09-10 analogy

The little boomlet that sliced the District caved my sidestreet and all the sidewalks residents had so dutifully shoveled. The bigger streamer looks to brush just to my north. Unofficially about 4.5" but waiting on confirmation from other reports nearby.

Squall boomlet! Complete with what today has lacked so far: a bit of wind.

I’m in the green on radar! Now I know why green has always been my favorite color

Just went out to shovel and “measure” a few times. Anywhere between 2.9” to 3.3”. Normally wouldn’t shovel so quickly but my wife still recovering from a bad sprained ankle and my daughter has lower back caused doubtlessly by stress about going back to uni and dealing with her roomie, which has, in the immortal words of Hirohito announcing japan’s capitulation after the a-bombs, “has not necessarily worked out to (her) advantage.” driving her back up tomorrow. Ought to be a wintery trip! and the rates here now are as good as they’ve been since I woke up.

Light snow starting up again in t-town.

I don't think I've ever seen a darker sky in winter than during that March 1999 event. One of the coolest mid-tier storms ever. It just ripped like hell for several hours. I don't remember it being that well forecast, but I'm not sure on that one.

Bit envious of all those who got down to single digits, but that's price I pay for living inside the Beltway. Nearest WB station to me got down to 13. (I really need to get my own someday.) Went out for a quick morning stroll, however, and my body prolly thinks any such difference is academic. Really is invigorating though.

Oh yeah. In the 20+ years I've lived here, I must have seen dozens of storms come in. Popped up there right before the Derecho and will never forget the light show, not to mention the sprint down the hill and back to my car to get home before it hit. Spent a couple hours up there during Isabel, bracing myself against the wind and getting drenched. Back in my running days, I'd cross train by sprinting up the hill. And when my pups were alive, on a summer night, I'd sometimes go up there with them and hang out, and watch the planes approach into National and listen to the summer sounds. Doggies loved it too. And of course, put in serious time all around the park during the early to mid 2010s legendary snowstorms, not only walking around during the storms, but going sledding with my daughter. Got lucky that when she was growing up, we had our share of events: 2009-10, the winters of 2014 and 2015, the blizzard of 2016, the Valentine Day's sleet storm of 2007 (when we almost slid into Fessenden, we were going so fast). We'd watch fireworks from up there, I'd get a good book on a hot summer day and go up there and read while baking in the DC furnace. The summer concerts were fun, I occasional watch a bit of the Jackson-Lee team on the baseball field if I'm walking that way. That park is just wonderful, regardless of the season. (Moved this to banter from the obs thread, since my response was too long, but I wanted to post it. Prolly a better way of doing it.)

That lines up nicely with what I measured off the back deck. Between 4.25" and 5".

Maybe Georgetown, Guyana.

Just a few random stabbings of my ruler into the back deck, yielded measurements in the 2.75 to 3.25 range. Not exactly the gold standard of snow measurements. I doubt it would pass muster in peer review -- if we've reached the point where snow measurements by weenies and "weather hobbyists" have to be subject to the kind of scientific rigor used by the Manhattan Project to make sure the Gadget at Alamogordo didn't set the atmosphere on fire -- but my philosophy has always been is to shade (?!#4a) toward the higher measures based on an admixture of snow psychosis, snow goggle-eyes, and snow elitism that is a function of location and, secondarily, elevation. None of these three -- let's call them "pillars" of biases that may affect snow measurements -- can be quantified, but all of which should be considered in any kind of qualitative study (whether peer-reviewed or not) of the psychology of individuals making reports of snow accumulations. Said study would be multi-dimensional, bringing together the disparate fields of psychology and meteorology, and probably a few dozen others, depending on author's ambition and vision. Maybe. Is this a topic screaming for some ambitious student's grad or PhD. thesis treatment? Or is it doomed to the intellectual ghetto of X- (nee-Twitter) thread-unroll posting?

Yeah it's coming down with semi-aplomb in up NW.

I'm surprised someone isn't saying, "Why are we wasting a nighttime event when it's this cold, and the sun angle isn't working against us? We should be saving these nighttime snows for March."

Welcome back, snowcover. Where the heck you been?

Some flurries. If there was a bit of snow on the ground, I'd call it wintery looking now. a Winds are pretty good.

