BuffaloWeather

Tues-Thurs next week look interesting. Looking out just beyond the end of this period...there is increasing agreement amongst the medium range models that much colder air will then overspread our region for the middle and latter portions of next week. If realized...this would result in temperatures falling back to below normal levels...which in turn could lead to the potential for significant lake snows downwind of the lakes dependent upon how the background synoptic environment evolves across our region. Stay tuned...

Someone came into my branch and said 6" at Harlem and Mineral Springs. Anyone around there?

Looks like its coming down pretty good around transit

Yeah it's not really a bust. The forecast was for 3-7" and that is likely to occur as the band strengthens the next few hours.

New map. Overnight LES, the "band" was quite weak all night. Too warm.

Light snow has started here.

My office window faces towards the lake. I can see it coming now.

I plan on doing it this year if it happens, anyone is welcome to come.

There were definitely places above 60" depth at the end of event 2. I measured 52" and I know places near Elma/Wales had over 100"

Yeah we got to around 4-6" an hour at times in that 2014 event but nothing like places further north. We just stayed in the band for the longest period of the time between the 2 events. 2001 was just amazing. That week was incredible. I have some pictures of snow castles in the city of Buffalo. My dad drove me and my sister to my grandmas house in the city, we made snow tunnels throughout the yard. My parents house in Cheektowaga got destroyed in that storm, close to the airport. They had to have about 20-30" more than the city had. Northwest portion of the city near Buff State.

I need this.

I believe it. LEK has said he has seen double digit rates a few times throughout the years. The triple lake connection is unmatched east of the rockies.

I think Nov 14 might have gotten up to 8-9" per hour at one point, but nothing in double digits. There is a timestamp map of a picture looking out the window that shows it, have to look up in my photos.

I don't think this has been updated with Nov 2014 totals. 65" in 24 hours. I believe the 77" total has been disproved as well

I love Niziol my favorite met of all time.

The GFS and GEM are just amazing runs across the board, very active pattern. Several shots of synoptic and LES chances.

Not bad eh?

The last storm was an all timer for eastern NY. Some crazy stats from NE forum. The ALB area QPF storm total amounts are insane. A large area of 2.0-3.0” water with even a couple stations exceeding 3” QPF for the storm. Very rare to get that much QPF in an “all-snow” storm that far from the ocean. I honestly can’t remember anything like that for total QPF around the Capital District in a snow event. Even March 2001 was less than 2” water I think. The town next to my parents, Altamont had 2.64” water and 27” snow. Albany City 2.28” and 23.9” snow. That area of ENY seemed to miss the higher ratio stuff you guys further east got last night.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

Top analog

Sometimes LES events can create their own cold air if the rates are high enough.

Globals for LES within 24 hours? Interns?

Elevation based event with thermal issues?

That last one has 10-14" at 1:10 across southtowns.