Krs4Lfe

I'm still not uncanceling my winter cancel post until we reach somewhat close to seasonal/average snow totals. I'll believe it when I see it

We would need some very good snow seasons in order to surpass the worst average snowfall in recorded NYC history. A very tall ask in a warming world

Yes but some of those years were just a product of it being too dry, as opposed to the warm boundary layer that we constantly deal with this decade. Also, three ratters in a row shows that the 2020s is more of a feast/famine sort of thing. 70s through 90s were overall below average but were consistently in the 15" range. Past 3 years in NYC are historically unsnowy, and back to back as well. I understand what you're saying, but it feels like there is something bigger at play here

Very delicate situation because GFS is amped but relying on a CCB to bring down the cold air. Otherwise, there would be some temperature issues like the Euro shows. Good to see it not backing down, but we need support from the other models as well.

Felt like March this week in NYC. Gross

NYC average is near 30” of snow. It would take several moderate snow events to make it to that level. We have not seen many moderate events in one season since 2015. 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021 made it above average with storms that had a double digit snowstorm. 2014 and 2015 made it above average with several moderate events (and some bigger ones too, but those were well above average seasons.) would take several moderate events to give NYC another 22” in order to reach average. So unless we buck the trend and get back to having several moderate events like in the great winters of 2014 and 2015, we will need a KU to reach average

And verbatim, the GFS model was on an island with an insanely amp solution, and that will not come to fruition. So we have to rely on a strengthening low pressure system that rides the western Atlantic Ridge boundary which can still bring mixed precipitation for us on the coast. Depending on where the boundary sets up after the potential event on the 15th to 16th will dictate the storm track of the next potential event. As we’ve seen since 2020 it is quite possible to have a near perfect benchmark track with the precipitation still falling as rain if the antecedent air mass is still too warm. Just keep in mind that this warm-up is going to last a little longer than expected and will not be finished like the 11th as most models were suggested in a week ago. It will now take into midweek in order for this thaw to finish.

Yes, and without a return to a KU type storm, it is nearly impossible for the majority of us to reach our seasonal snowfall average because many of us are too warm now for the minor/boundary temperature snow events. So we need to rely on a KU in order to reach our seasonal average. Those have been missing aside from 2021 and January 2022 because of the fast specific flow which has constantly pushed the northern stream out ahead of any southern stream vortex, which has not allowed for amplified solutions. As long as the Pacific jet remains as fast as it is, it will become rarer and rarer to have a KU type storm

Well now it certainly won’t happen. Fantasy

If the CPC is correct, that would be a good look for cold and would possibly translate over to wintry weather chances. Colder than normal temps at peak climo for second half of January and first week of February is ideal. But it’s also PNA related. A negative PNA will drive trough and cold into west which would lead to heights rising in the east. Most model guidance shows a return to a -PNA towards the end of their range. Whether that moved up in time remains yet to be seen

Been very warm this week. Around low 50s past few days, and looks like we continue with the 40s until mid-late next week. The models rushed the pattern change back to cold. Still warm and mild for the foreseeable future. Thursday's storm threat has essentially dissipated (not for the south though) but trough seems to be too positively tilted to get it up to the coast. The follow up next weekend is too warm on the Euro and is in fantasy range anyway. Nothing to get excited about aside from the cold air returning mid week next week

Until the warmth from the CC outpaces the cold and you end up with rain from a benchmark track. That is coming sooner than we think

Yeah made it to low 50s in NYC as well. We’re torching quite well this week. Seems like we’ll be back into colder weather by Monday, 1/12. This will definitively erase our colder than average start to the month

Too much energy flying around. With a low in the great lakes, nothing is coming up the coast.

The low pressure over the lakes will not allow this storm to come up north. It acts as a kicker and pushes the weak low pressure out to sea. Regardless of any model surface map depictions, as long as you see that Great Lakes low, you can pretty much write off a storm climbing up the coast. Western ridge is in good spot. This is one of the times where we would want a western Atlantic ridge to try to trap that storm in. Still plenty of time for changes but until that changes, this threat is non existent