Krs4Lfe

To be fair, December 2021 in December 2023 we’re quite warm and mild for much of the country which was not similar to this month because this month featured colder and sometimes well colder than average temperatures for the eastern third of the US and the northern tier. And of course there were several snow events as well, which is also unlike December 2021 and December 2023. January 20 22 and January 20 24 got off to a rather stormy star, however remain generally stormy and colder for most of the country (although the impact on our snow totals that season is debatable), there was still plenty of cold air and active weather traversing CONUS. My only point in saying this is that the pattern can truly flip on a dime, like it did in those two instances. However, much of the warm and mild conditions during December 2023 in December 2021, I believe, was due to a jet extension which flooded the country with mild Pacific air. This month, there is an omega Ridge over the central US, which might make the pattern flip a bit more delayed and a bit trickier because it will require whole scale changes in the pacific in order to knock that ridge down and allow some storms and cold air to come back across the US. That being said, unlike December 2021 in December 2023, our source region (Canada) remains quite cold and snowy, so anytime the polar vortex becomes a bit disturbed or a ridge forms over the Arctic, it should force the cold air from Canada down into the US. So maybe we will see a big pattern change like January 2022 in January 2024 hopefully

I would assume it would have to be moving pretty quickly in order for accumulations to be that low ?

Well I think we’re in a very sensitive spot. If it shifts too far north then it’s just rain showers. If it shifts too far south then it’ll probably get shredded even more. Not sure the cards are there for us for this one

I’ll be honest, maybe it’s just the pessimistic side of me, but I have 0 confidence in much snow at all this winter. After so many bad winters, I find it plausible that we can have almost a total shutout. I see a strengthening PV coming up after new years, and a -NAO block but no help on pacific side. Long range looks like hot garbage to me, at a time where we are prime for our most snow. Looks terrible

Definitely with the low heading north of the area. Would be white rain to start And then dry slot . And considering central park is notorious for under measurement, it would be like nothing ever fell

That winter will always live in infamy here in NYC. Cold December, but no snow, and then a torch for rest of the season, with only like 3" of snow in February and a dusting in March. Northern new england through great lakes and out west had a great season though. Lots of record snows across Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and out west.

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous

This would be the death knells for Winter 2025-2026. Prime time when temps are the coldest, and there is a trough in west Canada and a dip in the jet stream across west/central US, and a ridge over east US. And remember, this is a smoothed ensemble mean. Once we get closer to the date, it won't be as smoothed and the differences between the trough in the west and the ridge in the east would likely be much greater. While the -NAO continues to improve, all other teleconnections remain where we don't want it, including a deepening -PNA. Without help from the PNA and the pacific, the -NAO will be almost meaningless

Verbatim looks like a dry slot over NYC, maybe some light snow but poor antecedent conditions would probably result in white rain with no accumulation. Would likely be a few inches of snow through New England though

Northern queens, nyc

334,000 people across the northeast without power right now. It peaked this afternoon around 400,000. winds were quite impressive from this storm lots of reports of 60 mph winds across Queens and Brooklyn, with winds in between 60 to 70 mph across Nassau and Suffolk. Definitely needed a high wind warning for Long Island and probably one for Queens too. Definitely over performed, the national weather service forecast as of last night were winds only up to 45 mph gusts today.

I remember anytime you saw a colder than normal winter month in the 2010s, there would be snow accompanying it, and lots of it. Yet somehow since 2019, each colder than normal winter month has been a suppressive and/or cutter pattern everytime we can actually get a storm near the region. Seems like bad luck from a far, but when digging deeper, could be CC related. Probably is

Like I was saying, only a matter of time before the torch reached the northeast. No snow or cold to be seen throuhh early January. We risk a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat imo. Save this

The pattern regression is quite impressive. There's no more being on the fence about that, the warm air will be pushing through this region and will likely result in the last 10 days of december being a few degrees above normal. Despite the -NAO, there's no opportunity for snow because no snow storms can form due to the coast to coast torch across CONUS. This is one of the quickest pattern regressions I've ever seen. All the calls for renewed cold air after this "brief" warmup will likely be very inaccurate. It'll take some pacific jet extension to shake this up, or there's a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat coming right up

The projected cold weather between Christmas and new years is quickly slipping away. Hopefully we can get a pattern reset in early January akin to January 2024 because that shook things up quite a bit and prevented a January-March 2023 repeat with an eastern ridge. Something will have to give at some point, or that’s quite the headfake the models were throwing at us