BuffaloWeather

Hasn't stopped snowing here. Still extremely wet, but sticking still. Big difference between Blasdell and here.

Moderate to almost heavy snow in Hamburg, sticking Quite the difference in blasdell

Looks good wolf. Looks like I will be on the northern edge of the snow tonight as it focuses on far southern erie county. In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave (mid level energy)... the steering flow during the first half of tonight will become westerly. As the cold air in the cyclonic flow deepens...increasing instability over the relatively warm lakes (near 40 open waters of Lk Erie and mid 40s open waters of eastern Lk Ontario) will activate the lake snow machines which have been dormant for the past few weeks. Moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow will then become focused over much of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill plateau. Supporting the snowfall will be adequate instability...a reasonably long fetch (esp. Lk Ont)...and a well aligned steering flow. On the other hand...snowfall will be held back somewhat from the cap being in the vcnty of 10k ft. That being said...the mixed phase layer will certainly be deep enough with a -10c isotherm around 3k ft to support at least the potential for electrification for sites east of Lk Ontario. Have thus added the chance for thunder/lightning. The Tug Hill is usually the focus for any lightning. Boiling this all down...forecast snowfall amounts tonight will range from 3 to 5 inches east of Lake Erie (focus on the Chautauqua ridge) with snowfall rates of a half to one inch...to 5 to 9 inches accumulation on the Tug with snowfall rates of one to two inches. Brief periods of three inch rates for the latter cannot be ruled out. Outside of these lake snow areas...amounts will generally be under an inch.

92 pages! New thread for the new year!

Can't believes it's 2020 tomorrow. Buffalo is 2.4 degrees above normal for the date as of the 30th. We are also -7.1 inches for snowfall. Shockingly we're actually 1/2" ahead of last year for total snowfall to date. We look to get some lake enhanced/les tomorrow into weds morning. We then look to experience a period of colder weather Jan 5-9 where we have a few chances of some snow. Models start to diverge towards the middle of the month. Morning runs look pretty conclusive on a very warm pattern shaping up. Tonight's runs look less like that. There will still be quite a few cutters the next few weeks but if we can ride the gradient right the NE seems like it should do okay in this type of pattern. As the case has been all year the models and even ENS have been terrible beyond a week so take everything with a grain of salt. CIPS analogs look slightly above normal in long range extended. Hope everyone has a great new year and go bills! Indices don't look the greatest but we may get some help from the EPO. AO seems to be going down which would help too Potential around the 7-9th for a clipper/miller B Jan 10-15th look quite warm right now, but that's too far out to get into specifics with the current up and down modeling.

hybrid, better moisture and low placement there than here and slightly colder temps.

I'll take Feb 2007 with a wide open Lake Erie.

I believe they are. I have a few friends that board at Mammoth and they said the conditions were great. Last year they had snow into late July. https://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information

Yeah the GEFS show a Eastern ridge and western trough from Jan 9th to the end of the run. If we lose January you can pretty much guarantee below normal snow for winter.

Need that band a few miles north off of Erie to hit me.

RGEM is a 4-8" event for Central/Southern Erie county.

Tuesday night, deep synoptic moisture in combination with the air mass grows colder(H850T dipping to -10/-11C), a modest lake response will be possible overnight. Look for accumulating lake snows first east-northeast of both lakes, then as flow becomes more westerly it will favor the typical snow belt areas east of the lakes. While this doesn`t appear to be a major lake effect event at this point, there likely will be some advisory-type accumulations and possibly a few warning amounts. This will especially be the case across the higher terrain east of both lakes (Chautauqua Ridge and Tug hill area) where upslope flow will maximize accumulations between Tuesday night and Wednesday. For now, will mention this in the HWO. Lake snows will still be ongoing early Wednesday morning. However, over the course of the day lake snows will slowly weaken as synoptic moisture gets stripped away and equilibrium levels fall. As usually is the case, lake snows tend to linger a bit longer than we anticipate so current thinking is they will persist most of Wednesday. With that said, it won`t be until surface-based ridge and drier air builds into our region late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night that will put an end to the lake snows. With increasing shear and lowering of the capping, along with developing warm air advection aloft expect any remaining lake effect will effectively shut down Wednesday night.

Solid transition zone showing up there.

Someone like yourself that only enjoys winter needs to be somewhere else. The reason why the southern Tug or ski country in WNY are the best for me is because I prefer summer to winter but enjoy snow too. We have the best combination of both east of the rockies. Our summers are warm and dry and our winters are snowy and reasonable with the cold. The UP has terrible summers, many times in the 60s for highs and lows in the 40s most of the summer months.

The reason for the quick wind direction is due to the primary taking over near Boston. If that doesn't happen we get a longer WSW wind. The reason for no cold air is just because there is none in the lower 48.

This event actually jackpotted Syracuse with 40-60". All Off Lk. Erie: Randolph....47 inches Cherry Hill....34 inches Perrysburg....25 inches Hinsdale....24 inches Franklinville....19 inches Buffalo area....2 to 8 inches London, Ontario....45 to 65 inches Off Lk Ontario: Lacona....51 inches Newark....42 inches Fulton....29 inches Marion....29 inches Phoenix....22 inches Rochester area....14 to 24 inches Syracuse area....40 to 60 inches

You just need this to hit tug. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C

We're on 88 pages, need to make a new thread soon.

Dates with possible snow. In between those time frames we look to be above average temps. Dec 31-Jan 1st Jan 5th-Jan 9th

LR looks MUCH better and is gathering consensus! A couple LES events in there as well. I'm worried about the SE ridge flexing way out there towards mid Jan, but that's way too far out anyways.

You won't get 8", most of that is sleet.

Such a good placement for good LES NE of the lakes. A few degrees cooler and we would have lake snow warnings for most of WNY.

GEM has pretty big LES event at end of run.

A decent event on GEM, will be interesting to see what high res say.

We did a lot better then the airport due to those lake effect events. But otherwise far below normal at 80" here. If you get a below average temp. winter you can basically guarantee above normal snowfall. Above normal temps during the winter leads to below normal snowfall more times than not.