BuffaloWeather

I'm keeping your ladder until we get a good LES event.

It's so beautiful, brings a tear to my eye. gfs.mp4

That’s about the only thing that could salvage this winter from being a giant f grade. Winter without December and January isn’t winter.

End of gfs has historic lake snow event

The accuracy of the GFS, posted in the Mid Atlantic forum...This is why we toss

HUGE improvement in indices today. Still no NAO so we are going to get the cold eventually, modeling rushes it a little bit. But major gains in the pacific. As wolfie pointed out I'd favor NW/W flow for LES if this holds true in 10-14 days.

Imagine if this was snow

From the GL section as I talked about last night. The 00z EPS, in a big change in recent days, went to a broad west coast ridging and Alaska ridging out in day 10-15. PNA trended back to neutral on the teleconnection charts. So the hope there would be to not have an amplified western PNA ridge. If that sort of look verified as shown on the EPS it might be an active clipper/hybrid pattern versus the true dreaded CAD when the PNA ridging becomes more amplified and east based. Also that sort of pattern would be good for the lake effect belts. I've read some LR gurus wondering if EPS is rushing pattern change some, but it's done pretty well thus far this season. Edit: As posted above, that look would more likely favor the east coast for larger synoptic systems but still no signs of a -NAO.

Euro vs GFS. I wonder which one is right.

GFS was terrible for this next storm. Was literally the last one to catch on. Even the NAM beat it...Tossing for GEFS at the very least.

Break out your rafts

Buffalos snowiest Feb is 57-58 which I believe is one of the analogs used for this season in LR outlooks. Give me the cold and the snow will follow.

It's coming, best they've looked in awhile.

WAYYY out there. But GEFS AND GEPS 2 weeks from today starts the pattern change. The western ridge breaks down and a piece of the PV is over hudson bay in cyclonic flow. Much better pacific and Alaska warms up.

@Tom Niziol - Only 28.1% #snow cover across the US right now, have to go way back to 2012 to see less on this date at 12.9%

Lock it in wolf

Well Feb 2014 was due to negative departures. I think we finished at -12.3? This was due to SSW event that brought the PV to the great lakes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2014_North_American_cold_wave February then proved to be the most brutal month of the season. A weak upper level jet over the Northern Pacific not only helped to keep the West Coast ridge intact, but likely played a role in supporting an exaggerated high latitude block over North America. This pattern was further locked in place by the displacement of the much misunderstood polar vortex which drifted south of James Bay for a period of several weeks. The very highly amplified pattern kept a near constant feed of frigid arctic air in place over our region, which plummeted our mercury to levels that averaged 15 degrees F below normal. This is extraordinary considering that the coldest weather of the year occurs during the second half of January and the first half of February, so to be that much below those ‘normal’ values is quite impressive. The near unprecedented cold was accompanied by several storms that generated one of the snowiest months of the winter. Snowfall totals for the month of February were at least two feet above normal in most areas. It is also worth noting that while the colder, more southerly storm tracks generated higher snowfall amounts, it also kept our region from experiencing the usual number of high wind events.

Yeah the UP has the best snow retention east of rockies. Once they get a base, they don't lose it until May. Where Bo lives is the best spot. He rarely drops below 3' throughout the winter, and 80-90% of the winters gets above a 50" base, sometimes 60++

The GEFS show the SE persisting its entire run. If its true we likely end up with +10-15 departures for the month, unprecedented stuff. Same anomalies as Feb of 2014 and March of 2012. Saturday has a chance at 60.

I count 3-4 cutters on GFS over next 12 days. Maybe that last one brings in the cold air behind it?

UP is doing well this year with all the cutters. Weatherbos place. SWE is 7", likely in place until June.

Is it just me or is the NAM getting worse?