09-10 analogy

Still mostly -RN in up nw, a flake mixing in but rarely.

Grass and cars covering up in upper NW but hearing pinging now and then. The old SN/IP go-between.

A car top or two semi-caved in upper NW. A little paste on a leaf here and there. The quintessential "trace."

If I see one flake stick to a grassy surface for more than 30 seconds, I'll consider this an overperformer. Not that I'll be looking that conscientiously.

I'd love to see a replay of that. Even though DC was on the warm side ... but from what I've read, there really wasn't a consistently "warm" side because of the low's crazy movement. Snowed in Pittsburgh while it rained in Buffalo. Right up there with 1993 as an extreme event. Some legit cold out there this morning.

Yep flurs in upper nw as well. Pretty sky as well

Nice fall day for the parade on Saturday.

FWIW, SPC meso analysis has supercell composite of 8 -12.

Streets have caved in that they're actually wet this early morning.

That's probably the January 2005 snowstorm. One of the great screwjobs in DC history. Probably a Miller B deal: NYC and Philly both got a foot, NE/Boston got a historic monster, Baltimore may have eked out a few inches. DC got squat; textbook middle finger event around here. I'll take the 99-00 analog. Great last part of January.. Just looked up the 2004-5 season. DCA got 12.5". There have been much worse. But that doesn't begin to alleviate the pain of the kind of shafting Jan 21-22 2005 delivered. 99-00 delivered 15.4, not much more than 04-05, but it included the Big Honking Surprise of Jan 25, which to me boosts my estimation of that winter higher than the seasonal total would warrant.

All just prologue to the conga line of tropical system the 0z Euro sends our way starting late next week. Of course no real effects in the DMV, but at least we’ll get cloud cover to knock temps down. Around here, you takes what you can gets.

So, 16 days of Dorian. Sure seems like it was a lot longer.

Effects on the Lowcountry offshore islands (e.g., HHI, Fripp, Harbour, Hunting) seem quite minimal at this time. One person on the Fripp Next Door page said the King Tides from a few days ago were worse than anything from Dorian. There's still a high tide later today, but evidently the effects at least from Beaufort on south were less than Matthew. EDITED to say "less than Matthew" instead of "nothing like Matthew." I'm basing this on only a few observational data points from social media, so I shouldn't be so assertive. That said, it seems like Dorian was not as bad.

I gotta say, the journalistic philosophy of Bahamas Press, at least from its social media content, seems to have a distinctly yellow tint to it. Most assuredly places like Abaco have been brutalized and there are fatalities, maybe a good number. And maybe the Bahamanian authorities' response is not ideal. Not surprising there, as this is a nationwide catastrophe that no amount of planning, I would think, could prepare for. But BP with its ALL CAPS AND EXCLAMATION POINTS! rhetorical style reminds me of some of the less savory approaches used by other media outlets whose claims of objectivity sour with their ready recourse to unsupported accusations of deliberate negligence. Of course the press should hold the authorities accountable. But darkly assuming the PM is deliberately lying about fatalities, when parts of the Bahamas are still getting pounded by Dorain, may or may not be irresponsible, but certainly isn't helpful. At least now. And if they do take that tack, which is certainly within the right of a free media (which I assume the Bahamas has), then maybe the organization shouldn't present itself as strictly reportage, which to me it seems to do. I know this is OT even for the banter board, so if it's deleted, that's OK. As someone in media, I just wanted to get my impression out there, see how others are reacting to BP.

Main thread, as, lamentably, so often, being soured by pompous and ignorant dorks who cite their decades long experience at "tracking" as irrevocable proof that a slow moving Dorian will upwell enough water in its approach to Florida so that it will hit as at best a weak CAT 1. Never mind the best in the world in Miami, with the best tools available, now forecasting a CAT 4 landfall. But, you see, they don't have the snowflake special insight of grizzled veterans of "tracking" using NOAA weather radio and lat/long map plots back in 1979 when they were analyzing David with their state-of-the-art dart throwing. Put the blindfold on, pin the tail on Dorian, like they did with David. And Frederic. And etc. Not to knock David. It was a hell of a storm for the mid-Atlantic. One of my earliest weather memories, growing up in northern DE.

That storm has weakened but is it ever presenting here an ominous look to the W/NW. Plus CG strokes out in front, prolly in Great Falls area now. This would be the third one of the day, although the second one was not much. Still, a bit reminiscent of June 4, 2008; one of my favorite severe days ever. Today doesn't compare to that, but the multiple rounds after the big one that comes through in the mid/late afternoon does reflect the pattern. Back then of course we had five or six rounds, it seemed; it didn't calm down until after midnight, IIRC.

Honestly that was about as impressive as anything I can remember since the derecho. Dime-sized hail, winds well into the 50s (times like this I wish I had an anemometer, even a cheap handheld one), lots of CG, torrential rain. Had it all. Another one incoming. While driving I saw a couple of streets cordoned off (I'm assuming downed trees) and lots of small branches and foliage littering the streets. I have power but a good bit of the Tenleytown area doesn't. Second significant hailer (well, for around here) this season. At least dime size won't dent up the car like the larger hail from June 2 did. Nice to be in the sweet spot for a change. My subjective take is that upper NW has been kinda fringed a lot this season. But we were evidently bullseyed today.

That’s some June 2012-ish rhetoric there

I was just on the southeastern side of that cell. Even with the limited visibility from my house (didn't get a chance to go up to Ft. Reno) I could see numerous ground strokes. Can only imagine what it must have been like to be directly under it! Hopefully upper NW bullseyes today. MBY has been fringed a lot this summer, except for the g/d hailstorm several weeks back that caused $1500 or so damage to my car (at least that was the estimate, you have to look pretty hard to see more than one or two dents.

Not a bad little storm. Certainly halting the HI train in its tracks. Some pretty close in CG with it.

eh, not quite was I was hoping for ...

Actually have a good feeling on this second round T&L wise. I think we could be in for a show.

The T&L with that first round was some of the best this season. Wasn't much of it, but it meant business when it unloaded. Wind didn't exactly bowl me over though. With all the storms in my immediate vicinity this season, only one that I can recall has had decent wind. Cloudbursts, hail, possible wall cloud, yeah, but I don't think IMBY I've approached severe wind criteria (58+) all season. Notoriously difficult to judge, of course, (well, for me at least, even with my Skywarn training) without a weather station/anemometer. Western sky was looking ominous there for a while with round 2, but nasomuch now. Still hearing distant thunder. I always love daytime storms where you hear the thunder half an hour before the event actually hits, the thunder getting louder as the storm approaches. Subjectively speaking, that kind of evolution doesn't seem to happen as much as it did when I was younger, but I'm sure that's just observer/misty memory bias. And I'm a sucker for days with 3 or more rounds of storms. I'd almost rather have three rounds of decent storms instead of one big one (unless we're talking derecho or June 2008 -- which had multiple rounds anyway -- or July 2010).

My street was a mini-river from curb to curb in upper NW. That's only happened a couple of times since I've lived here. One of last August's cloudbursts, June 2006, maybe one or two others I've forgot. And I'm nowhere near any stream or creek. Amazingly, only a little bit of water in the basement. When I went down there earlier, I was expecting to spend my morning dancing with the water vac. Fortunately, as another poster said, it didn't train like 6/06.

Wow ... legit golfball-sized hail in upper nw and a lot of it.