AccuChris
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Everything posted by AccuChris
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12z NAM has gotten very RGEM-ish .
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12z HRRR kuchera snow map .
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So far so good on the HRRR .
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These are what they use and its updated every 3 hours and ingests newer data from the short term meso models. It is also “bias-corrected”. They updated it in May 2024 and they tout its “most accurate” and doesnt suffer from wild one-off model swings that a deterministic model may suffer from one run to the next .
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The RGEM is relentlessly unimpressive still. Either its going to score a coup here or fold like a cheap card table tomorrow .
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0z National Blend of Models was a slight bump north compared to 21z .
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21z SREF Plumes were quite good for the LSV. 9” in York, 8” in Lancaster, 7” in Harrisburg and 6” in Reading. Lancaster had a top member at 18” .
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It all comes to SLP placement. A primary into WV and secondary off the Delmarva is a full blown major snowstorm for southern PA .
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Beautiful look at 9AM Monday .
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You can see the confluence is retreating up through NY on the 500mb and the closed low just rolling east. The longer that stays closed the better .
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My new slogan for these snow maps moving forward is “If its not pink, it stinks”. Giggity .
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18z Euro had a slight bump north .
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18z GFS kuchera for next Saturday for the 24 hour period. Again this is JUST its map for next weekend .
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GFS still all in on major storm Friday-Saturday next week too .
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Another view of 18z GFS kuchera snowmap .
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The 18z 3km NAM shows that the real business is about 75 miles wide and per that model, is centered on the M/D line. Clearly a 50 mile shift north or south will make or break our area for better or worse. Regardless, someone somewhere nearby is getting a 10-12 hour thumping with temps in the 20s .
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Appears this time step has all precip offshore by then .
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Im liking the 48 hour time stamp on NAM. Heavier precip field into southern PA .
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12z HRRR looks very nice so far for many. 500mb also shows bowling ball rolling right along due east as well .
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18z Euro Kuchera map. Compared to the 12z there was an ever subtle shift north of the heaviest band .
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Slightly lower total QPF but more expansive. Over a solid widespread major snowstorm .
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Not too shabby from the 18z NAM. Still snowing for most eastern PA counties/zones. 50 mile shift north would be lovely though .
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12z Euro ensemble 10:1 snow .
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Snowing pretty hard now in Lebanon. Temp now down to 31 .
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12z Euro essentially holds serve from its 6z run .
