Krs4Lfe

Yeah last year NYC was able to get 1-1.5" of snow a few days before christmas and then christmas eve as well. Light, clipper like events. I don't think any vortex will dig down deep enough to bring big snow to Northeast this month because it's very northern stream dominant at the moment, but you can always get a little clipper/cold front related snow action

I remember that one. There was nothing to show for it, just how there's been almost nothing to show for it since all the great winter patterns that have been promised since that winter, 3 years in a row. Looks to be cold but inactive through mid month, and then we have to hopefully obtain 4" of snow in the second half of the month. By then, we have to hope that the mid month warmup isn't too warm for snow. That being said, we can easily have a colder than normal month but with little to no snow to show for it.

Maue has become quite the hype over the past few years as far as weather Twitter goes. Long range (over next few weeks) looks active which is good. It’s good that we have the cold air (though tjat will warm up a bit in mid month, and I’m sure we will torch around Christmas) but timing the cold air during the storminess is a hard sell over in these parts

Let's hope we can get 4" here in December in NYC, or the chances of an average or above average snowfall this winter significantly decrease.

A fast pacific jet will lead to a cutter/hugger and then suppressed storm track. Each year that features record marine heatwaves in north pacific just compounds this. At least we get some real cold on the backside of this storm, but like all the other winters over past 7 years, it's hard to get that to connect with the timing of the storm. So we do warm/wet, and cold/dry.

I'd expect more of the same here. Even with cold air around, we get warmups during the storms and then cold/dry afterwards. Winter is exposing it's cards here. Good track, cold air around, but warmup during the storm.

Yes once that trough moves over Alaska in the 2nd week of December, I’d expect some milder air from the pacific to flood CONUS and lead to a moderation of temps and probably a pause in the storminess. Hopefully we can cash in before that happens

Cold air is nice and all, but we’ll need some stormy weather to accompany it. Otherwise it might be warm and wet, and then cold and dry, which has been a recurring these for the last 7 years except for 2021. But hopefully, as long as things remain active across CONUS, we will get our share when the time comes.

Unfortunately, that’s just one run. But what is persistent is the trough over Alaska. Ideally you would want to see a ridge over Alaska heading into the Arctic which will force the coldest air into CONUS. Mind you, colder than normal temps don’t always equal snow. December 2022 was colder than normal too, and was quite stormy across CONUS with significant snow storms. But for the northeast; it was mainly rain. The month can be cold overall, but when it counts (when there is precipitation nearby, it might be too warm down here for snow.) That being said, the long range looks to be stormy enough across CONUS so hopefully that can coincide with the colder temps and make some snow over here.

The good news is that most models seem to want to keep a trough over the east for most of December, and that warmup in mid-December looks a bit less likely now than it was just a week ago. However, and I believe this is a big caveat, the trough over Alaska continues to show up. I don’t think that’s a good thing because that means at least some mild pacific air will infiltrate CONUS. I’m not sure what the eastern extent of that mild air penetration will be, but if there was a ridge over Alaska instead of a trough, I think we would be in better shape. That being said, it’s good to see winter storms to our west and our north. This fall was very inactive outside of one Great Lakes snowstorm on Veterans Day, and it’s good to see that has changed. I’ll always take my chances with a colder and stormier pattern. At some point, something usually breaks and we get something down here…. Eventually

Just simply not enough cold air y for this storm to produce any accumulation likely south of I-87 or I-84. High pressure is moving out too quickly, and our source region is still well above normal because of a warm fall. That being said. I’d definitely say that once you reach NJ/PA border; you’ll definitely see at least a few inches out that way. Expecting nothing but cold rain for most of us on here

That’s the real killer here because if there was more sea ice, then it definitely would’ve been colder and northern Canada, which bleeds down to the rest of Canada and is the source region for the Northeast’s cold air. With such a low arctic sea ice, it limits the amount of cold air that can be tapped into in the northeast and that ends up screwing over locations along the coast until climatology becomes cold enough later in December and January. That’s just one of the many reasons why Tuesday’s storm will likely be rain from most south of I 84 because they’re simply isn’t enough cold air around.

No reason to have thought otherwise this early in the season. Central Park still waiting for its first freeze. Almost unheard of to enter December without having a freeze. Won’t be confident in any snow depictions until we get some real cold air in the region

I think we can make the argument that the GFS model is probably a bit too amplified with this system. That being said, I think if you want to have any shot at snow or an all snow event, you would definitely have to be further inland with this one. I’m skeptical of this storm even starting out with any snow down towards I 95 and closer to the coast because the high pressure is moving out of the way pretty quickly, and there is nothing to prevent the storm from becoming amplified enough where the warm air overpowers most of the region except for those further inland

I don’t think snow is in the cards for many of us anywhere near I-95, along I-95, or east of it. You would need high pressure to be anchored to funnel cold down into an amplifying storm, and climatology isn’t in our favor this early in the season anyway. For I-84 and north, I’d say it’s definitely likely they’ll get some snow out of it. But south of there is quite difficult this early in the season, especially without much cold air to work with