AccuChris
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Everything posted by AccuChris
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0z HRRR total QPF, 10:1 snow map and Kuchera snow map….
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HRRR slightly colder and SLP cuts east across Virginia to the Delmarva. “Puking” snow come sunrise for many
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Another view of 18z Euro EPS mean snowfall 10:1
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18z Euro was a tad slower and just a touch farther south…miles count for us in the LSV for sure
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Definitely a subtle shift south on the 18z runs. Another 40 mile shift south would put many people in 6+” amounts
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Icon and Canadian suites were non-events for our area 24 hours ago and now the RGEM is printing out higher totals not far to our NE and coming more in line with the other guidance. I will be looking at the 0z HRRR long run again to see how consistent it is with itself from 18z
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18z 3km NAM and 18z long range HRRR are VERY similar in all aspects. Id take my 5” snowfall as both show for Lebanon. Technically, would be the biggest single snowfall of the year for here as I believe the biggest so far was 4” and I am sitting at 11.5” on the season so far
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Here is the 15z SREF ARW, NMB, and the mean solution
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Hour 48 on HRRR has storm ending in CTP and wrapping up in eastern PA. This would be very nice if it could verify. Essentially dumps 2-5” for many in under 4 hours
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Latest long range HRRR showing some intense snowfall come 7AM Tuesday
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Long range HRRR snow. Note is still snowing for most at this point. In the LSV, if you are south of the turnpike its a battle most of the night. North and west of I-81 and north of Route 78 turn over to snow most quickly
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0z RGEM continues to say “what snow” in central PA. Thermals are just too warm for most. 925mb temps hover around 0-+1C and surface temps top 50° on Monday and only mid-30s during height of event. We will see
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0z NAM….overall looks similar
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21z SREF NMB coming in..the mean hasnt generated yet
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Hot off the press
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12z European was quite warm. Surface temps mid-30s and upper levels marginal south of I-80.
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0z GFS another big hit
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18z GFS kuchera
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12z Euro definitely an improvement from its prior runs
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Never got above 48° today in Lebanon. Most models busted here badly even on a 12 hour temp forecast
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Weirdest looking “Rex” block being portrayed on the 12z European. Needless to say, next week isnt a straight-forward warm zonal pattern
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Still sitting at 47° in Lebanon and socked in the low clouds. Window for mixing out and warming up like my southern and western neighbors may be short-lived
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12z NAM and RGEM products were not impressive but 12z GFS holds out hope
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0z NAM looks better
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I was with Kyle at MU around Thanksgiving time and he was very confident in a cold/snowy pattern for February. Im surprised he is “giving up” on that notion.
