Krs4Lfe

We will need the northern stream to relax, but that won’t happen because of fast pacific flow. That stems from a very warm northern Pacific Ocean, especially during the summertime, as we’ve seen from the marine heat waves. This is directly linked to climate change. Unless the northern stream slows down and can phase with the southern jet, we will not have coastal storm tracks, and we will not be able to nickel and dime our way to average snowfall. Late Jan through early February won’t work out either.

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue

NAM has almost Nothing for Sunday. Not a great sign considering how over amped the nam usually is

Until the record breaking northern stream of the pacific jet subsides; like in 2021 and Jan 2022, we will not reach average snowfall because there are no KU tracks. The more that the western pacific warms during the summer (record breaking marine heatwaves every year now), the lower chance we have of a KU. Might become the new normal, if it isn’t already

I say further east. I think that’s the only way this storm can trend. And I think Saturday’s snow negatively interferes with Sunday and pushes the boundary level further offshore. I could see it being moderate snow for east New England and Maine though

GFS has been proven wrong time and again. I bet Euro will be right in regards to the 24th as well, a big cutter during our warmup

No accumulation with those temps for Saturday unless higher elevation. Still has almost nothing for Sunday.

For Sunday: CMC has light snow UKMET has light snow AI models (GFS and Euro) have light-moderate snow ICON has light snow GFS has a snowstorm Euro has almost nothing For Saturday: all models have up to an inch for almost all of us. But since temps will be in low-mid 30s, there will be no accumulation

Finally. We went above average on 1/6 and have been like +10 since then. 8 days

Euro has a cutter for 22nd-25th period where other models show a SWFE.

Yeah, it's been incredibly warm and dry across West and Plains this "winter." The only wintry weather has been from North Dakota through Midwest to Northeast. We are all falling behind average snow. Very mild January thus far for entire US

Euro has nothing for Sunday. So here's where we are: GFS has big storm (won't happen) CMC has a light-moderate event UKMET has a light event ICON has a light-moderate event Either way, almost all models have light snow on Saturday. But the antecedent airmass is very warm so I'd only expect accumulation inland.

UK shows nothing. GFS shows a bomb. CMC has a light-moderate event. Icon has a light-moderate event. We'll see what Euro says

Looks nice and cold in the long range. CMC and GFS have something around the 22nd, looks like a SWFE which would favor New England of course.