Krs4Lfe

Yeah even with GFS digging bias, it’s still positive throuhh because of the fast flow. I think if we were to get anything, you’d need rapid changes. It’s still 4 days away but still. Thungs are trending closer but it’s far from good enough

The GFS loves to dig and amplify stuff thouhh. Look what it did January 2025 and what it did for 1/16. It’s a known bias. Wouldn’t put any credence into it

AI GFS showing a storm offshore, moderate precipitation for Sunday during afternoon and evening. You want more than ICON and AI GFS in your corner thouhh or you end up with a 1/16 repeat

Was just about to say that Icon has white rain for us on Sunday with some moderate snow inland. Also, we might catch a few snow showers Thursday evening during the anafront system.

I’m surprised at how long this thaw is. Really defined the first half of the month aside from the first 6 days that were average or well below average. Tomorrow is the 14th and we’ll still be 10 degrees above average. At this point it’s not a thaw, it’s a running theme that CONUS has been quite warm this month

GFS OP has the storm just offshore for Sunday. It made the trough sharper so it’s closer

AI GFS is closer with Sunday and looks much colder. But after what the GFS did with our snow/rain showers on Thursday and hyped it into a big snowstorm, it’s hard to believe

Icon trended west but the boundary layer is torched, so it’s rain. Running out of time to turn this into a snow event down to the coast.

In fact, latest Icon model has rain and 40 degrees for Sunday the 18th. Steady snow inland. Time is running out

Correct. Cold”er” seems like a lock; but clearly not that cold because it can’t even support snow Very reminiscent of January and February 2019. Warm and wet and cold and dry.

Colder weather looks to return within the next few days. But the 1/6-1/11 thaw ended up turning into 1/6-1/15 thaw. Temps weren't too warm, made it to 52 or 53 a few times, but the duration is a bit sizeable. That being said, the cold air coming down the pike will likely push the month below average in terms of temps

Regular Euro has a storm offshore on the 18th, nothing on the 20th, and then two cutters during the 3rd-4th week of january. Euro dumps a trough out west allowing the storms to cut

Euro AI coming in with light snow on the 18th, and then cold and dry through the remainder of the month. The bulk of the storms and precip stays to the south with a few southern sliders. Very cold and dry (akin to late Jan 2025) look for the rest of CONUS.

CMC has light snow on the 18th, and a follow up clipper on the 20th. GFS ensembles average a few inches for the 18th, but ensembles usually follow the OP. Ensembles had several inches of snow on Saturday for the 16th when the OP was going crazy for the 16th. Either way, the long range looks quite cold from the Dakotas through the southeast. In the 2000s and 2010s, that would mean several snowstorms. We'll see what happens

Again, looking at the GFS, some light snow on Sunday the 18th, and a light clipper passing through on January 20th. Nothing big in the long range. We'll see if there is still a signal for the 23rd. But losing the 16th resulted in losing the 18th as well. So were are 0 for 3 this month. Nothing on 1/7, nothing on 1/16, and nothing on 1/18. Looks cold and dry after that