BuffaloWeather

I agree the watch should not have been issued until today. But should have been the early morning after last nights runs showed consensus.

Euro has always been king, then ukie then gfs

6-10” of heavy wet snow. Maximums of 10-15” total in chat ridge and higher elevations away from Lake Ontario.

They will issue watches at 4 pm update

It depends on the system. A rapidly strengthening storm is more likely to go further NW. A system such as this one, slowly strengthening overrunning wave is more likely to go a tick SE. From my 20 or so years following the weather very closely I'd say 70/30 go farther NW vs SE in WNY. Our weather is different then that in Eastern NY. Many times the primary ends up going further NW and we get into a mix, while a secondary develops off the coast and many times goes further SE. So it's tough to compare the 2 locations. Overall Rochester into Syracuse are positioned better for synoptic systems then we are in WNY. Our best pattern is a series of alberta clippers with lake enhancement in front and LES behind. I think WNY is the best location in the GL for that type of pattern.

What about the last minute 50 mile NW jog that always taints us?

A few more ticks NW and we will have to worry about rain.

8-10" on Euro at 1:10

That's the exact reason they are stingy. We are used to run of the mill 3-6" events here. For locations that don't receive a lot of snow like we do they issue them quickly. It makes sense to me.

The 18z Russian model showed 11” for Rochester with lake enhancement. Looks good for you guys.

Come to the good side. Leave the dark side of nyc and New England. You can get a huge house here for $1200 a month. That would get you a cardboard box in the aisleway in nyc.

The RGEM is a pretty huge hit. Basically snows across entire forum for over 24 hours straight. That's without lake enhancement. It's a good overrunning track with lots of cold air. Someone could hit a foot across Chautauqua ridge pretty easily by weds morning. Even places south of the lake Ontario at higher elevations could hit double digits. I'm optimistic, if the changeover occurs earlier then expected we would get higher totals. I dont expect very high totals here due to being closer to a very warm lake erie.

I’ll be doing this in the Adirondacks in February this year with some friends

I plan to have a pond someday. If I were you I'd be having ice hockey parties every weekend once that thing freezes. Let me know if you ever do it, ill be over! My best memories as a kid was learning how to ice skate on a pond with my dad. Started skating at 2.

I would go WWA for most places with WSW in Chautauqua ridge and up slope areas around tug.

Top analogs for that time period http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2019110900&map=thbCOOP72

9" without an advisory for Oswego overnight. Was at a buddys poker tournament last night( I won ), driving home around 3 am there was some nice snow in that band off erie. Visibility was under a mile at times. ...New York... ...Oswego County... 4 N Central Square 9.0 in 0100 PM 11/08 Trained Spotter 4 NW Constantia 6.5 in 0900 AM 11/08 Broadcast Media

That's 2' across the Chautauqua ridge. That may be a better spot than the tug. Only a 25-30 minute drive instead of a few hours.

The only thing I heard is single band Oswego. I may be driving there next week.

Too lazy to update the forecast discussion smh.

Euro is WSW for all of of WNY into Tug.

It was a hybrid storm. It mainly impacted central NY. Rochester had 15", Binghamton I believe had 30"? https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A

Last mid Nov we had a large storm as well ..Allegany County... Andover 12.0 530 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Cayuga County... Port Byron 15.0 555 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Chautauqua County... Jamestown 6.2 633 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Fredonia 4.0 300 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter ...Erie County... Sardinia 8.5 649 AM 11/16 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Livingston County... Lima 11.5 500 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Conesus 10.0 523 AM 11/16 Broadcast Media ...Monroe County... 2 S Fairport 9.5 613 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Penfield 8.0 620 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter ...Ontario County... Bristol 12.0 634 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Wayne County... Williamson 10.0 523 AM 11/16 Broadcast Media ...Wyoming County... 4 W Warsaw 14.0 627 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter I believe in 2016 central NY had a massive Mid November storm and we all know what happened in Nov 2014. Nov is a winter month around here. December on the other hand...

Yeah looks like a long duration event from Monday into Weds.