BuffaloWeather

So focused on the next storm that I forgot about the one today. We have several inches down this morning already.

Ride the Euro. Theme of the season. Also, no lake effect is coming. Whatever cold air is shown in the long range will be 40s by the time we get there.

Looks like a beautiful night on the slopes south of here https://www.holidayvalley.com/explore/webcams/

These weird white objects are falling from the sky. We've actually kept around 1-3" of snow here for the entire week. I know most areas around Buffalo haven't had snow on the ground but southern Erie has had 2-6" on the ground. The Village of Hamburg has 3-4". It felt like winter out there.

Some good analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2020020100&map=thbCOOP72

An inverted surface trough and its associated frontal boundary appears to stall over our area for the majority of this period before becoming a closed low and tracking northeast by the tail end. These patterns will result in unsettled weather throughout the period. The latest model guidances are still variable with the placement of the frontal boundary and the number of shortwave disturbances that will ride the boundary. Thus, there is quite a bit of uncertainty to whether we`ll experience a few rounds of rain, mixed precipitation or snow. However, near the end of this period the surface trough looks to form into a closed low, but the model guidances are still in disagreement as to where this low will track. Again causing uncertainty to precipitation type. We will have to keep an eye on this period as we get closer.

It's definitely plausible, there is going to be a really sharp gradient somewhere from Michigan to the NE. Where ever that sets-up will be the jackpot zone if we can get cold enough.

4' for where I'll be hiking in 3 weeks. =0

Dacks look good to pick up 1-2' of snow next few weeks, higher amounts in higher elevations.

Anyone got EPS?

We will find a way to miss all 3 waves.

GEFS

GFS stringing us along again

Feb 4-8th was supposed to be pretty cold, not so much anymore..Once a pattern gets locked in its tough to break. My friend has been in Alaska for 5 weeks and it hasn't gone above 0 degrees since he's been there. (Willow, Alaska) He's dog sledding there today.

Didn't realize the CIPS analogs are derived from the GEFS which have showed consistent cold in the long range for the last 2 months straight. Makes sense now how bad they've been. They're good for 2-3 days out analog events, but beyond that not much use as GEFS have been so terrible.

Should have came a few years ago. Redfield got nearly 150" of snow in just December. https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1314

Last year was very similar to this year except we had the SSW event in late December that brought a piece of the PV into our area for 2 weeks in late Jan/Early Feb that brought Buffalo 60% of its snowfall for the winter in a 2-3 week period.

I can't believe we're going to go an entire winter without a good LES band.

Cohen and his Siberian snow cover having a correlation to a negative AO is the biggest hoax in the met world. Not a big fan of him.

It's a decent event for the Dacks. Foot or so.

GEFS

Just no cold air anywhere. Get the cold air and we get above average snowfall in Upstate 95% of the time.

GEFS with a really bad cold bias all winter.

I'm actually starting to cheer for Adirondack snow. I'll be doing a few high peaks Feb 21-23rd and want some deep snow there, just ordered my crampons yesterday.

The models and even the ensembles have been putrid outside of 4-5 days. Last weeks storm went 250 miles further NW in the last 72 hours.