BuffaloWeather

What type of gear do you wear?

This would be amazing.

This is amazing. Thanks for this. I have to buy crampons for our hike. I cannot wait. I also need new gear, hiking up 5k mountains with temps in the single digits and 4' of snow can be dangerous. Hopefully we see some moose of wolves too, last time they saw a moose up there. ( I think it was New Hampshire though) Not sure if moose are in the dacks still?

The Tug averages 250-300" I thought? Perrysburg south of Buffalo averages 225" a year. Colden/Boston around 180-210".

Vegas fired Gallant after the Sabres beat them last night...Crazy! They are an expansion team with unprecedented success as a new team. He's a fantastic coach. I like Krueger but would 100% fire him for Gallant.

Hey wolf, what's your average yearly snowfall there. Around 200?

RGEM has a band of LES setting up over northern erie Tomorrow night into friday morning.

The farther NW it goes the better actually. We can get a nice SW flow behind it for a few hours.

I may have to get my snow fix on the south New Zealand glaciers in April. That is if they don't melt by then too

I agree with everything you posted, but MJO convection has been the root cause of our warm weather. As you already stated its been out of the cold phases since November. We need 8/1/2. It looks like it gets to 7 and starts to migrate back again the next few weeks.

$10 virtual bucks Buffalo gets above 40 on Saturday.

You didn't answer on why we have been so warm yet if its not the MJO. Because it is the reason.

You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern.

Then explain why we have been so warm then?

Buffalo is -18.8" of snow for the winter and a +12 for Temp departure for January so far.

The MJO has been the main driver of the record warmth we've been having. It's having similar effects to a strong El Nino with a PAC dominated warm flow. It dominated last years weather too, we could never get sustained cold all winter.

Another warm up coming next week (Thurs-Sunday)

This year the setup is much different. I actually called that LES event last year 2 weeks ahead of time. The entry point of the cold air does not feature something similar to last year. Even if we get the cold, which will be sporadic, not consistent. The winds will be W/NW. Maybe at the very end of Jan/early feb we see a change but until then it will be quite boring by mid january standards.

They've been pretty spot on with the warm weather the last month. All models showed it.

Yes, and the GEPS and GEFS. I still think it comes but with a lot less arctic air then modeled before.

Yeah it doesn't look good. EPS has pushed back the cool down...again.

From the GL section. Thanks! @OHweather I'm just here to spread false hope of a pattern change that'll never come (though we're already setting things in motion this week with a brief -EPO that does dump a good amount of cold into Canada and the eastern half of the U.S.)... I don't totally hate the odds of a storm/event around the 23rd-25th across a good portion of the sub forum, with fairly strong ensemble support for a decent shortwave to eject out of the southwest. With some bootleg blocking across Hudson Bay, lower heights over the southeast, and surface ridging over the top ahead of this feature, I think there's a good shot it's wintry. 850mb temperatures are near normal (after being cold for a few days prior) and are workable with the ensemble mean 0C line south of the Ohio River ahead of this wave. If it deepens too quickly it would still cut and change the Ohio Valley to rain (or perhaps simply give them mostly/all rain), but places like Iowa/Wisconsin/Michigan, Chicago, Detroit, and maybe even Indy/Toledo/Cleveland would probably see a half decent amount of snow if an organized system can eject in this time-frame. Places like Pittsburgh and Columbus/Dayton/Cincinnati still can snow but would likely need to root for a more strung out system, as the "blocking" to the north isn't strong enough to stop a stronger system from cutting too early for them. As for the "pattern change", both the tropics and extra-tropics don't really say it should be here yet...I think the ensembles several days ago (and hence those of us rooting for a pattern change) rushed the change a bit, but things suggest it's probably still 10-15 days away from really being "there"... The MJO is at an extremely strong amplitude in phase 5/by tomorrow 6...these are not cold phases, though do usually end up being cold within 2-3 weeks of their occurrence. Here are lagged composites of what happens after a phase 6 MJO at an amplitude of 1 or greater...although the MJO accounts for something like 25% of the sub-seasonal variability observed over a large sample, this is a very strong MJO and will influence the pattern. Each lag is 5 days. This does not suggest a more legitimate pattern change that dumps cold into the CONUS for another 10-15 days (though does suggest slightly faster high-latitude changes, which we are seeing). Phase 7, which we'll reach in 5-7 days, leads to cold by lag 1 which is 5-10 days (and supports the timeline from a current phase 6) and is typically cold thereafter for quite a while. Phase 8 is cold immediately and for quite a while. Here is a link to these composites for anyone interested: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/ Basically, tropical forcing says we should not yet be cold and probably shouldn't be for another 10-15 days, so it's probably not that surprising that the mid-range guidance has delayed a persistent cold pattern but still shows one developing past day 10. This should start moving up in time as the MJO keeps propagating. Global angular momentum (GWO, AAM, GLAAM, whatever your acronym) will rise soon, but it hasn't yet. A low AAM is more typical of a La Nina, supports a strong stratospheric polar vortex/+AO, and trough over the western U.S. We have been gradually climbing towards a more persistently positive AAM since the middle of fall, but it's been a slow climb, and I think the AAM slipping negative for most of December (after a couple of positive attempts in November) contributed to the strong stratospheric PV and +AO we are dealing with right now. It spiked at the end of December, but the tropospheric pattern was horrible with a PV over Alaska and the stratospheric PV was too strong for that spike to significantly disrupt it. The strong MJO over the next two weeks, along with a fairly strong East Asian Mountain Torque (high pressure east of the mountains) will add a lot of momentum over the next two weeks, and we will see the strongest positive AAM spike of the fall/winter by far. Here is the EPS sea level pressure anomaly forecast for hour 264 showing this strong mountain torque, along with the CFS AAM forecasts for the next month: This added momentum will help fuel an already active sub-tropical jet, will support some jabs to the stratospheric PV, and the MJO moving through the western Pacific as a +East Asian MT occurs will support significant amplification in the EPO/PNA domains. Basically, I understand it's frustrating waiting a bit longer after over a month of really unfavorable conditions for snow for most of the sub and that it may seem like the models are perpetually pushing cold back, but there are reasons we didn't flip as quickly as the models suggested..basically the drivers didn't support it yet...and there are numerous reasons to expect it to still change soon. The combination of factors we will see the rest of this month is unlike anything we've seen so far this fall/winter and I would be flabbergasted if it didn't result in a shakeup in the pattern. I think the trick will be figuring out if we go back to warm in mid-late February, or if it's a more prolonged change that carries us through the rest of winter. I don't know the answer to that yet. After the potential system around the 23rd-25th (that favors the northwestern 2/3rds of the sub) there may be a similar opportunity a few days later. Thereafter individual threats become murkier, but it should stay active and I think we see the EPO drop more than the EPS suggests in the 10-15, which will eventually push the baroclinic zone far enough south to favor the Ohio Valley over the Great Lakes.

400! 60k people in my little town of Hamburg

Build up that base in saranac lake please. I want to hike up a 5k mountain with 4-5 feet on the ground.

Still 4 days out, but the trend this year is further NW as we get inside day 4.