BuffaloWeather

@Buckeyes_Suck You're going to Barbados? What are the testing requirements for them? I saw Norway removed all testing requirements and will likely see many more being added soon. Excited to get back to international travel this year. I know Puerto Rico doesn't require testing too.

NAM has temps below freezing by around 6 for Buffalo.

Yeah that doesn't look nearly as good as a few years ago. Don't see any major flooding with that setup.

Great game between usa/canada in womens hockey. Usa had so many chances but couldn't finish, missing two open nets. The Usa goalie let in one really soft goal which was the difference maker in the game with a 3-2 loss. There are probably 5-6 players on those teams that could play at the NHL level. Certainly better than Cody Eakin is.

Keep us updated, working today until 4. If it looks good after work may head up. Looks like temps go below freezing between 5-7 across Erie County.

As far as snow amounts go, there will be a very sharp drop off in snow amounts with the southern edge of heavier snow bisecting the northern portion of the CWA. Expect 4-7" of snow across Niagara and Orleans counties and possibly far northern Jefferson County as well. If precipitation changes to all snow fast enough, low end warning amounts of over 7" cannot be ruled out in this area. The next row of counties south, including Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe may see 2-4" of snow, with less than 2" from the interior Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes and counties southeast of Lake Ontario. The southern edge of heavier snow amounts will be very sensitive to the position and timing of the front, but the past few model runs have been fairly consistent. For ice amounts, expect 0.10"-0.20" across much of Western NY and the North Country, less than 0.10" from the interior Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario. Precipitation rates will be quite heavy during the freezing rain, so there will likely be more QPF falling as freezing rain than these numbers. High precipitation rates in freezing rain results in very inefficient conversion to ice, with a large amount of runoff. Winds... SSW winds will continue to be quite gusty today, with gusts of 30-40 mph common across the area. Wind gusts will diminish with the passage of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. There will be a brief surge of stronger northerly winds overnight behind the front as colder air rushes back into the region, and this will bring gusts of 25-35 mph areawide and 40+mph along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

I’ve read the books and watched entire show twice. Season 8 ruined the best show ever made. If you liked got watch the Witcher, Vikings, and the last kingdom. All similar and really good shows

I want to be the ice king. Still mad about season 8

52 with some really gusty winds outside right now.

I've never heard of those maps. Its been forever since a good ice storm around here.

Looks like a FZ sounding?

Not to mention this, all models now show over 1/2" of FZ for Erie county.

@SouthBuffaloSteve Where do you go to monitor the ice jams?

Might be able to float down the road tomorrow. Bet there will be some big time flooding in ice jam prone locations.

That was Buffalos 3rd snowiest February. That was the month that gave Boston all those storms. I think we all did well in that month. Just coming a little later in the winter season.

Long Range GEFS shows the battle zone too. EPS/GEFS showing at least 2 weeks straight of overrunning potential with plenty of cold air close by. New England posters/mets are really high on the potential. Some of them are posting analogs for some of the best marches in history.

Tracks Pittsburgh to Lake Placid

@Thinksnow18 Talking to your favorite guy on facebook today. From Don Paul. A few of his thoughts "IMO, overdone. Sleet should dominate over freezing rain in most of WNY during transition to all snow after midnight, from NW to SE. I don't think the subfreezing layer gets shallow enough for prolonged freezing rain on the Niagara Frontier...maybe a few hours, but I think the GFS is somewhat too lengthy with the ZR. Very tight gradient between mod-hvy snow accum in northern Niag County and lighter amts to the S & SE. Poor model agreement at this time." HOWEVER ( with my tail between my legs), several 18z hi res models now move the front thru Buf a little faster and, with warm air aloft, now favor a somewhat lengthier period of sleet & frz rain ahead of snow. Not as much as that GFS run, but potentially significant in the evening.

Some really good signals for a very active pattern after next weeks warmup. Winter isn't over and I think at least 1-2 more storms coming somewhere through Upstate.

I've been out 4 times so far, was hoping for 1-2 more. Need a decently sized storm to get the slopes looking good after the next 10 days of warmth/rain and refreeze. Slopes are going to be pure ice for awhile.

I believe they were doing some off trail skiing? This isn't Whiteface? I've hiked Wright peak and there are no groomed trails around there. They must have been hiking up the mountain and skiing down some open areas with no trees. I'm heading up to the high peaks region to hike on Sunday, almost finished with the 46 hikes.

Glad I was able to go skiing last night. Season might be over. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This period will be dominated by a split...Pacific based flow that will support above normal temperatures through the period. This will especially be the case during the daylight hours when the mercury will average a solid 5 to 10 degrees above typical late Feb normals. The split flow will be highlighted by another potentially significant rain maker that will originate in the southern branch of the unphased jets. Fortunately...broad, flat ridging over the eastern conus should all but guarantee fair dry weather to start this period Sunday and Monday. By Monday night through...energy ejecting out the longwave trough over the western half of the country will promote cyclogenesis within the broad southwest flow over the Ohio valley. As we the case with the initial uncertainty with our current storm system...the various deterministic models are out of step with the amount of organization and also with the timing of this next sfc wave that could produce another significant round of rain over our region on Tuesday. Expansive high pressure over the northern plains Tuesday night should then build across the Great Lakes region for Wednesday with only spotty leftover rain and wet snow showers.

Winter Returns... Cold air advection ramps up the second half of Thursday and temperatures dramatically drop below freezing. There will likely be a 1-3 hour period of sleet and freezing rain as rain changes to snow across the region. Then accumulating snowfall is expected into Friday. Ice accumulations of a trace to a tenth of an inch possible. Snow fall amounts of 3-6 inches possible in Niagara county and 2 to 4 inches possible along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the northern Tug Hill region. Elsewhere, 1-2 inches possible. Very cold with flash freeze conditions Thursday night into Friday morning. Low temperatures will fall to the teens to low 20s and wind chill values in the single digits Friday morning. Winter Weather Headlines are possible Thursday night into Friday for wintry conditions across western and north central NY.