BuffaloWeather

moderate snow in Hamburg. Nice band coming off Erie!

Up of Michigan looks like mid winter

GEFS EPS

Yeah, weds-fri. Pretty far out there but worth watching. Temps are marginally cold enough at that time for snow.

Euro has a nice SW flow LES event hours 160-180. The Canadian has it as well during same timeframe.

Moderate snow here, everything is plastered in white.

He should of used some more quid pro quo in his forecast, don't you think? It's all the rage now a days.

Light snow all morning here, not really sticking though. But it's very picturesque. Really good flake size, snow is beautiful. This winter should be fun with a few new posters! Very active already

Toss the goofus, euro is king.

I agree with most on here, it's virtually impossible to predict long term snow totals around here. Was anyone predicting 35" for Buffalo in 2011-2012? Unless is a huge anomaly like a really strong Nino or Nina. Where the pacific flow dominates the winter or a large SE ridge. During those years you can usually go below normal with snowfall and above normal temps. Weak/Neutral years is a guess as usually other climate controls manipulate the weather such as MJO/AO/Tropical systems/etc...

2014-2015 is a pretty close analog too. https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-the-winter-of-2019-2020-11-01-2019

The analog years I've seen are 1932, 1937 and 1950, 1968 and 1969, 1986 and 1990

Who is that guy and where did he get those analogs from? Most are not using those analog years.

Those analogs look like a strictly Lake effect driven year in a predominant W/NW flow. Buffalo is around 100" in all of those years. I still favor a 5-10% above snowfall winter with around normal temps. It's more difficult to predict lake effect zones then it is synoptic driven locations. One large LES event can impact the entire years totals. If you get the cold, you usually get snow around here. That is not the case for locations along the east coast. 2003-2004- 100.9" 2007-2008- 103.8" 2008-2009- 100.2"

We've had back to back above average snowfall years. We're definitely due for a downer. His accuracy is 80% since 2006, it's impressive.

Probably the most accurate winter forecast poster on this forum. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Exactly. We had epic potential and we will likely get a few inches the next 2 weeks.

I've never seen a low pressure do what the Icon shows, we should lock it in before it changes.

What's up with all these dry arctic highs in mid November in the long range? We need some moisture to get good LES. We got about 11 weeks from today before the lake freezes.

Models took a turn for the worse eh? Next 2 weeks looks pretty lame and I predict we warm up after that. Still really early but it had great potential. When the cold air enters the US to close to us it is rarely good. Need it to enter near Montana, not Michigan.

Cold November’s warm December’s are the new norm. I’d like it reversed.

Well below average

NAM with WWA snows.