BuffaloWeather

Goofus doing Goofus things.

Look at that band just south of me Actually it goes through here!

2-3" of rain.

This is the worst lake effect year that I can remember in awhile. Need some arctic air to make its way down here at least once this year. How many events are we at? 2-3?

Want to hear a crazy statistic? Buffalo is at 32.6" of snow so far this year. This is beating last years snowfall to date of 27.8". We went on to have 118.8" last season.

Indices favor cut but I thought that high would be strong enough to win out. Guess not. I posted last week the majority of storms would cut in this type of pattern. Day 10-15 are starting to look a little better.

18Z EPS

The top analog based on 12z runs.

Everyone of the top analogs have big time freezing rain accumulations.

The top analog for this weekends system

How do you know that is true? How do they come up with these percentages? I don't buy it. The government is becomingly increasingly corrupt over there. They are doing nothing to protect the Great Barrier Reef and even less to combat the fires. They view profits over helping mitigate climate change. The identical thing is happening here with the election of trump and leaving the Paris climate accord. He thinks climate change is "fake news". 10 billion dollar drilling plants are being set-up in Pennsylvania and elsewhere around the country, including Alaska. Once sacred land up there is being excavated for drilling...Same thing with the corrupt government in Brazil with lax restrictions on conversation in the amazon is leading to land being taking apart for cattle ranchers, wood, etc...I'm in the process of going vegan to help the effort a little bit. I actually have a trip planned to go to Australia and New Zealand in April but may have to cancel the Australia part. Even then NZ is currently a giant smoke cloud. Who knows if it will clear up by then as peak fire season is Jan/Feb.

That track would be a low impact event.

Cutter, similar to what the GEFS had. Still close enough to keep a watch on though.

Cutter or suppressed? Place your bets here!

Have you guys seen what is happening over in Australia? 500 million animals have been killed so far. 12 million acres of land...

Yeah, timing is everything. If the low or high pressure is slower or faster then it either cuts or gets suppressed. It has to be perfect timing.

Slightly more amped then 0z runs.

@wolfie09 You got GEFS?

It's 4-5 days out, we will see many 15-20 mile jumps in next few days. Either way finally something exciting to track.

I'm actually more worried about suppression than amped. That high is gathering strength and moving south quickly. I think we see a regression to more suppressed in the next few days.

Not much, 15-20 miles. pretty much same track. Massive Ice storm.

Yeah, it has huge potential.

Buffalo: Attention turns to the next system that will ride along the cold front near western and north central NY. Strong, southwest flow will supply abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture into the eastern third of the Lower 48. Ensemble forecast systems are showing signals of PWATS of +2 SD above normal Friday to Saturday. Guidance is similar in tracking the deepening low along the cold front from the Central Appalachians to Long Island. While this can keep us on the cold, snowy side, the 850mb low may be further to the northwest. This may bring enough warmer air aloft into the region causing a wintry mix Saturday to Saturday night. A dry, cold will likely move into the region behind this system with little lake response expected. Binghamton: The low pressure system passing by well to the north then drags a cold front into the region later Friday. This then becomes a stationary boundary...with a large temperature gradient developing. Significant model differences remain for the weekend...but guidance does agree on some points. The overall set up is there for strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This could lead to 1-2+ inches of QPF across the region. However, there will also be an arctic Canadian high pressure center north of Lake Superior and into Quebec. This will try to push low level cold air down into the region at the same time; along and north of the stationary boundary. Depending on the exact low track (west, right over us or southeast of here) will have huge implications for what types of weather we see this weekend. These exact details are yet to be resolved...but it`s beginning to look like parts of the area could see impacts...whether it`s from ice, snow, heavy rains (or a combination of the three) remains to be seen. Overall, with such a strong high pressure center north, one would expect the system to perhaps shift a little further south; bringing more of wintry mix to the area. Please be sure to check back as will continue to monitor and update forecasts for the weekend.