AccuChris

12z JMA jumped its QPF for sunday area-wide as well .

1/2” of snow here in Lebanon. Just some flurries presently. Temp is 25° .

I dont have access to the Kuchera snowmap for the UKMET but I think someone posted it earlier .

I dont have the Euro out yet .

Some JB thoughts this morning: “But what is going on is the CANADIAN of all the operational models had the right idea that this was an arctic wave cyclogeneis where the vort max hit the tightening gradient that was coming in from the west and the low would wind up further west It has never backed off since catching on though should correct a bit further east” “But here is the lesson Until these features get into the plains you cant let models whiplash you Actually the old rule is when it passes 110 west So you gotta try to not get too crazy about runs. Its like a 5 star recruit. He can blow his knee out or transfer before he ever plays for your team. Let him get on the field” .

Pending the Euro, this is becoming the world vs the NAM this morning .

GFS says game on RGEM .

This is only 10:1 snowmap but ICON was much better at 12z versus 6z .

Closer look at 12z RGEM kuchera. Crush job .

The 12z NAM is quite amazing. I mean nada. Either its scoring the biggest coup here or its totally lost .

Id throw a couple bucks on the NAM doing an over/under of snow Sunday night lol .

Without any scientific reasoning behind it, I am going to hedge my bets that modeling continues to move towards more action for Sunday. The 6z Euro AI model was more juiced up compared to its 0z run and even the “non-event” models made small moves towards more amplification. The Canadian products have been rock solid consistent so we will see. I think DraftKings should start doing spreads and money lines on weather model outputs run to run lol .

I feel like he has been quite subdued this season so far. Hasnt gotten riled up like he normally does lol .

Yes, south into central Virginia and Delmarva on Icon .

18z RGEM looks promising but no surprise since the GEM has been the most bullish .

Absolutely. I would not write off the Sunday system until at least the 0z Saturday runs that come in Friday night. .

12z Euro was very “meh” in terms of snowfall. Sundays event is southeast like the UKMET was, and offers no other precip chances through the rest of the run….just cold and then moderation late in the period .

12z NAM still trying to show some LSV snow love .

I was surprised the afternoon AFD from CTP didnt mention anything about the possible snow scenario for later Sunday. They mention western snow showers and upslope but nada with regards to a wave of low pressure for eastern zones .

12z UKMET shows light snow event Sunday as well .

12z Euro definitely focusing on Sunday and next Thursday events. Will see if GFS jumps back on the Sunday train in future runs .

12z GFS so far for the weekend and next week was a swing and a miss for all systems in our area to produce snow. Going to be model mayhem for several more days for sure .

18z GFS says screw you if you live here lol .

Regardless of snow chances, all models show some impressive cold potential the next two weeks. Any snowfall would only enhance the deep freeze. No January thaw on the horizon yet .

Exactly 1” of snow here in Lebanon .