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09-10 analogy

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  1. 09-10 analogy
    "the vertical shear is off the charts." That's the summertime equivalent of "robust frontogenesis will lead to rates of 2-3"/hour."
  2. 09-10 analogy
    Is that hodo the "wavy" kind that was mentioned in an SPC/LWX AFD (I forget which office) a day or so ago?
  3. 09-10 analogy
    How much of that hype do you think can be attributed to last week's storms?
  4. 09-10 analogy
    Believe me, when I saw that tree that had pancaked a (fortunately, parked) car from last week's downburst in DC ... well, I've seen tons of pictures of that kind of thing, but to see it first-hand, it brings home how dangerous 70-80+ straight-line winds can be in areas with lots of big old elm and oak trees. Bit of a quandary, because I want to park under a big-canopy tree to protect my car somewhat from hail, but that same tree might demolish my car. (No garage at my house, most people on my street have one at the back of their property, but I'm right next to a corner lot and the way our neighborhood is laid out, corner lots and those adjacent don't have garages that back onto alleys.)
  5. 09-10 analogy
    Then there's 1944, when a couple of F4 tornadoes hopped over ridges, evidently, like I'd hop into a pool.
  6. 09-10 analogy
    Who’s up for a wind-driven PDS watch today?
  7. 09-10 analogy
    I always like second rounds. Somewhat lost in the excitement, maybe, but we haven’t had too many days this summer with HIs over 100, as mentioned in the AFD.
  8. 09-10 analogy
    That always seems to be a threat. Still high clouds here; I’m beginning to temper expectations for my back yard. Still think it’ll be a big day for MA overall
  9. 09-10 analogy
    Last weekend’s two wind events aside, it’s been a pretty boring stretch of weather around here; we’ve earned some excitement.
  10. 09-10 analogy
    This is a mt. fort Reno day for sure. May need to take a folding chair there.
  11. 09-10 analogy
    Now let's put the beatdown on Houston and make a statement to the rest of the AL: "We're your daddy now." We're missing Mr. Kate Upton this series, evidently. But that's OK. We pushed him around in 2014 and he's 9 years older now. It's been a long time since I could feel cocky about being an Orioles fan. Should probably stop, though. Bad karma. That said, 30-20 the rest of the way gets us to 100 winds. That's a .600 winning percentage. Last time the O's won 100? (Trivia, see answer below.) They've played .622 so far. There's a lot of mediocrity in their schedule to come: Cardinals, Diamondbacks (who were good earlier), Cleveland. Some clunkers like the White Sox and A's; I hope the O's don't "play down" to their level. Four with TB in mid-September are going to be tough games and I think may decide the division title and home field advantage in the playoffs. Padres, Mariners, and (7) Boston could be tough as well. Trivia answer: 1980.
  12. 09-10 analogy
    I've been wanting to find a resource that could tell me "when was the last time XXX had a ZZZ," so thanks! Now I just have to figure out how to negotiate my way through all that data. I knew the IEM page has archived AFDs and many other NWS products, but I didn't know it could drill down even deeper.
  13. 09-10 analogy
    I think they expanded the 5% TOR risk, and expanded the wind risks eastward as well.
  14. 09-10 analogy
    If I'm reading Sterling's discussion correctly, if the storms hold off until later Monday afternoon/evening, the LLJ would give a boost to mesocyclone development. Is this akin to what I often read in discussions of Dixie tornado threats, which often mention a nighttime tornado threat being heightened by a nocturnal LLJ? And, no, I'm not comparing tomorrow to Dixie outbreaks. There is, however, this August event: https://michigan-weather-center.org/the-tornado-and-the-burning-of-washington-august-25-1814#:~:text=The tornado tore through the,of homes and scattered about.
  15. 09-10 analogy
    That's beautiful. Always wanted to hike in the Canadian Rockies.
  16. 09-10 analogy
    Saw this stat on a Tweetstream called "Orioles Fans Say": "Stat of the Day - The Baltimore Orioles have played 42 straight games versus teams currently over .500. The Orioles have a combined record of 25-17 (.595) over that stretch, which would equate to a 96 win pace over 162 games." That's really amazing. This team is the best O's squad since 1997, I believe. Better than 2014. And now they're beginning to crush the opposition, so those "But their Pythagorean!" mopesters will hopefully be silenced soon.
  17. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah, it's a conundrum. It's a rush seeing the actual storm but after walking around Woodley Park today, I was thankful I didn't have to deal with a 100 year old oak tree wrenched from the ground and lying in my yard, much less on my house.
  18. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah, I saw a good bit of that video damage as I was walking around. Lotta movers and shakers live in these neighborhoods so it's gonna get covered a lot.
  19. 09-10 analogy
    Well I did about an 8-mile hike from my house down to where the damage was. I saw about 10 or 11 huge trees down -- curiously, none of them onto houses, but a couple of cars were crushed. (Note to self: do not be in a car with trees around and 70-80 mph winds.) It was worse in Woodley Park than Cleveland Park; I was going to go over to Glover Park and maybe toward Palisades, but even though it's a nice day, it's still a hot July sun and I'd had about enough, so came home. The damage was, where I walked about, hit and miss; I saw one house which looked like it had lost shingles off the roof. Lots of people gawking and doing what I was doing. Talked to a police officer in front of the Zoo (which was, unsurprisingly, closed); fortunately, no animals were hurt, but there were tons of trees down, he said. He also said there were a lot of trees down on the Mall; I didn't think the swath of damage was that far south.
  20. 09-10 analogy
    Think the visibility at the beach is better for lightning displays, but wind, because there’s so much “stuff” (e.g., branches) around, may be better in more urban areas? I guess I’m weird but seeing that cardboard box blown end over end down Conn Ave was cool as hell.
  21. 09-10 analogy
    Quite the one-two punch. Yesterday BaLtimore and north, today Dc
  22. 09-10 analogy
    My wife and daughter down the shore now near there and just texted me a vid with a nasty looking storm looming
  23. 09-10 analogy
    Didn’t see anything quite that dramatic around friendship heights/tenleytown; seems worst of the downburst (?) was just to the south.
  24. 09-10 analogy
    Yeah it was a rain near-whiteout at times. Very cool. I reserve the right to change that judgement if the power stays out for a few days, though.
  25. 09-10 analogy
    A mess up here. Power out all over. Numerous large branches down but driving back from the gym, where I rode the storm out, I didn’t see any trees down. Best storm in a while and best this year going away. Very strong winds but like I said earlier it wasn’t like some storms when you have the burst at the beginning and then it calms down. The winds were gusting over 50 for a good 20 minutes or so. Maybe 60, even 65; I was looking at it on Connecticut Ave and saw cardboard boxes, at times elevated, being blown Down the street. I read sterling tweeted potential for 80; I don’t think it was that strong in my immediate area. Eta: video in the other thread from Woolley park similar to what I saw in Van Ness which makes sense because the neighborhoods are right next to each other
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