Krs4Lfe

Typical depiction of almost all winters since 2019. Endless can kicking. Each time there needs to be "a miracle" or "thread the needle" and then we move onto the next one. Until we get into March and we realize it's all over lol

I think the short range models are putting too much into the clipper on NYE. Seems like nothing but mood flakes until it hits the water and then maybe a few inches for Cape Cod and downeast Maine. Precipitation coming from a northwest origin tends to dry out big time. Sunday (verbatim as it is depicted currently) is just as dried out.

This sounds accurate. La Ninas are usually warmer than normal in February and torch in March. December and January are the best months for snowfall in a La Nina. Once you punt January (not saying we are, at least not yet) in a La Nina, you run into significant trouble for rest of winter. Now would be the month to cash in. In a La Nina, anything past end of January becomes more difficult.

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look

Yesterday we were talking about how a big storm was becoming more likely in that timeframe range. Now it looks like a repeat of cold/dry and warm/wet. Nothing to be happy about in the long range. That being said, it's still quite far away, and the pattern change looks likely, but probably doesn't happen soon enough for this storm to be what we wanted it to be

You'd think with that depiction that there would be at least 1" across NY metro and then once it hits the water, it would strengthen enough to reach a few inches in east New England. But the model depictions look so dried out

Welcome to the new normal. The flow is too fast for anything amplified. Too much storminess near the west coast doesn't let anything amplified to crawl up the coast like it used to in the 2010s and 2000s. Even when there is a -NAO so there's enough blocking, the flow is too fast and the northern stream can never phase with southern stream.

Agreed. This pattern is good for some lighter snows, but until we have a big PNA spike, no larger storm is making its way to our area. I think the OPs and the Ensembles were overzealous with the large storms they were depicting past few days. In reality, they were probably just signaling a pattern change, but the way models are….. you know the rest

As far as the sixth to the ninth goes, models took a big step back last night. Everything seemingly goes to the west and north or to the south and east of our area. That timeframe still looks good for a whole scale pattern change with a positive PNA spike over the west, which would lead to a trough and potential storm moving through the east. But unless the PNA spikes high enough, the storm will just glide out to sea, similar to several winter weather events from last winter. Seems like amplification can be a real problem in this pattern. Either way, that timeframe looks good for a pattern change, but it’s looking less good for a bigger snow event in our area. Overall, the timeframe looks pretty decent for us over here and it would be a shame if it did not produce because we don’t see many patterns set up like that during peak Climo.

Nothing but a few flurries likely on New Year’s Day. The Clippers are more just like a dried out frontal passage until it reaches the Cape Cod area and then it can drop a few inches. Becoming less and less likely that there is any accumulation in these parts at all.

That’s the lowest level of QPF. Closer to Massachusetts cape that’s some more QPF and could be light snow. Probably just flurries here

The snow showers and squalls from inland PA across New England are the real deal for through New Year’s Day. Heavier snow showers than usual and lake effect bands reaching farther inland than would normally result on the backside of a Great Lakes storm. Hopefully we can get some accumulation down here New Year’s Day but models have really backed off on that and it seems like a dried out frontal passage at best now

If we don’t see anything else by mid January, then I’d say your second call sbout mid winter is also correct. Early springs are typical with La Niña, probably no reason to not expect that with this one as well. The short range looks good for now but all it takes is for one ingredient to be off and then we punt the whole pattern. Let’s hope not

Nothing more than mood flakes most likely. Models have the tendency to overdo depictions of snow showers (which can perform very well for Upstate PA, NY and New England but completely dry out by the time they reach here. Either way, temps in the 20s all throughout so anything that does fall will stick but unlikely anything falls at all

This year definitely bucks the trend of increasing warmth between Christmas and New Years. It's one of our fastest warming times of the year in these parts. Still, with NYC receiving 7-8+ this month, that should bode well for the rest of winter in a La Nina