BuffaloWeather

# 3 analog is Nov 2014.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK... Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest near the end of the event. It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the Wednesday night time frame.

That's because 90% of the posters on here live around Syracuse somehow. WNY has a million people and 5-6 posters on here. The predominant sentiment I get via FB is that 99% of the people in Buffalo hate the snow. They need to learn to embrace the season since its the most wintry big city on the eastern portion of America. Me and you get hit with a similar wind direction. W/WSW. Onondaga has a higher pop. then I thought 465k vs Erie countys 925k. People in Buffalo need to embrace it like those in Syracuse do. Also didn't realize 6,000 people moved into Erie County from 2010 to 2017. That's pretty shocking, really shows how the city is being revitalized and why housing prices are sky high right now.

Those snow totals for the 1940s were abysmal. I know Buffalo had the recording station at the upper Niagara river, where was Rochesters recording station?

Already at 70% pops for Tues night into Weds

Anyone around the airport? They’ve been in a strong band for awhile.

Transient winds are showing up on all models so don't expect any insane totals. The cold air is definitely coming and that should result in heavy LES as the moisture is there. Winds are the only questionable factor.

@Thinksnow18 shortwave showing up on GEM

Strong LES has massive impacts on travel in comparison to synoptic storms. They rarely impact travel around Buffalo. We go about our normal day with storm system snow, lake effect is another animal. There have only been a handful of synoptic systems that have truly impacted us. The biggest one in my mind was March 2008 when I got in a pretty bad car accident in Eden.

NWS mentions east of the lakes. Going to be pretty close.

Winds look W/WSW right now. I'm usually on northern end of the band with west winds. Early season events usually go farther north then modeled too. Still too far out to judge winds as shortwaves can change mean wind direction and won't know that until 1-2 days before.

Looks like boston hills got hit good last night. 1.8" total here.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night through Wednesday. This may allow heavy lake effect snow to develop east of Lake Erie.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...Cattaraugus County... Perrysburg 1.8 515 PM 12/04 Co-Op Observer ...Erie County... Harris Hill 6.0 430 PM 12/04 Trained Spotter 1 SW Ellicott 5.5 500 PM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Buffalo Airport 5.4 654 PM 12/04 ASOS 1 W Colden 3.7 545 PM 12/04 Co-Op Observer 3 SW Wales 2.8 545 PM 12/04 Co-Op Observer ENE East Aurora 2.1 628 PM 12/04 NWS Employee ...Jefferson County... Watertown 1.7 601 PM 12/04 Trained Spotter &&

BUF should never have taken that Ads down. WSW criteria was met at your home and that's in northern erie county. It was definitely worthy of it for Northern erie, more so than southern erie.

Alden had 3.3" as of 6 am this morning. Sure they are over 6" by now. Airport 2.5" as of 7 am. Alden 3.3 600 AM 12/04 Trained Spotter Buffalo Airport 2.5 654 AM 12/04 ASOS

Borderline heavy snow in hamburg last 30 mins.

And they said lake effect can't be low ratio. Pure slop out there right now.

My managers daughter said shes snowblowing snow on transit and french and its bad at George urban as well. The farther you get away from the lake the worse it gets.

We take

French and transit has to have a decent amount anyone around there?

There is a pretty big LES event on GFS Late tuesday into thursday next week. Winds look WSW at this time. And cold air will not be an issue this time around.

What a waste

I used to love wind events until I got my home and my vinyl fence...

Delta stop. The wind is destroying my vinyl fence panel by panel...I need it to get through spring. In the process of suing the guy who did it. It's not a fun process...If I don't win I have to come up with $4k to fix it this spring.