Krs4Lfe

Mainly cloudy in the city all day today in Windsor picking up now too, but yes, this was definitely a big thaw. The temperatures never went above the low 50s, but for what would normally be the coldest time of the year, it felt pretty darn warm. Also, it persisted for quite a bit and when all is said and done on Wednesday, it’ll be about eight days of a thaw, but we’ve seen much bigger ones

Dare I try to be the voice of reason, but even though the GFS has also backed off on, it’s insanely amplified solutions that it had on Friday and Saturday, there is still a legitimate possibility of pulling a moderate snow out of this one. I don’t think it’s one of those scenarios where either you get a blockbuster storm or you get nothing at all, this one is close enough that it can trend to a moderate storm, particularly along the coast.

Oh yeah, that was absolutely an amazing winter and the numerous chances for snow in a row like on the euro model give flashbacks the 2014 and 2015 Winters, but I’m sure it’s not going to play out in that fashion. Still it’s good to see that they were ample chances for winter weather in the second half of this month showing up on the models.

That was one of the best Euro runs we've seen in a long time. The cold is re-established, and the wintry events from next week set up some sort of blocking feature in the Atlantic. Seems like ample chances for snow are coming over a generally colder temp regime starting around the 14th. I'm sure not all the snow events will come to fruition, but the more there is in the long range would increase our chances for winter weather.

We would need 16" more to get to that and about 21" more to reach average. A few moderate systems or one big one can get us there

I must say, even though I usually post horrible takes, the Euro is quite cold in the long range and the latest model suite doesn't dump a trough in the west after the 3rd week of january. Stays very cold, with waves riding along the arctic boundary. That depiction looks similar to 2014 and 2015 winters. Obviously I don't think the overall outcome will be the same, but hard to deny that it looks like very cold air is coming and several chances for precip.

We're getting closer to go time, only 5 days away, so models should be coalescing around a scenario. Whether that's a large storm offshore like the GFS or no storm like ICON, or something in between. Very interesting to see all the dry air though even on the GFS during the storm.

Yeah we just have to hope that the cold air which returns around 1/14 can set up some semblance of a wintry pattern. We thawed very well over the past week and a return to colder weather would ideally bring some chances for winter weather but we've seen stranger things happen at this point

The same northern stream issues we've had for a while now. It's too far east and can't phase, so no storm can come up the coast. Also pretty much ruins the chances for the storm after that too, everything is shunted too far east.

And that area of above average snowfall and below average temperatures continues to shrink every day. It's been a year without winter west of the Mississippi river. And here in the northeast we've torched quite well this week. Colder weather appears to return this week which brings more warmth to the west. Been lots of talk about a 2013-2014 pattern setting up or 2014-2015, but this winter is one of the farthest from those.

Looks great at 500 but the precip shield is dried out because there is a double barrel low stealing the precip.

You would think the surface would respond to those mid level changes but it’s not

Icon looked great at 500, and the ridge was in perfect position with a closed off negatively tiled trough in Tennessee. But surface depiction just slides it right out to sea. Probably the Tpv lobe just dragging everything too far east

Still remarkable to me How non-snowy most of the US has been this winter. Even mid Atlantic places that started off early are now behind average. Aside from Midwest and northeast, only the mountainous west has had any snow (and not much of that either.) Just a total lack of snow and cold. Yes, I know, I say it often. But I think it’s worth being stated. This has been a non winter for the majority of the US. Winter never even started for most. Would take a repeated series of storms and cold shorts to bring this winter out of the gutter for most. There’s still plenty of time, but I think winter has shown it’s cards in those places

GFS is still on an island with its solutions. Ensembles arent biting too much, nor are the other operational models. Aside from GFS, the trough remains positive on most model guidance which argues against a coastal storm coming up the coast. And a lack of gulf moisture to tap into as well so it’s kind of a sheared out mess. I would not put credence into any big solutions for either the 16th or the 20th. Northern stream seems too fast