JFLETCHER

12z GFS continues the western track of the low to the mountains, pretty much doing the loop it has been doing for a while then moving up into the Appalachians.

I use it frequently and the app is my favorite. But sometimes you are correct, it is a little off on how much rain fell.

I use raindrop app, it's good.

One would surmise that SE VA up to the Northern Neck of VA would see the most (2-4 inches). Along and just west of 95 should get a good soaking (1-2). Once you get into the western piedmont-maybe up to an inch or so. It will be interesting to watch how this all plays out tomorrow.

Not a snowflake up here in Caroline. No worries though. It just amazes me how horrendous the models are these days even leading right up to an event. Clipper tracks from the 90s dont happen anymore. They cut right through the heart of south-central VA and gives us all rain. They used to track across NC and give us a nice swath of snow. Just a lot of busts on above climo snowfall predictions but it looked promising at one time.

Caroline may not get much now from the way it looks.

That is where I live.

Agree. Best snow may be north of Fredericksburg from the way it looks now. I'm expecting maybe an inch up here in western Caroline. Models trending more north. Mountains may eat up some of our qpf too.

I think that is the one to watch. Not taking it verbatim. But for a while, Presidents Day weekend through the end of February has been the timeframe for potential storms. I like the look for now, just continue to monitor.

Today the LR looks good. Obviously, we don't want to take into account actual model runs, but primarily ensembles. Gotta say from Presidents Day through early March, I think we can score. What I would love is a good ole fashioned Miller A to come right up the coast and get us all in the action. Please no Miller Bs-they screw us 9 out of 10 times at our latitude unless the transfer happens in TN. I'm excited about this timeframe, just have to be patient.

10-4 on that Sir.

I wasn't trying to be rude or anything. I truly appreciate all of the posts you are making. I was just referring to the models in general and how poor they have been as of late. Do I think there is a good pattern coming, I do. I just hope that we can all feast down here in Central Virginia and get a good one to go our way.

Good call. I'm very skeptical of this "epic" pattern. You can have the setup all you want but if the STJ isn't producing, you may get a minor event here or there. But the models keep teasing folks and some keep buying in.

Maybe western caroline can get a half-inch to an inch up here.

I'm in Ladysmith 18 miles from you. Hopefully we can cash in.