BuffaloWeather

We had some big storms move through around 3 am last night, I woke up to a huge lightning bolt and immediate thunder, must have hit right next to my house.

I'm predicting this is the year Wolfie gets his big LES event. 3-4 feet. Book it wolf!

It's almost that time of year. Fantasy storm season! What about them bills? I cannot believe they won with 4 turnovers. Historically speaking they had less than a 1% chance of winning that one. Hopefully we can beat the Giants this weekend.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 Nino 3 warmed up a bit this week. Well behind 2017 for cold at this point, except in Nino 1.2 which is volatile. 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 CFS & Canadian have essentially opposite winter forecasts right now, with the CFS warm almost everywhere for SSTs and the new Canadian cold almost everywhere. The Weatherbell guys like a blend of 2013-14/2014-15 or 2013-14 (x3), 2014-15, 2018-19. That gives you a cold eastern tropical Pacific, with a warm western tropical Pacific. I have some issues with it as a blend, but it does look close to current SSTs. The West is generally wetter in winters after El Ninos for one. The sea ice was also a lot higher in 2013/2014 at the minimum extent in September. Also think Nino 4 will be a lot warmer than that blend, but we'll see. The ECMWF Nino 3.4 Sept 1 forecast updated should be out any day now, and the Jamstec is likely later in the week too.

Long range looks warmer.

You two should move farther north if you want cold all year long.

Reed Timmer does this as well for a living. Pretty much my dream job of all time, nothing else would come close a side from a professional hockey player and even then it would be close.

I'm from New York and thought Sandy was lame. So overrated.

He also got a show on television and is likely paid considerably for it. He's living the dream I wish I had. No one should feel sorry from him, he usually reemerges within a week following a chase on here. He's a veteran in chasing Canes all over the world. Some of those Philippians islands facing 200+ mph would have me worried much more.

We learn something from this. This winter I'm not trusting any models until 24 hours before.

This is amazing thank you!

Can't wait for waterspout season.

Cold early is never a good sign for a colder/snowier winter. I would always want a warmer fall. Climo says we cannot get sig snow to at least mid/late October at the earliest.

My uncle and aunt just moved up here to be snowbirds. They are just south of palm beach and euro takes a cat 3/4 direct hit at their 2 homes down there.

My uncle just bought a house back in Buffalo and they are officially snowbirds. They have 2 houses near Delray Beach a little bit south of West Palm. Keeping an eye on this one, as they will have to fly back and board up if the Euro is correct. Pretty much a direct hit as their house is on the beach.

I agree with all of this. https://www.wivb.com/news/national/farmers-almanac-predicts-polar-coaster-winter-ahead?sfns=mo

So close to the warmth.

fixed

Yeah, can't cheer for cold until November. Easy pass. Bring me back

What data set did you use? Back into the 1940s or just the last 10-20 years. There is definitely a correlation between colder than normal winters and above normal snowfall. I like keeping the lake warm and then getting hit with a big event like Nov 2014. The delta ts help the lake effect become extremely strong. October 2006 didn't require a warmer then average lake as the lake temps on average during that time for the year are extremely high. (60s) Just needed a once every 40 year cold air mass to come by with a perfectly setup flow and moisture. As soon as the lake freezes my wintertime fun is basically over. Synoptic just doesn't do it for me.

Last winter we were right around average, just a lot of extremes.

That would be terrible. A colder than normal lake before we have the chance for any snow. My dream winter would be colder than average Nov-Feb and a switch to warmer then average in March. We haven't had that in quite awhile. 2013-2014 maybe? That was a great winter. I'm all about seasons in seasons.

We want this pattern in December.