09-10 analogy

Light to mod snow with a pinger or two mixed in.

Mine is turning 17 in March. I still remember the first event in Dec 2009, when we got about three inches early in the month, and I have a film of my daughter and her friend catching snowflakes on their tongues. And then after the second storm in February, digging out a snowfort so that all three of us (my wife, not my daughter's friend) could fit comfortably inside. (If I"d kept digging, I'm sure we could have fit a yeti in there as well.) It all seems like yesterday. /wistful It's a shame COVID had to compromise your daughter's senior HS year so far but hopefully she'll be able to experience some of it after March.

Light snow, eyeballing it 1-2" (like many things, I'm not good at eyeballing). It isn't covering the side streets I see out the window; hell, in December's little dance, the streets were more covered. After I fortify myself with coffee, will head out for Glover-Archibald Park. Or maybe I'll get ambitious and jebhike up Nebraska to Rock Creek. By the time I get there I'm sure the dryslot currently along the Virginias' border will be fully entrenched overhead.

I'm following the probabilistic LWX product like a day trader probably followed Pets.com in 1999. Now it's high-end max for Tenleytown is 12", up from 9".

Same day there was an earthquake in LA. Absolutely crippled the area and probably a lot of individuals who tried to go out in it. Wasn't much fun when I had the balance of youth; do NOT want a repeat of that. Although the February sleet storm, which rivaled 2007, was pretty cool.

I'm losing faith that I'll get much out of the coastal. These transfers are always iffy and this one seems iffier than most (unless you're running a weather model from Toronto). I'll take my 3-6" from the overrunning tomorrow, but if the deform is nailing Philly and NYC while DC is getting a couple of pity flurries on Monday, that's gonna lead to gnashing of teeth. And I already grind them in my sleep and because of COVID haven't been to the dentist for over a year. So I gotta watch that.

That Feb 25th storm is kind of underrated I think. (Maybe because the V-day sleet bomb overshadows it.) But it snowed like hell for several hours that Sunday afternoon. Huge flakes IIRC. "Paste job" indeed! Coincided with my daughter's birthday party down in Glover Park. I remember the short trip back up to home was a bit interesting.

RGEM blows the Knickerbocker away. Just SMH. EDIT: Well, equals it upon closer examination.

It's easy to get greedy with something you get for free ... well, except for paying for the Internet connection that allows you to see the latest trends in models breaking your heart and teaching you why it's not good to get greedy with something -- snow -- you're ostensibly getting for free. I think there's a tautology in there.

For what it's worth, the NWS experimental product that shows high-end totals, just about every location (60-70 or so), all have either 12" or 13" as the maximum. Chances of 8" in Lexington Park is 33%, in Westminster, 45%. Not saying it's right or wrong, but that's a pretty even regionwide LWX forecast area distribution. Usually it seems places like Berkeley Springs or Woodstock's high end is about 3x or 4x more than that for, say, Prince Frederick. Which, of course, in most cases makes mega-sense. And I'm drinking a Washington (state) Cabernet called Gorgeous. It was on sale for 9.99. I used to drink V before snowstorms/blizzards, but yet another concession to age. Cause the Volume God still must be appeased and that's hard to do with Finlandia at 80 proof.

Mammoth does live up to its name. Whenever there's an AR snow blitz in the Sierras, Mammoth always seems to be near or top of the list.

Yeah it does to NYC what Boxing Day did to DC/Balt. Would serve 'em right. The Euro has a bit of a January 25-6 1987 vibe to it (second of the back-to-back snowstorms of that January), at least as far as the accumulation pattern

"But I'm telling you, these models are funny. First you hate them, then you get used to them. Enough time passes, you get so you depend on them."

light to sometimes not-so-light snow, covering the grass

Now some snow.

"We were somewhere around Barstow ... when the drugs began to take hold."

Sleet beginning to lightly coat things up a bit: cars, trash cans, that sort of thing. Just realized today's the 21st anniversary of the big surprise snow. Doesn't seem nearly that long ago. Last big one when I lived in Takoma Park. Got about a foot. Still have a picture of my beloved beagle at the time out in it, up on the mantlepiece.

Slain mix in up NW. EDIT: Actually more pingers now.

A few flurries on and off. Curiously, as much as I love snow, it's no bigger deal to me if it happens on Christmas than on any other day. Definitely in the minority there I suppose. Maybe because last year at this time, we were in Paris, which is the way to spend the holidays. That was worth 10 at-home Christmases with accumulating snows, or five Christmases with blizzards. Sure glad we went last year before COVID showed up. One of those trips when even though you know how much fun you're having at the time, in retrospect, you still think you weren't appreciating it enough while you were there.

That’s horrible. I am so sorry. Losing an animal companion is bad enough when it is kind of expected, when it’s a shocker like this ...

Yep, that's a good I-95 winter look. Sludge-fest outside now, but maybe we can extract something later this evening.

Why does that remind me of ....

Heaviest it's been all day right now.

Yeah it seems very much rate dependent. Moderate snow, as it is now, and no pinging. Light snow, a coupla pingers.

Nice moderate SN, with the side street beginning to whiten up pretty good now. I hear a ping or two on my inerrant (for that kind of thing) window A/C unit, but it's basically still all snow. EDIT: Gonna have to start thinking in terms of accumulations soon. Imagine that.