BuffaloWeather

The Icon looks terrible for lake effect with dry air and cap issues the entire time. I actually like this event much more for Ontario and the Tug then off Erie. But it is the Icon.

It moves from that location almost due east. Keeps the winds WSW, I still think it makes it up to the Metro. Winds also veer on Thursday, but dry air moves in and cap lowers. But it has to be watched.

Just got the new Rainex silicone wiper blades too. The last pair I had were garbage, (forget the make) these are fantastic. Would highly recommend.

Pirelli Cinturato P7 All Season Plus https://www.tirerack.com/tires/tires.jsp?tireMake=Pirelli&tireModel=Cinturato+P7+All+Season+Plus

NAM within range! Can see the shortwave diving in lower superior.

@WesterlyWx remember this chase?

I drive a 2016 Mazda CX 3 grand touring and get through everything with AWD and all season tires. Gotta find a picture of last years chase.

It's going to be a very up and down pattern based on the indices. It's not that bad of a pattern, and I would go with the EPS and GEFS instead of individual operation runs. The ENS are quite a bit more tame with the mild air. The models have also been pretty terrible outside of a week.

I've driven in some crazy strong bands, but the worst conditions I've ever driven in were coming back from Holiday Valley one night at like 11 pm a few years back. The roads from Ellicottville to Springville are not lit at all and they go through the mountains. We hit a band that had to be 3-4" per hour with 20-30 MPH winds. I pulled over and waited for the band to pass. Events like 2014 you don't want to even bother with. You want to get somewhere before the band starts and then chase from that location.

My house is always open for chasers. It's too big for me and my wife. 2 extra bedrooms, just need to get beds in them.

Yeah I wouldn't do that quite yet. Still not liking a few things on the models. By Sunday Evening we should have a pretty good idea.

I believe NWS updated this: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK... An Arctic cold front will cross the region for Tuesday. As such, cold air will rapidly pour into the area causing the ongoing rain showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon. Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb through the night on Tuesday into Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850 mb temperature to drop to around minus 20C. In addition, multiple parameters are stacking up, from good over-lake instability, available moisture, and positioning of the upper and lower level features suggesting for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the day on Wednesday. As per usual, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact positioning of the lake effect bands, however the lower resolution models are suggesting winds to be generally westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period before veering northwest near the end of the event. High pressure will pass through the region for Thursday into Friday, lowering the chances for precipitation. Near the end of this period winds will shift southwesterly advecting warm area into the region.

Michigan mentions the possible issues with the LES event well. A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday. Delta T`s in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to 30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent. That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring (even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be) we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan.

That's some really cold air too, extreme instability. Dry air moves in by Thurs which should cancel the LES.

Looks like WSW winds on the Euro

As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie.

The winds change direction due to shortwave north of lake superior. You can see the dropping heights there. High res will better pinpoint this.

This pattern will have multiple chances of LES and synoptic. It looks fantastic. It will still be up and down though.

It still looks decent, but really want to get into high res timeframe to pinpoint details.

An analog is the best atmospheric representation of any point in past weather history that best matches what the current models output for that specific time period. There is science to it, it's not just old weather events compared to future weather events. So the number one analog would be the one that matches up to the atmospheric pattern to that specific time period.

I like your shed wolf. Where did you get?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0C-1-12#

I was just kidding lol. Quite a few good events in there, most are deep southtowns jackpots. Boston/Colden/Springville. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2019120600&map=thbCOOP72

Plain rain here. The little bit of snow we had is melting away. Really debating on going to the game Sunday. I know we are most likely going to lose but conditions look fantastic. Highs in the mid 40s.

Dec 2001 and Dec 1995.