Krs4Lfe

Verbatim looks like a dry slot over NYC, maybe some light snow but poor antecedent conditions would probably result in white rain with no accumulation. Would likely be a few inches of snow through New England though

Northern queens, nyc

334,000 people across the northeast without power right now. It peaked this afternoon around 400,000. winds were quite impressive from this storm lots of reports of 60 mph winds across Queens and Brooklyn, with winds in between 60 to 70 mph across Nassau and Suffolk. Definitely needed a high wind warning for Long Island and probably one for Queens too. Definitely over performed, the national weather service forecast as of last night were winds only up to 45 mph gusts today.

I remember anytime you saw a colder than normal winter month in the 2010s, there would be snow accompanying it, and lots of it. Yet somehow since 2019, each colder than normal winter month has been a suppressive and/or cutter pattern everytime we can actually get a storm near the region. Seems like bad luck from a far, but when digging deeper, could be CC related. Probably is

Like I was saying, only a matter of time before the torch reached the northeast. No snow or cold to be seen throuhh early January. We risk a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat imo. Save this

The pattern regression is quite impressive. There's no more being on the fence about that, the warm air will be pushing through this region and will likely result in the last 10 days of december being a few degrees above normal. Despite the -NAO, there's no opportunity for snow because no snow storms can form due to the coast to coast torch across CONUS. This is one of the quickest pattern regressions I've ever seen. All the calls for renewed cold air after this "brief" warmup will likely be very inaccurate. It'll take some pacific jet extension to shake this up, or there's a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat coming right up

The projected cold weather between Christmas and new years is quickly slipping away. Hopefully we can get a pattern reset in early January akin to January 2024 because that shook things up quite a bit and prevented a January-March 2023 repeat with an eastern ridge. Something will have to give at some point, or that’s quite the headfake the models were throwing at us

It just seems like the central US ridge has strengthened as we get closer to the date. Around a week ago, we knew there would be warmth across much of conus. But this record breaking warmth for much of south and central US appears to have creeped up on us, and the duration of it seems to extend past Christmas now. I think we’ll need a jet extension (I know how much we hate those) to push storminess ashore and get some storms moving throuhh CONUS. I’d rather take my chances with stormy weather and hope there’s a well timed cold air injection than to have wall to wall torch with the only winter weather being north of the border. Doesn’t get much worse than this

With the PNA dipping even further negative, it’s likely that trough will persist, and there will be some ridge either over central US or east US. Even if northeast remains colder than average, with the rest of the country torching, there’s no snowstorm that can make its way over here. Unironically; the winter weather across CONUS this month could be the most significant of this entire winter.

This torch is very impressive and will result in many places in south where the anomalies have been ip to -8 so far to average near normal. The only place that will remain relatively average through end of the month is the northeast. Rest of US is in a big torch and the worst part is it doesn’t show signs of changing either. It will be impossible, mark my words, impossible, to get snow in this area with such warmth across CONUS. Any storm that comes into the west coast will be too warm like this past one, with snow confined to the far northern tier. And side from an occasional rain storm, most of the country will remain dry. Even reminiscent of Winter 2020 in that respect, where no one outside of the western 1/4th of country had much snow. And this season, even they don’t have any snow. This is also similar to mid December 2023 through early January 2024, where there was a coast to coast torch. One week into January 2024, that all changes though. However, this appears to be a very persistent pattern that will last into the forseeable future.

There’s just not enough cold air out west so the storm is crashing into the West Coast are mainly just rain. And until that ridge over the central US abates, snow, and cold will be absent for the entire country with the exception of the northeast that will remain chilly, but still no snow. Hopefully this pattern can shake up after the new year, but it looks like this pattern might stick around for a bit.

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat

I think the ridge over the central US is just too powerful and at some point the negative PNA will force storms into the West Coast, causing the ridge to roll over into the east. By then ,the ridge will be less powerful but still give us above normal temperatures and dryer conditions

Absolutely abysmal for any winter weather prospects. Only storminess will be heading to west coast because of the -PNA. I don’t think we should discount a January 2023 scenario. Cold and snow across conus for most of December 2022, and then late in the month we flipped to a torch and the east stayed like that for rest of winter. The west got record snowfall because of a deep -PNA

Literal blowtorch for nearly the entire CONUS for rest of forseeable future. Absolute abysmal prospects for any cold or snow anywhere in country for next few weeks. Doesn’t show any signs of reversal either. Don’t buy BAM’s hype