BuffaloWeather

Insane amount of gulf moisture. Analogs show the signal too. It just started showing up, so will be interesting to see what next few days look like in modeling.

Picked up 3.1" last night. Decent little event.

Speak for yourself. Ice is rare give me the ice storm. Would probably get a week off of work paid in that setup. Were always losing power in wind storms.

Lock it in? Most of this is freezing rain/sleet, tidbits is so bad.

That run would be once in lifetime type stuff. Would paralyze entire states.

Uh.... 1-2" of freezing rain.

Maybe a little bit of lake enhancement there?

Yeah I just measured 2" and looks like a nice band about to move through. Went for a nice walk with the dog in it, felt great.

We're going to get 70" of snow in February.

I blame the play calling more then anything. Tannehill just beat the Patriots throwing for 77 yards. They ran the ball 34 times for 182 yards. Singletary was running all over them, and Houston has a bottom 5 run defense. Gore needs to be gone next year. Allen threw the ball 48 times! Watson for 25....What in the world was our team thinking? Throwing 3 bombs to the end zone in which none were necessary, allen tossing the ball back on his run with over a minute on the clock needing a FG at the mid field...Secondly I blame the refs for that 3rd and 18 play delay of game and the phantom block in the back 15 yard penalty that knocked us out of FG range. But Josh Allen threw for less then 50% completion, he isn't good yet. Has a long offseason ahead of him to improve his accuracy. That was the most frustrating game I've watched since the music city miracle in 1999. Going to take awhile to recover from that one.

I'll gladly trade a snowless 2 weeks for a Bills victory today.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 03 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 18 2020-Fri Jan 31 2020 The global tropical convective pattern remains weak, with ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing, an incoherent MJO signal, and a decaying Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Therefore, little contribution from the tropics to the downstream midlatitude pattern during the Week 3-4 period is evident in the statistical guidance. Dynamical models almost uniformly favor renewed MJO activity, however, with the enhanced phase crossing the Maritime Continent over the next two weeks at a high amplitude on the RMM-based MJO index. The weakening IOD signal effecting a change in the base state may partly explain the forecasted high amplitude signal, but should a robust MJO event develop and propagate to the Pacific, it could help promote a substantial late winter pattern change over North America. These impacts would occur largely after the Week 3-4 period.

This is the primary driver right now with basically neutral Enso conditions.

I can see that but nothing until around the 20th at least. Similar to last year? We're going to have a 40 degree lake in late January. Looks like last year the pattern changed mid month around the 15th and we had that big storm Jan 19th/20th and the 2 big LES events in Late Jan.

Matched up pretty well with the top analog, snowing here but 34 degrees.

I think it's going to be double digits. Our overnight lows have been really warm. Our average low is supposed to be in the teens, we aren't seeing that for awhile.

I don't see any change for at least 2 weeks, probably more.

I mean it literally looks like this the entire run aside from the next few days.

A dusting that is already gone here. Overnight runs look terrible for the next 10 days. Going to need some serious reshuffling to get anything that resembles winter.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml I think that blue circle covers one town.

A friend of mine from the gym is in Willow Alaska right now. Says its high in the negative single digits lows in -20s.

KBUF finished at +3.2 Degs for December and 16.1" of snow. We're +9.5 Degs for January and -9.3" for snowfall to date.