09-10 analogy

Decent electrical activity in up nw. Loudest thunder of the year. EDIT: Hell, this is the best storm of the year IMBY. Wind gusts guestimated at over 45, and very cloudbursty for a couple of moments. and it's an official SVR warn: evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 542 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-510-610-152200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-240715T2200Z/ District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD-Arlington VA- City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA-City of Alexandria VA- 542 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES...ARLINGTON...AND NORTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH AND THE NORTHERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA... At 542 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Friendship Village, or over Bethesda, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Rockville, Bethesda, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Falls Church, Bladensburg, Pimmit Hills, National Harbor, Mclean, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten, Rosslyn, Crystal City, University of Maryland, Nationals Park, and Howard University. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

potent little drenching in upper nw but no T&L so far

935 mb? On July 2? Jamaica is looking at a body blow tomorrow.

Speaking of highways or ... er, streets, WATCH it on Connecticut Avenue around the intersection with Davenport, for those who drive that stretch. Nasty speed camera in there that takes no prisoners (two tickets at 100 a pop for doing 36-37 in a 25 zone). And the "radar enforced" sign is hard to see going southbound on Connecticut. But, hey, gotta juice that revenue stream.

I was kinda thinking along this line. I think ... and this is, as so many of my postings are, totally unscientific ... that I internalized the heat hype so that when it arrived, I was prepared psychologically, and so it hasn't felt that bad either yesterday or today. Perception is a powerful thing. I'm actually sitting here with the window open and a/c off because I need to air out this room. Of course, I'm not carrying bales of hay in the open or wielding a jackhammer or even doing much more than walking to the store. My take on the heat would doubtlessly be a bit different in those cases, and I would be duly bitching about how eneverated I felt. EDIT: Or maybe I'm just around the bend and need to be committed somewhere. I shouldn't be so phlegmatic about a 110 HI.

Yeah, extended the southward extent of SLGT, also introduced a dollop of ENH over NE. Also the afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned the possibility of several rounds of storms.

So an average win of 12.2-3 .... not bad! Wild game last night. O's almost pulled off a comeback for the ages.

Nice taking the series from the Phillies (and before that, Braves) before heading to NYC to slay the beast. Yeah, yeah, Judge and Soto but no one else in the Yanks lineup OPSs over .800. Meanwhile five Orioles (if you count O'Hearn) are, and Montcastle is close at .784. And the O's are 8-2 over the last 10 games, while the Yankees are 5-5. And the Yankees' catcher can't throw at all; Red Sox stole a bunch of bases against him yesterday. So turn Henderson, Jordan, Mateo, and Ced (if he can get on base) loose. Losing Bradish and Coulombe hurts, but that's why there's you can trade up until July 31. I'd think about moving Kjerstad, who's crushing it at Norfolk but has nowhere to play in the big time as of now. K can't play center if Mullins can't get untracked offensively (and frankly, with the rest of this offense, I think the O's can afford to carry him for his glove).

Yeah it looks like we're gonna pay for this nice stretch next week.

Read that the 0-3 km SRH from a BWI sounding was around 450 m2/s2 on Wednesday as the sup passed by. Not bad for around here.

Almost looks like a multi-vortex ... hard to tell ...

Nice V-notch on the cell just north of the M/D line, crossing I-81.

Another Garrett County special ..?

Something I’m really glad we did, in retrospect. Will never forget It, just like January 2016 or June 2012.

Yeah, it seems pretty rare for an AFD to start honking about a severe threat almost a week away. Hope things evolve so that the threat is a little later in the day on Monday; that is, if it comes to fruition at all.

Time for some payback against the Skankees for all the years they owned the O's. Let's forget about the weekend with the A's, and sweep these DBs.

Yeah it is amazing, the number and (apparent) intensity of tornadoes along that Ardmore-Sulphur-Holdenville corridor.

Pocket of 9 C/km LLLR SW of DC according to latest SPC mesoanalysis.

You can keep it.

First thunder. Would prefer no hail. If I had a garage I wouldn't care, but ...

Yeah that’s what’s nice about our spot too: a lot of open sky

On eastern shore of Oneida lake northeast of Syracuse. Sun through high clouds nowbut there’s mid level junk all around. Real nice location in a state park though with facilities and good visibility (other than clouds). We got here at around 8 with about 10 cars in tile lot. Hiked around the park a bit and came back to the lot more or less full. I’d say lot has room for 200 (WAG) cars

We're still going. Compelled by my daughter, who now is expecting a visit. (Nice to still be wanted.) If the clouds get in the way, so be it. We're still going to the state park and will have fun hiking around and having a picnic, even if the eclipse doesn't pan out to perfection. The room we've got in Utica is reasonably priced. I'm just once again worried about the traffic but if a little bit of cloud keeps some margin of viewers off the road, that might be a tradeoff I'm willing to make. We're also looking at an alternate state park that backs onto the Tug. I've always wanted to go there, but of course during a lake event. Frankly, the worst part will be what it usually is: the drive up 81. Trucks to the galore, half the time a lane is closed for repaving or other construction, causing backups that would make 95 over the Occoquan proud. The drive through the mountains was fun the first couple times, but that novelty has definitely worn itself down to a nub.

There's a whole menu of model options regarding cloud cover that this forum usually ignores or, in my case, didn't even knew existed. We decided to decamp NE of Syracuse in a state park near Oneida Lake. Might try to go more NW if the traffic isn't bad to get an extra minute of Totality. Of course I've got to be in on a meeting Tuesday that I really can't do in a car. I tried dropping the magic words "eclipse" and "daughter" to get out of it, but no go.

Better than beer bottles.