Krs4Lfe

-NAO are definitely more helpful than harmful. But we will need cooperation from the pacific. With all the energy roaring ashore the Pacific Northwest this week, it’ll be hard to get the pacific to slow down enough. And mind you, that’s only if the -NAO doesn’t link up with the SER. If it does, then it doesn’t matter how much pacific Help you get, it’ll be cutter city

Looks like winter 2023 to me. Troughs knocking into west coast, keeping them cold and stormy while the east US roasts

And unfortunately, those strong La Niña are often a coin toss between whether there is above average snowfall in New York City or well below average snowfall in New York City. Looks like the active weather pattern will continue across for northern US and put the south and the central US states will remain warm and dry. Usually it does not bode well for the mid Atlantic when there’s only an active northern stream and the southern stream is relatively muted. That doesn’t prevent coastal storms or the big bowling ball storms and most of us need to produce meaningful snow. For New England an active northern stream is conducive for snowfall, but for most of us absolutely is not. The long range models show no signs of this pattern, letting up. There will likely be no chances for snowfall for most of us in the foreseeable future going out through at least early to mid January.

Ski resorts will get a big one in the northwest. Blizzard warnings posted for the cascades which isn’t typical over there, even in the winter. Looks like a North Dakota and north Minnesota blizzard as well. Lots of high winds with this Incoming storm, entire intermountain west will see 60+, with mountain ranges seeing up to 90. Could be quite the power outage event over there over next 24-36 hours. Northwest coast has been pounded with rain past week and it’ll only be heavier this week as well.

December 2022 cold and January-March 2023 torch incoming ? Don’t laugh at that idea too much. La ninas usually put their eggs in the basket early. If that basket isn’t full early on, it likely never becomes full

At some point, the storminess along west US and west Canada would force that ridge to roll over. In the northeast, we will have mainly seasonal temps for rest of the month, but the torch over central US is very impressive. Reminiscent of Dec 2023 and Dec 2021. Just mild and warm for much of the nation. Both of the following januarys got pretty active after those months, but nothing really crazy over here in terms of snow and cold

Yeah that's the benchmark to watch. If we see a deeply negative PNA, then rest of winter would probably be similar to winter 2023 and 2024. Big time snow and cold in the west, and warm and mild over here

Once the block hooks up with the southeast Ridge, like it’s been doing more often than not over the past few years that will keep most of the east US warm. The southeast Ridge is almost always under modeled so I’m not sure it’s a good look.

The scary thing to see is that for the foreseeable future, including into early January, most of the cold is bottled up in Canada and New England. While cold air can be brought down by a storm, CONUS will be literally almost entirely void of snow and cold through early January. This prime time for building snowpack up north and west which can held cool down some temperatures. At some point that ridge will have to roll over and we'll take that warmth on the chin. It would be preferable to have some storminess and cold to ring in the New Year

That has been my fear for most of this month. Fortunately, unlike December 2022 all of us actually saw snow this month and some of us saw significant snow. And this month has actually been much colder overall. However, I remember all the great model prognostications about what will be waiting for us in January only for January to come, and the rest of winter was a torch with only a few inches of snowfall. We should not discount the ability for nature to switch up a good pattern on a dime. What looks to be a very cold month this month could easily be the opposite next month.

That west coast trough crashing in after Christmas will lead to that massive and near record warm ridge over central US to eventually move towards east coast. Hopefully it’s transient, but Central and south US will really torch Christmas week

Yeah once that trough knocks into west coast, that ridge will roll over into the east coast. Looks like that would be closer to new years. Christmas could be record warm over parts of the plains. Yuck. Hopefully there’s a limit to the west coast troughs because those will keep knocking the ridge over and we can’t get a coastal storm with a pattern like that.

Well realistically speaking what are the odds that December is as cold as it is and January/February don’t torch. It’s hard to get a few colder than average months in a row these days

Looks like mild and dry throuhh end of the year. Large ridge over most of CONUS too. Doesn’t look like snow for anyone through end of the month

Oh ok so the amount they released yesterday after the storm was 2.9” but it appears there might have been a 4.4” measurement ?