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BuffaloWeather

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  1. BuffaloWeather
  2. BuffaloWeather
    It's not a cutter, it's a slider. It is different then your normal cutter. Most cutters you get zero snow. You have a area of low pressure running into a cold high, the front end thump could be substantial.
  3. BuffaloWeather
    GEFS
  4. BuffaloWeather
    And then NW flow lake effect for days on end with little moisture. Wake me up in spring. Temps cold too, so Lake Erie temps are going to fall quick.
  5. BuffaloWeather
    I think this storm ends up being a non event for my area. A few inches max by Sunday would be my guess.
  6. BuffaloWeather
    Lake Erie is 38 degrees today. 4 degrees above average. With long range outlook Erie might actually freeze.
  7. BuffaloWeather
    These are some good indices for a common storm track to bring us snow over the next few weeks https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html
  8. BuffaloWeather
    Yeah the intra month was toasty. Adding to it yesterday and today. Right now Buffalo is +11.5 and likely +12-13 with todays high for the month.
  9. BuffaloWeather
    Buffalo is -14.2" of snow for the date and +11.6 for temps today likely adds 1 or 2 degrees to that. Hard to believe Buffalo has had more snow this year than last year to date. 33.5" vs 32.4". But last year we had a large storm starting in a few days and the 2nd half of January was pretty solid.
  10. BuffaloWeather
    There's that longwave trough I've been talking about in the long range. The significant weekend storm could very likely be a pattern changing system...as long range guidance and forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center suggest that a deep longwave trough will become dominant over the eastern half of the continent as we push through the second half of the month. This would favor below normal temperatures.
  11. BuffaloWeather
    Wolfie the next few weeks with all these models runs
  12. BuffaloWeather
    Should be some big LES on the backside of that low with well aligned flow, good moisture and temps. (NW Flow)
  13. BuffaloWeather
    GFS ENS
  14. BuffaloWeather
    KBUF office
  15. BuffaloWeather
    ^ in house model doesn't have a good snow algorithm it seems.
  16. BuffaloWeather
  17. BuffaloWeather
    So let's see what's going to happen. The first storm goes to far north and we get warm and rain, the second storm just misses us to the NW and we get rain and warm. Then we get really cold air and a really dry airmass. Sounds about status quo for this winter.
  18. BuffaloWeather
    This would be rain for us
  19. BuffaloWeather
    After that storm it's really dry and cold.
  20. BuffaloWeather
    Much warmer sounding for me from Euro, definitely ice/mix
  21. BuffaloWeather
    GEFS wolf?
  22. BuffaloWeather
    That's a snow sounding. Very small area of above 32 degrees between 1-3 pm.
  23. BuffaloWeather
    This system is different, that's why. We are not seeing a system rapidly intensify and cut from Ohio up through our forum. It's sliding across from Michigan into NYS. Much more likely to stay all snow this way.
  24. BuffaloWeather
    To be fair the last month has averaged +10 departures around here in the "heart" of winter. That is almost as rare as Feb 2015. The positive departure anomalies have greatly increased in frequency. It's called global warming. It was 67 degrees the other day here with sunshine, once I get that first taste of spring it's tough to go back to the cold.
  25. BuffaloWeather
    Riding the line
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