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AccuChris

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Everything posted by AccuChris

  1. AccuChris
    Here is the latest AFD from Mt Holly NWS for perspective…talk about making changes on the fly. Bottom line…the NAM suite handled the warm nose intrusion so far north and east best. Typically, models under estimate mid-level warming but are too quick to warm the surface. Keep the NAM scorecard in your back pocket for future systems this winter, especially when it comes to p-type issues, it usually does well, even if an outlier .
  2. AccuChris
    Just had thunder/lightning in heavy sleet right now in Lebanon .
  3. AccuChris
    This grill is my work horse year-round! Love it! .
  4. AccuChris
    Ongoing mix of sleet and freezing rain in Lebanon. Temp down to 28 .
  5. AccuChris
    Sleet has commenced here in Lebanon. Temp is 29 but DP is 12 so wetbulbing will definitely drop the temp some .
  6. AccuChris
    Too soon to tell. This is one run of one model but will need to see what the rest of the 0z suite shows .
  7. AccuChris
    0z 3km NAM QPF is pretty paltry .
  8. AccuChris
    0z NAM was very weak and much farther north… .
  9. AccuChris
    Significant ZR is confined to mostly western PA per the latest NAM .
  10. AccuChris
    18z 12km NAM really limits snowfall in all of PA but keeps it a sleet-fest .
  11. AccuChris
    12z RGEM follows the NAM showing the snow staying to the northeast part of the state but mostly a sleet storm for central PA .
  12. AccuChris
    Only in western/southwestern parts of the state .
  13. AccuChris
    12z 12km NAM has no snow for many but a pure sleet-fest. Impressive with temps in the mid-20s .
  14. AccuChris
    18z GFS kuchera snow and sleet for Friday .
  15. AccuChris
    12z Euro AI Ensemble 10:1 48-hour total snowfall for Friday-Saturday .
  16. AccuChris
    12z Euro AI 10:1 24-hour snowfall .
  17. AccuChris
    12z GFS 10:1 24-hour snowfall for Friday night .
  18. AccuChris
    Friday afternoon definitely cold for many .
  19. AccuChris
    1/2” of snow in Lebanon. Just tapered off it seems .
  20. AccuChris
    12z Euro AI Ensemble doesnt look very warm and snow chances ramp up Friday-Saturday .
  21. AccuChris
    I miss Eric Horst. He was a great mentor to me when I was a met student at Millersville over 20 years ago now. Never emotional, just was purely objective and called it like it was. No agenda, no personal feelings. The best way to get back at keyboard warriors is to simply make your forecast and let the verification do the talking .
  22. AccuChris
    12z model cycle was not very winter-friendly. The good news is run-to-run consistency is basically non-existent beyond Day 5 it seems .
  23. AccuChris
    HRRR showing a nasty “squall line” tomorrow morning .
  24. AccuChris
    Picked up about 1/3” here in Lebanon and it covered everything quickly. Temp down to 20° .
  25. AccuChris
    Snow has commenced in Lebanon as well .
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