Krs4Lfe

Well this weekends snow is a lesson in how storm threats almost always look better when there’s significant lead time. Look at what happened to the 16th. Once we lost that, we lost the 18th for the most part. Both looked great last Saturday. Both are dead. Very easy to get caught up with the pretty colors. The devil is in the details

NAM and RRFS look pretty good. Icon came in better but still almost nothing verbatim. CMC up next

You have been spot on with most of your takes this winter

ICON is a whiff for Sunday. Came a bit west from where it was, but still a whiff. Let's see what the other models have to say. At some point, I don't think they can keep showing a whiff if this thing is real, we're 48 hours left. I'd hate to be the NWS with this one.

Crazy because we just had a country wide blowtorch, and in fact, most of the central and west US have been in a blowtorch since November. After the end of the month, long range looks ugly, but it could be just reverting back to its La Niña bias

Steven DiMartino (NYNJPA weather) and Bernie Rayno say no snow except for east New England. They said we might actually get more on Saturday than Sunday lol

UKMET is completely strung out for Sunday. Has nothing for us. Has 1-2" for most of us for Saturday but temps look like low-mid 30s so I doubt any of that is actually accumulating. Now we are down to the Euro.

CMC has light snow for most (moderate snow for east new england) ICON has light snow (moderate snow for east new england) GFS has snow off shore Just waiting on UKMET and Euro

Cold front moving through later day. That sets up the colder half of the month after 9 days with above average temperatures. I wonder what the anomalies were like for NYC during this period. Had to have been around average of +10 for the past 9 days. Felt real toasty after a colder November through New Years regime

We will need the northern stream to relax, but that won’t happen because of fast pacific flow. That stems from a very warm northern Pacific Ocean, especially during the summertime, as we’ve seen from the marine heat waves. This is directly linked to climate change. Unless the northern stream slows down and can phase with the southern jet, we will not have coastal storm tracks, and we will not be able to nickel and dime our way to average snowfall. Late Jan through early February won’t work out either.

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue

NAM has almost Nothing for Sunday. Not a great sign considering how over amped the nam usually is

Until the record breaking northern stream of the pacific jet subsides; like in 2021 and Jan 2022, we will not reach average snowfall because there are no KU tracks. The more that the western pacific warms during the summer (record breaking marine heatwaves every year now), the lower chance we have of a KU. Might become the new normal, if it isn’t already

I say further east. I think that’s the only way this storm can trend. And I think Saturday’s snow negatively interferes with Sunday and pushes the boundary level further offshore. I could see it being moderate snow for east New England and Maine though