BuffaloWeather

Can’t complain here

I’m so drunk at the wedding I won’t be able to measure correctly

Hamburg has a few inches when I left around 3-4

Top analog for tomorrow, all of them are pretty elevation dependent.

Perrysburg gets 8-12" of slop with this type of setup.

Today is pretty warm. High of 45 and sunny. It's beautiful out. Wish the wedding was today instead of tomorrow.

Congrats Dave! What is the MR mean? Is that related to xrays?

It's not as big of a warmup here as it is in the midwest, it cools down substantially as it heads east. We should still see 1/2 days of 40s though.

Was going to post this, the next week looks good for you wolf. You should get hit 2-3 times.

It should be brief though and it cools down as it heads east.

All ENS look really warm throughout entire USA aside from the NE from Dec 19-25. Hopefully its brief.

Newest analogs are out. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2019121312&map=thbCOOP72

Yeah, nearly every model shows WWA snowfall for WNY. The event is tomorrow, KBUF messing up or thermal issues? Timing looks good too.

GFS has a snowstorm and a LES event from Tues-Friday

Some decent analogs for Sat Night event. Kind of hoping for a dud as I am in a wedding for my buddy Sat. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2019121212&map=thbCOOP72 Way out there but some decent analogs for good LES on W/WSW flow mid next week. Actually some really strong consensus for so early, you don't usually see this in the analogs this far out. Looks like Weds-Thurs timeframe. I'll be back 5 PM Thurs so expect a big event on Weds. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2019121212&map=thbCOOP72

Snow totals from yesterdays LES. I figured Elma had highest total. 11.5" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

If that happens I'll be chasing as i'm off next week.

GEFS

The RGEM was by far the best model for the LES yesterday. All those high res models that had northtowns jackpot were wrong. ARW/NMM/WRF.

Warning criteria met in many locations NEW YORK ...Erie County... West Seneca 9.2 359 PM 12/11 NWS Employee 1 SSW Spring Brook 8.3 500 PM 12/11 Trained Spotter Locksley Park 7.0 440 PM 12/11 Trained Spotter 4 NW Alden 7.0 235 PM 12/11 NWS Employee Marilla 6.5 300 PM 12/11 Trained Spotter 1 S Lancaster 5.0 440 PM 12/11 Trained Spotter 1 W Tonawanda 4.4 100 PM 12/11 NWS Employee 3 NNE Lackawanna 4.0 800 AM 12/11 Social Media 1 N Loveland 4.0 800 AM 12/11 Broadcast Media 1 NW Kenmore 4.0 915 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Athol Springs 3.8 800 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter 1 SSW Blakeley 3.7 725 AM 12/11 NWS Employee Soldiers Place 3.5 900 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Buffalo Airport 3.2 200 PM 12/11 NWS Office 1 NW Williamsville 3.1 200 PM 12/11 NWS Employee Buffalo 3.0 830 AM 12/11 Broadcast Media 1 NNW North Evans 3.0 900 AM 12/11 Public Harris Hill 2.4 530 PM 12/11 Trained Spotter Sardinia 1.5 700 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter

This thread kind of died. Picked up 7.2" from todays lake effect event. Had some snowfall rates above 2" per Few pics From NYS thruway