BuffaloWeather

They do look good. That will be here this afternoon, but likely across ski country as temps just get cold enough.

Yeah I don't know what to think about this event lol

The one index going for us and its a pretty important one for the eastern lakes. After that threat it warms up.

Our average high is 38/26 right now. We actually only average 32 or below for a high temp in KBUF from Jan 3rd to Feb 8th. That's why its tough to sustain a good snow pack here. I do agree with you, our winters make almost everyones winters look bad, especially for bigger cities.

They're useless, get better info on here. Honestly I haven't watched any weather segment in months.

Last few frames have that heading NE instead of SE. Would give more residence time for the band. Not a terrible look.

If that shortwave stalls out over superior there is still some good potential for Weds. I've seen it many times before. That low pressure off the coast coming further inland may slow it down. You can see it on the high res models.

We had a white thanksgiving and christmas last year here.

Let the PAC flow through you.

GEFS are a little colder but they've been cold bias for quite awhile.

Day 10 on is a PAC flood on nearly all ENS. Let's see how much they change or we will be wearing shorts for Christmas.

Just saying, central NY has had more WSW then anyone aside from upper peninsula of Michigan. Storms are going to track all over the place, you'll never get a consistent storm track each time. Still you're above average this year in snowfall.

You've had 2 winter storm warnings already and its only Dec 9th.

Every indice going the wrong way. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

Yeah and the predictable screen passes for a loss of 2, he did that 3 times this game. You knew it was coming every time. He is the weak link in our coaching staff.

Taken from the Bills forums but this is a good break down on Allen today, he was pretty bad. "Allen was downright awful in the first half. While Baltimore's defense got pressure at times and even caused a fumble, Allen still had plenty of throws with time and to guys who were open. On the first three drives, he had a player open 20+ yards down field and missed him by almost 5+ yards each time. On two of them, I got the impression that Allen was assuming the receiver was going to break a different way. Regardless, two of them could have gone for touchdowns. If he hit even one of them, it's a very different game. In the second half, Allen had at least two plays where he held onto the ball for 5+ seconds and took a sack. one of them knocked us out of Field Goal range today. But like I said earlier, others contributed to his bad game with key drops. Knox dropped a pass because he was already looking downfield, but we still got 3. Singletary dropped one because he got excited about the open field ahead of him if he could beat one guy. Beasley technically dropped a deep pass, that yes a millionaire receiver should catch, but was still not easy. Overall, Allen hits just 10% more of his passes and we are either tied at the end or winning. He played bad against a good defense and I think even he will tell you that. but again, we had the ball with a chance to tie by the end." That sack at the end of the game...We were 3rd and 3 and he took a sack that resulted in a 14 yard loss. You have 2 plays to get 3 yards...He HAS to get better at throwing the ball away.

Went to a house party last night in Lancaster, was shocked at how much snow they had on the ground there and the piles. We've had just grass here for awhile. They must have gotten hit pretty hard from that LES event. Went to the Bills game today, they played so well against the best team in the NFL. This team is actually legit, if Allen played decently we win that game. Lake effect event looks lamer every model run.

Lake effect event went south pretty quick. every model run since a few days ago has gotten worse. The low to the east that keeps coming closer each run is messing it up.

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MUCH colder air will rapidly filter in as cold air advection ramps across the Lower Lakes. This will likely spin up the lake effect snows off both lakes beginning Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday night. Now for the details... Arctic air mass will rapidly spill in behind a strong cold front on Tuesday. While the air mass will definitely be cold enough to provide the necessary over lake instability (H850T -12 to -13C), there are some parameters that won`t be favorable for a MAJOR event. First and foremost, residence time of the lake effect bands off Lake Erie and Ontario will be limited at any one location. Right now it appears the bands will be moving around quite a bit which will limit snowfall accumulations. Next, guidance has been fairly persistent showing a fairly dry air mass behind the front and this system lacks that deep synoptic moisture to maximize snowfall. Now this isn`t to say there won`t be some decent accumulations, especially east of Lake Ontario where upstream connections will come into play. It also can be said that this might be some of the coldest air so far that we`ve seen this season. A second re-enforcing shot of Arctic air on Wednesday will send H850T down to -18C/-20C, with an associated shortwave providing some moisture which will enhance ongoing lake snows. Otherwise, there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this event, especially in terms of specific band placement and timing. Stay tuned as things could change. In terms of temperatures, highs on Tuesday will actually occur just after midnight. Daytime temperatures will fall into the 30s behind the front. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to low 20s by daybreak on Wednesday. Wednesday, highs will average 10-15F below normal with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 20s. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lake effect snows will be ongoing Wednesday night with additional accumulations. Surface high pressure over Tennessee and Ohio will build into the Lower Lakes into Thursday. Winds will begin the gradual shift from west-northwesterly Thursday morning, to more southwesterly by late in the day Thursday. Although this will signal the beginning of the warm advection process, it will be a slow one. Temps aloft will still be plenty cold enough to support a lake response, though will be quite muted when compared to the previous as shear and continued drier air (lowering cap) come into play as well. Will most likely see the typical south to north `sweep` of the lake bands as winds slowly back from west- northwest to southwest Thursday into Thursday evening. Any lingering snow showers northeast of the lakes Thursday night will become even more sparse by Friday as progressively warmer air continues to push in aloft.

Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There remains the potential for heavy lake effect snows east of Lake Ontario during this time period. Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There remains the potential for accumulating lake effect snows east of Lake Erie during this time period.

I’ve driven in everything with this car

Yeah they are fantastic. With AWD they truck through pretty much everything.

That link above is fantastic for people learning about LES.

It varies depending on the instability. Nov 2014 had 20k cloud tops in event 1 and 15k in event 2 if I'm reading that correctly? @OSUmetstud From a climatological perspective, the storm had signs of an unprecedented event early on, with historical analogs and climatological ensembles pointing to a rare if ever seen event over a 30 year climatology. 500 mb temperatures eventually dropped to -42C on the KBUF sounding Tuesday evening. With lake temperatures around 9C, lake induced equilibrium levels exceeded the 500mb temperature and maxed out near 20000'. Further up in the atmospheric column, the 200mb heights were lower than anything in recent memory. The more traditional 850mb temperature value of -15C was also on the lower edge of the climatological spectrum.

700-850 MB- 5000-10,000 feet http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/lesnow/