BuffaloWeather

The latest Euro is similar to the Canadian suggesting a further west and slower solution to the mid to late week storm system. These solutions hang back the upper level energy longer the GFS. The Euro is also stronger with the associated low than the other models. With so much uncertainty, at this stage of the forecast will lean toward continuity which has followed the slower Euro more closely. But with that said, there is plenty of uncertainty in the Wednesday through Friday time frame with several different outcomes that could occur, including lake effect precipitation and snow.

Going to be a fun year if the models are this terrible already.

WXbell has 6 and 18 Euro runs this year, tempting. But I just grab everything off twitter.

We will still get some flakes, and likely first accumulating snow in higher elevations next weekend.

Someone will see flakes fly next weekend.

GEFS are cold, EPS are cool. GEFS=snow EPS=cold rain

I believe the wrinkle in the jet came from the typhoon which can cause anomalous cold really early.

That low goes straight north due to the greenland blocking.

A week from today, still showing up. All the signals are there for a big early season LES storm. Rapidly strengthening low, extreme blocking, and a dump of cold air from a piece of the PV. Good moisture and well aligned flow. It's really early and the lake is really warm but it should be cold enough to not be elevation driven.

Yeah Euro has been consistent, GFS is all over. Trust the analytics.

I didn't think 65" in 24 hours was possible here. Detroit can definitely break 100" in a year given their location. Just need the right setup.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BufHolidayHalloween.html 1993

I’m down here no spouts yet.

The signal is there at end of canadian too, just a few days later. I would wager someone gets accumulating snow between Oct 30th and Nov 2nd.

I mean that is legit cold and as we saw Oct 2006 the extreme temp differences can create additional cooling aloft with high rates of QPF. Taking this map as is, thats a significiant Lake effect snow event at all elevations

Yeah Wolf first snow is definitely coming soon, especially out your way. The Yankees though... =(

Great pics MSF. Looks like rainy and gloomy conditions all week. Yesterday was gorgeous with sun and temps around 70.

I think this is a great year for the midwest and western Great Lakes. We should squeeze out an above average year here too based on Neutral/Weak Enso conditions which are our best winter snow years.

Also Ben Bishop, both Dallas Stars players.