Krs4Lfe

Looks mild and dry as far as the I can see. The threat for the 16th is over, and with that, the threat for the 18th is over. So now we will look beyond the third week of the month for any semblance of wintry weather across the US (aside from the Great Lakes in northern New England, which continues to clean up very nicely). Looks quite cold in the long range with the cold air, returning in a few days across much of the eastern, central, south US. Normally that would accompany increased chances for wintry weather, but we’ve seen how that doesn’t always play out. This has been one of the most mild starts to a January across the US that I can remember. Even in the 2023 winter and the 2024 winter, while they were in good for the vast majority of us, there was an active train of storms across the west and central US. Similar to January 2020 which was also quite mild and not snowy for the vast majority of us still had an active train of storms across the northern tier. This January has none of the above and looking into the foreseeable future, remains as dry as it has been. Remarkable

GFS ends the threat, brutal cave to all other guidance. Winter still nowhere to be found

Regardless of how the potential snow event pans out on the 16th, some legit cold is going to drop into CONUS, east of the Rockies through southeast. Many places east of Missouri River will remain cold throuhh end of month and throuhh beginning of February according to models and the CPC. Inherently; that should lead to increased chances for wintry weather, especially for those in the south and central US where winter has been absent. If these trends continue, it can be a real winter redeemer for much of the US (except from the Rockies to west coast where it seems destined that winter will not arrive this season)

Yeah I’d lean in the camp where most of the models are. GFS has been on an island the entire time. Not sure how it impacts the wave behind it but I think if this continues to trend deamplified then the following wave would follow suit

Neither is ICON. Light precip at best. At some point, something has to break. We’re 3.5 days away from go time, and GFS (NAM most likely too if it was fully in range) shows a good sized storm. Euro, UK, CMC, Icon show almost nothing. Not sure I’d want to be in the GFS/Nam camp. Upper levels aloft look pretty good but it’s not translating to surface.

Long range GFS is the things that weenies dreams are made of. But it keeps showing a very active period with a few distinct events for several cycles now. 16th, 19th, 22nd, and 25th, with no breaks in the cold in between. Been quite consistent so you’d think it’s onto something. However; it also had NYC at 8” of snow for the last storm that gave us 4” so maybe not

Mainly cloudy in the city all day today in Windsor picking up now too, but yes, this was definitely a big thaw. The temperatures never went above the low 50s, but for what would normally be the coldest time of the year, it felt pretty darn warm. Also, it persisted for quite a bit and when all is said and done on Wednesday, it’ll be about eight days of a thaw, but we’ve seen much bigger ones

Dare I try to be the voice of reason, but even though the GFS has also backed off on, it’s insanely amplified solutions that it had on Friday and Saturday, there is still a legitimate possibility of pulling a moderate snow out of this one. I don’t think it’s one of those scenarios where either you get a blockbuster storm or you get nothing at all, this one is close enough that it can trend to a moderate storm, particularly along the coast.

Oh yeah, that was absolutely an amazing winter and the numerous chances for snow in a row like on the euro model give flashbacks the 2014 and 2015 Winters, but I’m sure it’s not going to play out in that fashion. Still it’s good to see that they were ample chances for winter weather in the second half of this month showing up on the models.

That was one of the best Euro runs we've seen in a long time. The cold is re-established, and the wintry events from next week set up some sort of blocking feature in the Atlantic. Seems like ample chances for snow are coming over a generally colder temp regime starting around the 14th. I'm sure not all the snow events will come to fruition, but the more there is in the long range would increase our chances for winter weather.

We would need 16" more to get to that and about 21" more to reach average. A few moderate systems or one big one can get us there

I must say, even though I usually post horrible takes, the Euro is quite cold in the long range and the latest model suite doesn't dump a trough in the west after the 3rd week of january. Stays very cold, with waves riding along the arctic boundary. That depiction looks similar to 2014 and 2015 winters. Obviously I don't think the overall outcome will be the same, but hard to deny that it looks like very cold air is coming and several chances for precip.

We're getting closer to go time, only 5 days away, so models should be coalescing around a scenario. Whether that's a large storm offshore like the GFS or no storm like ICON, or something in between. Very interesting to see all the dry air though even on the GFS during the storm.

Yeah we just have to hope that the cold air which returns around 1/14 can set up some semblance of a wintry pattern. We thawed very well over the past week and a return to colder weather would ideally bring some chances for winter weather but we've seen stranger things happen at this point

The same northern stream issues we've had for a while now. It's too far east and can't phase, so no storm can come up the coast. Also pretty much ruins the chances for the storm after that too, everything is shunted too far east.