09-10 analogy

Still all snow in upper NW albeit light to moderate

Can't wait to hear that first ping of sleet. That'll probably be the highlight of this year so far.

One just floated by my window. Probably the highlight of this storm for me. EDIT: Make that two. Ripping!

Well according to the LWX probabilistic forecast, I have a 5% chance of getting 8”. So I’m going all-in on that. If someone asked me last year at this time, what are the odds a pandemic would more or less shut down the planet in 2020, I’d have said certainly less than 5%. So using this kind of impeccable logic, I fully expect a foot by Thursday morning.

I like living in a city — although Tenleytown is not exactly an urban environment— so my pissandmoan meter is keyed to other big cities. Westminster gets 20” and I get 2” doesn’t bother me in the least. Hell, in Feb 06 when I got 12” and Columbia MD — which is as I-95 corridor as it gets— got 20”, more power to ‘em. But let Philly proper gets 10” and I get 2”— which seems a reasonably possible scenario with this one — and that sticks in my craw. Yeah, NYC gets more snow than DC, but when CP gets 20” in Jan 2011 and I get 6” of slop .... ugh. And I guarantee the UHI effect is greater at Columbus Circle than Tenley Circle. Totally irrational, but there it is. That’s why December 2000 will always have a special exhibit in my personal Hall of Infamy, SJECS (Screwjob ECS) room. We all have our idiosyncrasies with regard to a hobby that some people probably consider a bit ... whimsical.

Except without the severe

I fight it even around 400' inside the Beltway. Last decent snow in Jan 19, DC more or less jackpotted, which Just Doesn't Happen. So on that basis alone, I am fully expecting a sloppy few inches while the Catoctins and the north Jersey shore do their usual epic nukage dance. It's the way our little corner of the snowiverse works. The solution would be to displace Sugarloaf Mountain 35 miles or so to the SE, but that might create other problems. Or, thinking real big, get rid of the Bay, Alleghenies, and Blue Ridge, and move DC 100 or so miles upriver. We'd probably still average under 20" a year.

Putting in a new deck from which I’ll be able to take great pics of all this winter’s nonexistent snow. Really looking forward to that.

Buddy Guy does a great version of Mustang Sally:

Some showers coming in but there's no umph behind them. Kind of disappointed in today. Got brushed by the cell that raised some havoc in Rockville. And of course the Baltimore/Annapolis axis seemed to get nailed pretty soundly. It's been noted that SPC marginal days seem to deliver just about as often as when we get tagged with an enhanced or (rarely) a MOD. It's hit and miss around here and that's no great secret. On severe days, there's usually always someone like the last one picked at the high school dance. Or the first one kicked off the raft floating in the middle of a vast and unforgiving ocean.

When I was up at Fort Reno, it was uncanny how ominous the sky to the NW was but then nothing as I glanced to the SW. Usually there's not such a dramatic cut off. At the south end of the cell, looking in the direction of Tysons, I saw a lowering and then an appendage coming out of it and I thought, oh, tail end Charlie, wall cloud and, yeah, that appendage is a FUNNEL CLOUD. Then I looked a little closer and realized the inner weenie had been given a bit too much leash.

Nothing going on here, I assure you. Our winds didn't gust much over 30.

Yeah I’m at ft Reno now and theres several CG to the nw

Poolesville looks like the place to be right now

SPC meso shows a supercell composite of 8 in Howard Co

Incoming. Don’t want any hail though

You'll have to ask someone else. I just Google-fu.

Audrey was 959 at Cameron, Rita was less than 950. https://www.weather.gov/lch/rita_audrey Laura at 947 according to NHC's intermediate 6PM Central update.

Maybe if they retire Laura they can replace it with "Lemay," and then when that storm goes through RI, we could say "Bombs away with Hurricane Lemay."

Audrey in 1957 does seem to be a pretty good match. Its landfall was right around where Laura's is forecast: Sabine River/Cameron LA area. According to Wiki, Audrey had a 12 foot storm surge that went 25 miles inland. Strong cat 3. (I think it was downgraded from a 4 during reanalysis years after it occurred.) Devastating loss of life with it. Cameron was destroyed by Audrey, and then by Rita and Ike in the 2000s. I don't think too many people live there anymore. As Moore OK is to tornadoes, Cameron seems to be to hurricanes.

Laura will save the day. Remnants will track along the Mason Dixon line and the DMV will get about 70 EFOs and EF1s out of it over the weekend.

Concur, I just thought it was a funny line.

“Bang on a trash can lid and (Houston) will get the message.” wish I could take credit for that but I saw it on Twitter

April 16, 2011?

Pretty active T&L show just off to the NW. Barrage is slowly creeping in. Bethesda/Potomac area must be getting pummeled.