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JFLETCHER

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Everything posted by JFLETCHER

  1. JFLETCHER
    18z UKMET stays south but only goes out to 66.
  2. JFLETCHER
    That is true, I think for Wakefield purposes, Louisa, Caroline and Fluvanna counties will probably go under WSW I would think at least...
  3. JFLETCHER
    I will take 12-14 up here in Ladysmith ANY DAY
  4. JFLETCHER
    It is interesting. The 12z NAM came south. The 12z ICON came further south. Could be a trend. Let's see what the more popular models do today with midday runs.
  5. JFLETCHER
    Miller B systems rarely if ever produce good snows at our latitude. Sure we can mix quite a bit, but it all depends on the transfer. If the transfer is far enough south, VA can cash in, but with it looking to move further north, we will quickly change from snow to ice and in a lot of cases, plain rain. we are just too far south.
  6. JFLETCHER
    I agree completely. It is the block and confluence that has us up in arms.
  7. JFLETCHER
    I mean I think we know the drill around these parts. Everyone will start as snow. Then slowly transition over to ice-first down around RIC then up 95 through Ashland then up to Caroline. Louisa/Fluvanna/Caroline are the last spots to change over to sleet/freezing rain. I do think that we all start out with a decent thump then change over. Miller B's are notorious for that around here. The models will drive you crazy no doubt.
  8. JFLETCHER
    Even us in North-Central VA may get a lot of ice up this way.
  9. JFLETCHER
    It's crazy how for 4 straight runs the euro shows same solution basically and other models trend to you. Now 18z does this. We turn over to rain even up here in Caroline.
  10. JFLETCHER
    Exactly. The models are coming around for now at least to adjusting to the block. It can't run into it, it has to slide underneath. This is a very good solution for most of all VA.
  11. JFLETCHER
    Thus far, anyone in North-Central Virginia is in the game for this one so far-but it is early.
  12. JFLETCHER
    So basically North-Central VA from Louisa over to Caroline county over to Ashland area.
  13. JFLETCHER
    There are some good hits in there. I still think we truly won't know a whole lot until Thursday or Friday about the ultimate outcome. I do see in Wakefield discussion they are mentioning the threat of snow at least Sunday into Monday. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
  14. JFLETCHER
    Would love a classic Miller A with cold air to stick around.
  15. JFLETCHER
    12z GFS continues the western track of the low to the mountains, pretty much doing the loop it has been doing for a while then moving up into the Appalachians.
  16. JFLETCHER
    I use it frequently and the app is my favorite. But sometimes you are correct, it is a little off on how much rain fell.
  17. JFLETCHER
    I use raindrop app, it's good.
  18. JFLETCHER
    One would surmise that SE VA up to the Northern Neck of VA would see the most (2-4 inches). Along and just west of 95 should get a good soaking (1-2). Once you get into the western piedmont-maybe up to an inch or so. It will be interesting to watch how this all plays out tomorrow.
  19. JFLETCHER
    Not a snowflake up here in Caroline. No worries though. It just amazes me how horrendous the models are these days even leading right up to an event. Clipper tracks from the 90s dont happen anymore. They cut right through the heart of south-central VA and gives us all rain. They used to track across NC and give us a nice swath of snow. Just a lot of busts on above climo snowfall predictions but it looked promising at one time.
  20. JFLETCHER
    Caroline may not get much now from the way it looks.
  21. JFLETCHER
    That is where I live.
  22. JFLETCHER
    Agree. Best snow may be north of Fredericksburg from the way it looks now. I'm expecting maybe an inch up here in western Caroline. Models trending more north. Mountains may eat up some of our qpf too.
  23. JFLETCHER
    I think that is the one to watch. Not taking it verbatim. But for a while, Presidents Day weekend through the end of February has been the timeframe for potential storms. I like the look for now, just continue to monitor.
  24. JFLETCHER
    Today the LR looks good. Obviously, we don't want to take into account actual model runs, but primarily ensembles. Gotta say from Presidents Day through early March, I think we can score. What I would love is a good ole fashioned Miller A to come right up the coast and get us all in the action. Please no Miller Bs-they screw us 9 out of 10 times at our latitude unless the transfer happens in TN. I'm excited about this timeframe, just have to be patient.
  25. JFLETCHER
    10-4 on that Sir.
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