.

We finally have a big storm heading towards the Upper Midwest. That was probably the pattern changer that much of CONUS needed. In the wake, there will be artic air and renewed chances for snow from an active STJ running into cold air. We were definitely in the minority over the past 2 weeks, much of CONUS was torching. Similar to early Jan 2024, looks like we have a big storm over the northern tier to shake up that death ridge over Central US. Without that ridge there, it becomes much easier for most of the country to have more chances for snow.

All other spots around them got just about 4” of snow. Would make sense that they did as well.

They will measure again at 1 PM but it will likely be compacted by then so I doubt any change

So now NYC has in between 7 to 10 inches of snow this month and about 5° colder than normal so definitely a snowy and cold month. It’s a pretty good way to start off winter.

Just measured about 5” here in Bayside. Definitely must have snowed a few inches last night. I guess that wasn’t a monumental bust; just on the low end of guidance. Looks to be a widespread 4-6 across NYC, north NJ, LI, coastal CT with 6-8” across west Chester.

Looks like snow is winding down here in Bayside. Definitely in between 3.5 and 4”, a general 2-4” across the city. Maybe Central Park comes in closer to 3” at 7 am

Sbout 3” and counting here in north Queens. Still coming down a bit too

Ocean effect only helps south shore I assume? Unless there’s some sound effect snow too

Too bad they’re hauling so fast. Another hour or so (maybe 2) and we’re done