BuffaloWeather

This does not appear to be a major lake effect event, but there will be a narrow window for some decent lake snows. Lake induced instability will be minimal, but ample when considering moisture provided by the shortwave and upstream lakes. There still is uncertainty in model guidance, but it appears the best chance for snow will be Tuesday night and Wednesday when the trough moves through. The most persistent winds are likely to be WSW which would focus any snow generally across the snow belts E-ENE of the lakes. Specific amounts will depend on band movement, and the evolution of the upper level low. Moderate accumulations are not out of the question, but the more likely outcome is that there will be only minor snow accumulations.

I found the cold

CFS

Getting some EPO/WPO help in the LR. That PNA though...

Eps back to cold in LR. Flippity flop we go.

There you go Syracuse posters

Yeah, everything is a non driver for warmth yet we are setting record highs and it doesn't look to be ending. I've never seen anything like it.

I'm starting to get worried as the Euro weeklies show a torch through all of January. That strong PV is a huge issue. We are basically at a neutral Enso state yet we are getting dominated by a PAC flow similar to that of an El Nino.

Its warmer here right now than anywhere in USA besides south Texas and Florida. My Car thermometer read 61 30 minutes ago.

Its warmer here right now than anywhere in USA besides south Texas and Florida.

Guess where the warm front is. Thought it felt muggy out.

We're going to go into January with lake temps like this. Very rare.

My car thermometer read 61. I just went to Lowes in shorts.

EPS shows cold sliding down under from Alaska.

Buffalo is -1.9 inches for snowfall departure on the year. We are only .6 above normal for temps in December, that likely goes up a lot next few days. Nov: -4.9 Degs Oct: +1.5 Degs Sep: +3.0 Degs

End of Euro finally shows some cold air entering the GL.

This coincides with the MJO going into phases 8/1/2. Quite a lot of spread still.

You can see the EPS showing something similar as the cold air from alaska modifies as it comes south. Cold air enters around Jan 6th.

We go from this To this:

GEFS are cooler then normal from Dec 31st to end of run. Improvement.

This is basically our setup right now. But yes MJO is having a huge influence on our weather, as it did last year. Lots of convection. We have a very strong PV where Alaska has been brutally cold. This leads to the Pacific air dominating the lower 48. There are no mechanisms to bring the cold air to our region. The one good thing is the PV is on our side of the globe, not in Siberia/Russia.