BuffaloWeather

The one eyed pig near Alaska is showing up and once it does it takes awhile to move if it ever does. 2011-2012 featured it. It's a terrible look.

Don't worry guys day after tomorrow is coming at end of GFS run.

Yeah latest trends do not look good in the long range, literally all signs pointed to a great winter but if we get skunked from mid Dec to mid january there is virtually no way we get above average snowfall. We have about an inch here and 3-4" in Eden.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The pattern starts to at least try to change as the long term progresses with a deep trough developing over the western CONUS. This eventually allows for Pacific moisture in southwest flow to advance toward the Great Lakes by late this week as the resident ridge gradually deamplifies and becomes more positively-tilted. A leading shortwave trough may start to work at the apex of the ridge by Thursday with the Canadian and ECMWF favoring this scenario. This would lead to less warm weather later in the week and wetter conditions, however the GEFS doesn`t favor this scenario and instead spins up a massive system for next weekend. Given the amount of time between now and these eventualities, a blended solution was favored with a modest decrease in warming late in the week. While the models don`t agree much between Thursday and then, there does see to be decent agreement on the next shot of Arctic air making its way toward the region by the end of next weekend. Granted, modeling systems all seem to be too aggressive with these types of situations, so it wouldn`t be all too shocking if it was delayed, but it certainly seems like the trend amongst global ensembles to favor troughing spreading east across North America beyond day 7.

Not yet, was waiting to see what the weather will be as we most likely rest our starters as it won't have an impact on anything if we lose tomorrow. If tickets are really cheap I'll probably go as a celebratory day of the Bills season.

We take

The GEPS look similar as well.

EPS look good in long range, matches the GEFS. Looks like a clipper pattern which is by far my favorite winter pattern to be in.

We're going to have low to mid 40 deg water temps in Mid January so always a chance at a big event.

A decent look around the new year.

Rochester airport the highest again.

MJO looks to head in phase 6-7. Expect it to continue to go into phase 8 and then 1-2.

Yearly average temp Buffalo: High: 56.3 Low: 40.2 Average: 48.25 Rochester: High: 57.3 Low: 39.5 Average: 48.4 Syracuse: High: 57.8 Low: 40.1 Average: 48.95 Buffalo Dec: High: 36.1 Low: 24.1 Rochester Dec: High: 36.5 Low: 23.5 Syracuse Dec: High: 37.2 Low: 23.2 Buffalo Jan: High 31.2 Low: 18.5 Rochester Jan: High: 31.7 Low: 17.6 Syracuse Jan: 31.7 Low: 16.8 Buffalo Feb: High: 33.2 Low: 19.2 Rochester Feb: High: 34.1 Low: 18.6 Syracuse Feb: High: 34.5 Low: 17.7 Buffalo Mar: High: 42 Low: 26 Rochester Mar: High 42.8 Low: 25.8 Syracuse Mar: High: 42.4 Low: 25.7 Winter Averages Buffalo- High: 35.62 Low: 21.95- Average: 28.78 Rochester- High: 36.27 Low: 21.37 Average: 28.82 Syracuse: High: 36.45 Low: 20.85 Average: 28.65 You're right wolf Syracuse is slightly colder then Roc and Buf in winter. Too small of a difference to make much of an impact though. Correction: Overall Buffalo has a colder average temperature then both Roc and Syracuse due to lake breeze. But Syracuse has a colder winter on average then Buf and Rochester. I'm still on vacation so lots of time to research.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Monday Sunny, with a high near 43. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Christmas Day Cloudy, with a high near 40. Definitely some good dog walking weather.

The same thing happened last year. Most ninos feature warm Decembers. I expect an above average snowfall for Jan and Feb. I still like my call for 5-10% above normal which would put Buffalo at 100-110"

Christmas looks very warm.

I mean I'm at 33" and it's not officially winter until Dec 21st. Right on track I would think, going to need a few decent LES events to catch up. The next 10 days look blah and its close to peak LES season. At least the lake should remain warm. Just got back from star wars, the end of a 40 year series. Can't believe its over. I walked outside the theater to some of the prettiest snow ever. Nice band moved through from Ontario. Just goes to show you, get the cold and we will almost always finish above normal snowfall.

Yeah but the pacific is terrible it’s a jet of warm air. Definitely an outside chance of an event if everything works out perfectly but overall low percentage pattern. Also literally zero chance of lake effect.

Highest total was 15” off Erie and 17” off of Ontario. Rochester with the highest total in Monroe county as usual, definitely measuring wrong there. Can’t get highest total in county every event, at least make it a little less obvious...

Just got back and have 4” on the ground with some decent piles on my road. Had to be 3” of new snow just today. Wintry scene out there. Long range looks

Pretty odd. I’ve traveled all over the world and upstate New York has some of the nicest people ive ever met. You should see how they all come together during large lake snow events. Everyone helps each other out. Buffalo is known as the city of good neighbors. I know Syracuse has been going through a difficult time economically which could lead to some bad attitudes. Also the pace of life is different living in the country compared to a city/town. But I’ve never seen that which you just described anywhere in New York. Obviously everyone’s situation is different. Go to Pittsburgh or Boston or south Florida and talk about self absorbed. New York City is its own animal and the pace of life there is just different. It’s terrible in those locations.

That’s a nice band wolf, can see 1-2’ somewhere off Ontario. Can’t complain to much here 84 and sunny last night for a sunset cruise and fishing trip. looks like I come back to a cold Thursday.

The analogs nailed this one