BuffaloWeather

Pretty active and exciting GFS run and a nice LES event while I'm in Florida for Metro.

Some are showing more.

We're definitely looking at thermal issues. There will definitely be a strong band of wet lake snow somewhere tomorrow night-weds morning.

That's what happened in Oct of 06, the heavy stuff fell overnight. That's above my knowledge level. But nearly every high res model output is putting Advs/Warning level type snows.

lol

Rain/Wet snow according to NWS. Unless the rates can get intense enough to cool the column enough.

The issue is Neutral Enso conditions result in a very up and down pattern. There are other drivers that are dictating the forecast. MJO, PV, AO. I don't expect anything to really lock in all winter. It's been a great "winter" for most of the midwest and northeast already. Almost everyone is way above normal snowfall totals for Dec 2nd.

I haven't seen models this confused in years. They are good for about 7 days out with temps and 3-4 days with precip, anything beyond that is brutal.

Make sure you book Dec 15-19th as the next big LES event. I'll be in Florida, you know it's going to happen. I'll be booking a quick flight home if it does.

Light-Mod snow here, sticking to grass, but it's too wet to stick to ground.

Going to be a really close call, I still think wet snow. 1-2"

Concrete allows for a good pack. That will likely last at least a few weeks. Would allow me to go cross country skiing, I'm all about it.

Lake Erie is at 43 degs today, average for the day.

I said the AFC. Allen doesn't really have any great weapons. Beasley is a wr3, Brown a wr2. We don't have that Julio, Adams, Green, etc.. WR1. He doesn't have a great TE either and the RB are average. No real dynamic speed or power rusher. He's doing quite a bit with average players.

The Bills are the 2nd best team in the AFC, the Pats looked terrible last night. The Bills destroyed Dallas in Dallas on thanksgiving. Ravens are the best team in the NFL. This week is HUGE. If we beat the Ravens at home we control our own destiny for top AFC team. Allen is legit.

1-2 degs colder and we would be talking Advs Weds for SW flow lake enhancement.

That should keep it around for awhile.

Yeah sorry I wasn't even thinking about temps. I did see Batavia getting hit hard all night, they had to be close to half a foot. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

A strong band clipping the NE portion of Erie county. Going to be a close call for the airport.

You guys are so focused on posting model maps that you don't even appreciate the snowstorm and that filling radar! The storm is here model runs are done its now casting.

New Thread!

So it looks like we will start off December with a decent snowstorm for the central and especially eastern areas of NYS. Looks like 1-3" across WNY, 3-6" for Rochester, 6-12" for Syracuse. Following this storm there is an interesting period on Weds where a lake enhanced setup may affect Buffalo and give them a few inches. On an initial SW flow, lake effect snow is expected to begin near Buffalo/Watertown Tuesday night. It likely will not be until early Wednesday that lake parameters maximize...with Lake Induced EQL rising to near 7-9K feet, and moisture increasing in a lowering snow dentritic growth zone that the bands of snow will become moderate. By this time, with the upper level shortwave crossing our region, expect the bands of snow to be now east of the Lakes, across the Southtowns/Boston Hills and the Tug Hill region. Here on Wednesday we will increase PoPs to likely for lake effect snow. Looking further out.... A very up and down pattern upcoming. Lots of warm ups and cool downs. No real sign of any arctic air in the forseeable future. We get some pacific help with a +PNA but we go positive for the NAO and AO with the PV on the other side of the globe. The models have been highly volatile though, so this doesn't mean much. I think weeks 2 we get a decent torch according to the CPC. Hopefully the pattern changes but it looks like we're heading into a warm MJO cycle.

As already mentioned this is a classic miller B type storm track. Most of these storms do not go further NW last minute as the primary is weakening. As a result of that you have to worry about the dreaded last minute SE trend. If the secondary develops just a tiny bit quicker it can result in all the dynamics being transferred quicker to the secondary low pressure and hit New England harder. You also have to worry about possible dry slot issues if the primary hangs on longer then expected. This is a higher latitude miller B then pictured below so the track is a little different but same concept.