Krs4Lfe

That tracks well with weeklies usually showing colder air and then correcting warmer as time gets closer.

Reached around 36 or so here in Bayside in northeast Queens. Looks to be a bit colder than that for Veterans day morning, should have widespread frost for most of us that day. Are we still slated for a big warmup after that? A few days ago, the models were looking like widespread 60s for the mid month warmup.

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this.

October 2021 had gusts to 50-60 mph in NYC, further out east. 100+ mph gusts in Cape Cod. That was wild. January 2022 blizzard had gusts to 35-40 (borderline blizzard in NYC), and gusts to 80s in east Mass. These events are pretty rare but they're pretty impactful when they happen.

If we can get this pattern to last into winter, it can funnel cold air on the backside of these storms which would allow cold air to be in place for the following storm (similar to the winter storm parade of Jan-Feb 2015 and Feb 2017.) one storm moves in after the other and it creates some blocking in Atlantic Canada and North Atlantic, funnels cold air down from Canada just in time for the next storm behind that. Been a while since we’ve seen that happen.

It's interesting because usually our strongest winds come during storms, this one will have almost no precip for our entire area. I remember Jan 2022, there was a gust to 60 in NYC from that storm that was the big blizzard in great lakes and appalachia but just one inch of snow to rain here and then strong winds and dry slot. Always cool to track high winds, but very few times we actually get high wind warning level winds (60+ mph). Early March 2018 was wild, 65 mph gusts over here. I can only think of a handful of 60+ (non severe and no tropical) events here in NYC over the past decade.

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

Normally I would say it's not permanent because weather patterns change quite often. But with the background state of the climate, I think climate change has made the WestPac so warm (which enhances the PacJet and causes west coast storminess and only transient troughs in the east at best), that there's no turning back. I think more of us will come along to this idea towards the end of the decade if we continue to see lack of snow in the area. In the past, decades with low snowfall amounts could be attributed to periods of drier weather or transient year-to-year weather pattern changes. But since late 2010s, we've been in a generally low amount of snowfall (save for a few winters) because it's just too warm to snow.

The only problem is these cold shots are always outdone by the warmups. Even without a ridge over the northeast it seems like our base state is slightly above normal. Feels like it takes a lot to get some colder air lately

Looks like we get a shot of warmer air after that, but the average temps are becoming cooler this time of year now so above normal can still be in 50s by the time mid month comes.

I feel like we can start off with the base state when making predictions for early winter. Until that PacJet slows down and we can get bigger troughs moving into CONUS, I think early winter would be quite muted across CONUS similar to the very inactive (in the winter weather department) December 2023 and December 2024 and some of those same problems trickled down through the rest of those winters.

Yeah we're starting out warm too, with temps in the 60s for most of this year. And a fast PacJet will prevent any arctic air from being pulled from the north. That's why the models have showed colder air and wintry weather towards middle of month but in due time, that will likely be diminished due to lack of cold air at the same time the northern stream energy comes through.

More evidence towards why there is a lack of cold air in Canada. Any early season wintry weather would require an ideal storm track to tap into a cold air source, of which there is none to be found.

I don’t believe that’s where we would want all the storminess. That’ll keep knocking into west Canada and west coast and the ridge will keep rolling over. Not a good look to funnel in cold arctic air into CONUS, which is necessary for our snow chances.

I wonder what the observations will be like from east Newfoundland tomorrow night, and Saturday, looks like it’ll have just transitioned to a post-tropical, hurricane force low pressure by then.