09-10 analogy

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0414.html Mesoscale Discussion 0414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...central Arkansas...far northwestern Mississippi...and far Southeastern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 94... Valid 312334Z - 010030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat increasing over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells across east central Arkansas near the Mississippi and Tennessee borders have shown signs of better organization over the last hour. The southern of the two cells has a history of large hail up to 1.75". These supercells are tracking northeastward rapidly around 40-50 mph into a very favorable environment near and south of the Memphis metro. The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) shows observed 0-1km SRH around 530 m2/s2. 0-3 km SRH is observed at around 700 m2/s2. You gotta be kidding me.

Bird is not impressed. EDIT: It could just be a carving, though?

11 tornado warnings from Texas to Iowa. Wow.

Ryan Hall is pretty good, keeping track of all these storms. EDIT: Here's the link to his YT site, if anyone's interested (everyone prolly has it bookmarked already ...): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFJmw4xyG9c

80/60 tornado probs on that Mississippi watch box. What they don’t need. The other night was 90/70.

Rolling Fork’s town water tower got pulled up out of the ground and snapped. Like the proverbial piece of straw. Some hardwood trees completely debarked. Lots of comparisons I’m reading this morning to Mayfield, total path length excepted. Seems like an EF4 candidate for sure. Edit: water tower about 1:20 into the posted drone footage. Seems to be some question as to how well it was anchored. Ratings aside, just devastating.

Mid Atlantic snow lovers and the 2022-3 winter walked into a bar. Winter 2022-3 walked out. #verybadjokes

I’m just hoping for the Ring of Fire starting in May with QLCSs coming through every third day. A new base state like that for our heretofore generally lackluster severe season …. Yeah I could play at that table. Even if it meant the occasional HI of 105 or so

Some of the best times in my life was when my wife and I went hiking in the Sierras. In August and September. I’m trying to imagine how some of the places where we hiked like Mount Dana in Yosemite, which is about 13k, are like now. It’s usually free of snow by July or August, . I wonder if that’ll be the case this year.

Speaking of things the Mid-Atlantic does well ... I read on another forum that yesterday the High Wind Warning for the Mid-South -- ground central for EF4s and 5s these days -- was only the second one that region has had in March since 2006. We've had ... what? dozens of those in March, it seems? ... in that time.

Me too. Up early working and heard some rumbling. I thought, trucks don't come by at this hour. Haven't seen any lightning flashes yet, however.

Well done!

Seems as if Friday severe potential around here — such as it was— is evaporating as quickly as the winter storm potential did a few days ago. I’m sure we’ll get 5 or 6 Wind Advisories in the next week or two, though. Maybe a Dense Fog Advisory as well, to make things really memorable.

Snowing enough for cars to have wipers on.

Very active late February/early March period forecast to occur; perhaps we can sneak some of that up there? And, yeah, an EF2 in New Jersey in February is pretty impressive. Mercer also had an EF2 in 2021, and then there was the Ida outbreak a month later. New Jersey is the new Kansas.

Nice start to the beginning: "All systems go for a major and unusual storm." Fun times on the Grapevine. And this: "Cyclonic spin would allow for waterspout activity over the ocean with brief small tornadoes near the coast." Tornadoes to the west of me, blizzards to the east, here I am/Stuck in the middle with you. Cue Mr. Blonde.

Ho-hum, another wind advisory. Wind chime retailers in the DMV must be making a fortune, what with all the replacement business traffic they get. I am enjoying reading some of the AFDs from out west and the Upper Midwest. Live vicariously, I suppose. I especially like this part from MPX: By 6PM, the phasing and vertical continuity of the upper levels is evident, creating a phenomenal scene at the surface. As the surface low moves up from the southwest, winds will approach 25 to 35 MPH areawide, with gusts approaching 45 to 50 MPH in western and central MN ... This would be similar to what occurred April 2018, when the Twin Cities received 15.8 inches of snow. Due to obstructions, it is hard to get blizzard conditions in major metropolitan areas such as the Twin Cities, but with the actively falling snow and strong winds, this would be an event that could do so. Speaking historically, this event could very well break top five snowfalls in the Twin Cities dating back to 1884. It goes on to mention the "Domebuster" storm -- one of the top 5 -- of 2010. Great name for a snowstorm, I guess that was the one that caused the Metrodome's roof to deflate.

Yeah pretty windy out there ATM.

Not our area per se, but this is an outstanding AFD from Birmingham regarding the possible severe weather in the AL/MS/TN area today. Very educational ... well, to me at least. Anyway, thought I'd share it. https://kamala.cod.edu/al/latest.fxus64.KBMX.html

My daughter got to experience -20 below air temps in CNY. I’ve never experienced that kind of low before, so I’m jealous. Still have her and probably most people beat on the high, though: 122 in the shade in Death Valley in august 2000.

Actually best action definitely to my immediate south. Radar extrapolations are a big no-no but hell I don’t live here and no one in this forum really gives a tinker’s damn, but I believe these local forecasts for 6”+ are gonna turn turtle. 20 miles south of here, yeah. At home, it’s 20 miles NORTH. Oh, well.

Up in Hamilton NY dropping my daughter off at college. Expecting 6-9”, snowing moderately now. We’ve had a heavy band pass though for a bit an hour or so ago. Getting to the high end locally is prolly dependent on where exactly the FRONTGEN sets up, might be just south of here. Got a few beers, my wife and I are going to take a walk in a bit. Really, there’’s nothing like falling snow at night, especially in unfamiliar surroundings, when it’s not too cold out. There’s an old cemetery right across the road from the motel, might be a good place to commune with the snow spirits and tell them to give DC a break. Like Aragon in LOTR demanding the dead to pay off their debt to Gondor. I just don’t have the proper sword. Roads should be fine for trip home tomorrow, at least what the locals say. When {if?} I retire, I could easily do it up here. Take the equity from our modest bungalow in dc and could prolly get a g/d Victorian with wraparound porches and turrets to watch for Redcoats coming across the border from Canada.

“Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice. From what I’ve tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To say that for destruction ice Is also great And would suffice.”

Car thermometer reads 6, but did not start up car to read it. Extrapolating from surrounding WU sites, I’ll head canon that I reached 5. I had an old-fashioned thermometer but it doesn’t stay put in its brace. I really should invest in some glitzy digital product. I’m so behind the times, even the classified ads are simply vague receding shapes on the horizon.

Car thermometer—only one I have—read 19. Went for a bit of a stroll after working out. Not bad out except for the wind, as the bromide goes