Krs4Lfe

There’s just not enough cold air out west so the storm is crashing into the West Coast are mainly just rain. And until that ridge over the central US abates, snow, and cold will be absent for the entire country with the exception of the northeast that will remain chilly, but still no snow. Hopefully this pattern can shake up after the new year, but it looks like this pattern might stick around for a bit.

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat

I think the ridge over the central US is just too powerful and at some point the negative PNA will force storms into the West Coast, causing the ridge to roll over into the east. By then ,the ridge will be less powerful but still give us above normal temperatures and dryer conditions

Absolutely abysmal for any winter weather prospects. Only storminess will be heading to west coast because of the -PNA. I don’t think we should discount a January 2023 scenario. Cold and snow across conus for most of December 2022, and then late in the month we flipped to a torch and the east stayed like that for rest of winter. The west got record snowfall because of a deep -PNA

Literal blowtorch for nearly the entire CONUS for rest of forseeable future. Absolute abysmal prospects for any cold or snow anywhere in country for next few weeks. Doesn’t show any signs of reversal either. Don’t buy BAM’s hype

Really looks like the -NAO wants to develop. But ideally we would want it to develop a bit more to the west and force some blocking across northern Canada and Greenland. But I believe east -NAO are good flow slowing storms down on the Atlantic side. That being said, you need help from the pacific as well but as long as Alaska stays cold and stormy, I’m not sure we’ll get much help. Looks like northeast will be the only place colder than average for the rest of the month. Been a torch across most of CONUS this entire week and will likely prevail into the new year. Places down south that we’re running 10 degrees below normal will finish around average from this torch. Warm Christmas for many, doesn’t look like that pattern will Let up through early January.

It is a permanent issue. With a record warm west pacific year after year, that supercharges the pacific jet and/or southern stream and nothing is ever able to phase properly. Back in the 2010s, there would be bowling balls traversing CONUS and anywhere east of the Rockies would do well. Aside from 2021, that has been absent for most of the country. 2020, 2023, and 2024 were very good out west thouhh, with 2023 and 2024 having record snows for Rockies through upper Midwest and Great Lakes (even 2020 and 2019 to some extent.) But the northeast has been the loser time and again, and that’ll continue for as long as the west pacific remains very warm. Climate change will only exacerbate this. Welcome to the new normal.

-NAO are definitely more helpful than harmful. But we will need cooperation from the pacific. With all the energy roaring ashore the Pacific Northwest this week, it’ll be hard to get the pacific to slow down enough. And mind you, that’s only if the -NAO doesn’t link up with the SER. If it does, then it doesn’t matter how much pacific Help you get, it’ll be cutter city

Looks like winter 2023 to me. Troughs knocking into west coast, keeping them cold and stormy while the east US roasts

And unfortunately, those strong La Niña are often a coin toss between whether there is above average snowfall in New York City or well below average snowfall in New York City. Looks like the active weather pattern will continue across for northern US and put the south and the central US states will remain warm and dry. Usually it does not bode well for the mid Atlantic when there’s only an active northern stream and the southern stream is relatively muted. That doesn’t prevent coastal storms or the big bowling ball storms and most of us need to produce meaningful snow. For New England an active northern stream is conducive for snowfall, but for most of us absolutely is not. The long range models show no signs of this pattern, letting up. There will likely be no chances for snowfall for most of us in the foreseeable future going out through at least early to mid January.

Ski resorts will get a big one in the northwest. Blizzard warnings posted for the cascades which isn’t typical over there, even in the winter. Looks like a North Dakota and north Minnesota blizzard as well. Lots of high winds with this Incoming storm, entire intermountain west will see 60+, with mountain ranges seeing up to 90. Could be quite the power outage event over there over next 24-36 hours. Northwest coast has been pounded with rain past week and it’ll only be heavier this week as well.

December 2022 cold and January-March 2023 torch incoming ? Don’t laugh at that idea too much. La ninas usually put their eggs in the basket early. If that basket isn’t full early on, it likely never becomes full

At some point, the storminess along west US and west Canada would force that ridge to roll over. In the northeast, we will have mainly seasonal temps for rest of the month, but the torch over central US is very impressive. Reminiscent of Dec 2023 and Dec 2021. Just mild and warm for much of the nation. Both of the following januarys got pretty active after those months, but nothing really crazy over here in terms of snow and cold

Yeah that's the benchmark to watch. If we see a deeply negative PNA, then rest of winter would probably be similar to winter 2023 and 2024. Big time snow and cold in the west, and warm and mild over here

Once the block hooks up with the southeast Ridge, like it’s been doing more often than not over the past few years that will keep most of the east US warm. The southeast Ridge is almost always under modeled so I’m not sure it’s a good look.