Bring on severe season. Wait ... that's usually a disappointment too. But at least it's generally not a five-day-in-advance heartbreak. It's just we don't clear out in the morning, or the outflow from the storms coming off the Blue Ridge screw everything up downstream, or something that's more or less real time. But it's not like noting on a Saturday, "hey, the GFS shows wedges on the Mall on Wednesday, but the Euro ... etc., etc. ..." So bring on fog season.

As an aficionado of AFDs, I suggest this one out of the Gaylord office in Michigan; it's one of the more animated discussions I've read in a while: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=APX&issuedby=APX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Winds and rain have certainly picked up. Our "eye" has passed.

It's starting up again.

Some sun, some sun, my kingdom for some destabilizing sun.

Seems like a little lull in at least the rain coming up, but it's action-packed back to the SW along and south of I-64. EDIT: Speaking of action-packed, quite a little severe outbreak going on in the Carolinas now. More or less unbroken line of STWs straight down from east of Charlottesville, down to Hilton Head and out to sea, then regaining land in Florida and stretching to Tampa Bay. This is really a rather magnificent weather system.

For some reason that MDs citation of the "Sargasso Sea," with its reputation as being a mystically inescapable area, seems proper beyond the geospatial accuracy, for a day like today, with conditions right out of Shutter Island.

NW DC current has six hazardous weather statements: Coastal Flood Warning (not really applicable at 380' but what the hell, it's the same jurisdiction as Hains Point); Hazardous Weather Outlook; Special Weather Statement; High Wind Warning; Flood Watch; Coastal Flood Advisory (again, 380' and Hains Point). This SWS is kinda cool, though: ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON REGION TODAY BETWEEN 500 PM AND 1000 PM EST... Weather conditions will deteriorate as a strong frontal system approaches this afternoon, then passes through the greater Baltimore/Washington region this evening. This will result high winds capable of downing trees and powerlines, tidal flooding, and the potential for flooding of small streams and creeks. This will create hazardous travel conditions late this afternoon through late evening across the region. Light-to-moderate rain will continue early this afternoon, then increase in intensity late this afternoon, with a several hour period of heavy, intense rainfall expected between 6 PM and 10 PM. This heavy rainfall, coupled with already saturated soils from recent rainfall, will cause flooding of small streams and creeks. Do not attempt to drive across flooded roadways; additionally, flooding at night increases the risk for motorists not being able to quickly identify the water hazards due to decreased visibilities by the heavy rain and darkness. Easterly winds will increase in intensity as well this afternoon across the region, with gusts to 50 MPH expected late this afternoon through mid-evening. Locations closer to the Chesapeake Bay will see higher wind gusts of 60-70 MPH. Strong winds will increase the risk of falling trees and downed powerlines. Again, the risk of poor outcomes resulting from high winds is increased during nighttime. Winds will decrease after midnight tonight. Finally, areas along the tidal Potomac River and western shore of the Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point VA should prepare for moderate-to-major tidal flooding. The cities of Baltimore, Annapolis MD, and Alexandria VA are most prone to tidal flooding, and the coupling of heavy rainfall and strong onshore winds of 50-60 MPH in these locations will work together to create moderate-to-major tidal impacts. Repeating, a strong frontal system will approach and pass through the greater Baltimore/Washington region late this afternoon into this evening. Small stream and creek flooding, tidal flooding, and high winds will create hazardous conditions late this afternoon through late evening. Motorists should expect hazardous conditions in their evening commute, and should avoid unnecessary travel. Prepare for the potential for power outages.

Yep, plenty of ponding action. And now the wires are beginning to sway in the wind. Worst case scenario on the way: lose power while the basement gets standing water, so that I can't use the sump pump or water vac to try and stay ahead of it. Well, not worst case; that would be if I slip in my dark basement and hit my head and off myself. At least then I wouldn't have to have an extended date with my water vac.

Definitely getting "stormier" now. Took a (wet) walk outside down to where the TV tower along Wisconsin Ave. is, and I can hear the dull roar of the wind as it passes through the top (around 700 feet up). But not really that windy at the surface (yet?). Always a good way to guesstimate what kind of wind energy is above ground level, I suppose.