BuffaloWeather

Went down a black diamond at Whiteface and hit a patch of ice and slid down 20% of it lol. Always prefer powder over ice.

RGEM with a much stronger low, same frames.

That was a once in 100 year storm, unlikely to happen again in our lifetimes just like Nov 2014 here.

This storm is weak sauce compared to that one. 6-10" in hardest hit areas if no lake enhancement.

Looks pretty locked for central ny hit to me. All models have nearly same track.

Still big Central NY hit on NAM

NAM much farther NW

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Accumulating snow likely Friday night and Saturday... Deep upper level PV anomaly dropping southeast from Central Canada, along with some sheared out upper level jet energy from the Desert Southwest may provide just enough moisture/forcing to activate the tight mid level baroclinic zone in place to squeeze out a little bit of light snow or flurries Friday morning. However, this activity will have little if any impact for the local area. The more substantial snow will arrive Friday night and continue through the day Saturday. As both disturbances within the northern and southern stream approach the area, they will eventually phasing as they get closer to the eastern seaboard. This will allow for a developing surface wave to rapidly intensify as it moves northward from the mid Atlantic states Friday night into New England on Saturday. Associated precipitation should start off as light rain perhaps as early as late Friday afternoon with temperatures still in the upper 30s and 40s. That will change quickly Friday evening as a sharp cold front moves through. Much colder air will pour into the region switching the rain over to snow very quickly. There continues to remain uncertainty to how the overall system evolves and this will play a large role in how fast the cold air arrives and changes the precipitation over to snow, but it does seems likely at this juncture that most of the area will change over to snow before Saturday morning. Snow will then continue Saturday with increasing snowfall rates, especially for areas where some lake enhancement occurs. A high impact event for the area seems more and more likely with the potential for significant snowfall amounts, so will continue to highlight this storm in the HWO product. On the back side of this system, lake effect snow within a increasing northwest flow will bring additional snowfall amounts to the southeast of the lakes and higher terrain Saturday night. Winds will become quite gusty later Saturday and Saturday night and could bring additional impacts along with the snow.

You can't use the best model and NAM in same sentence.

KBUF spot on with following Euro, way east. Looks like 2-4" here.

It was 78 on my car thermometer as I drove through there. Syr officially hit 75.

It was 80 degrees there Sunday, why are you surprised.

UK

BING with jackpot.

12z GFS looks slightly SE

Long range EPS and GEFS look good. Probably 1 more storm after this weekends.

Its a really bad discussion especially as their viewing area goes all the way to the tug.

NAM RGEM

Overall for the region, ahead of the cold frontal passage Friday evening, temperatures will warm up into the upper 30s and low 40s, which will cause initial precipitation to start off as rain. Then as the front sweeps overhead Friday night into Saturday, temperatures will cool, causing rain to switch over to snow, with a couple of inches of snowfall accumulations expected region wide Friday night. While the surface low originating from the Gulf of Mexico looks to stay far to the south and east of the region, and mainly looks to be a snow event for far eastern NY and VT, the eastern portions of the region (eastern Genesee Valley to the North Country) could see some additional accumulating snows. Then Saturday afternoon, wrap around moisture and well defined CAA will support lake enhanced snows east- southeast of both lakes, before becoming purely lake effect by Saturday night. Additionally, as the surface low pulls away from the region, winds will become gusty.

GEFS

GEM

20-40" across all of upstate. Pretty much the biggest most widespread event since I started posting here in 2010. Don't even remember it lol.

What did Buffalo get for that storm?

That was before we did separate storm event threads, hard to keep track before we did that. That storm was insane Binghamton had 2 all timers within 3 years. I dont think I remember because I was away in Mexico for it.