AccuChris

Heavy snow shower has broken out here in Lebanon. 22° and blowing sideways .

12z 12km NAM just cannot help itself lol bombs the low into the 960s off NE coast. Oddly the 3km NAM is way weaker and more offshore. Typically the 3km is more bullish versus the 12km .

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I remember the 3k NAM kept nailing me run and after with over 30” of snow when no other model came close. I ended with 31” .

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37° here in Lebanon and fog. Temp likely will spike some when the front and line comes through but I doubt it spike into the 50s around here .

Lets not forget, the GFS and Euro Ensembles 7-10 days ago were run-after-run showing an onslaught of snowstorms and a widespread 25”-40” of snow cover throughout the entire area from last weekend through next weekend. If this week is a dud, it would be an incredible bust on multiple ensemble systems for February. For me in Lebanon, I am at about 3” of snow since February 7th .

0z ICON is wide right .

Cant hate this hour 84 on the NAM .

Some modest changes on the 0z NAM so far through hour 72. More ejection in the Rockies, slightly better height rises in the TN Valley with more southwesterly flow at 500mb .

The latest from JB to add to the debate/discussion .

When do you ever want to be in the jackpot on Days 4-5? Lets give it another 48 hours before we give up .

Its both really and their interaction together gumming up the works .

Its all about that lobe on your graphic over MN and IA. Its holding back and keeping it positively tilted. If that kicks down it changes the whole configuration and the storm is blowing up over the southern mid-atlantic states .

GFS is just a wave that keeps getting pushed along by the northern branch. Need phasing, a capture and deepening. At this point, I dont trust anything beyond hour 72 honestly .