BuffaloWeather

Picked up 2.2" of 1:8 type stuff overnight. The storm definitely went 50 miles SE last minute. It caked to the trees and looks beautiful out. Nice band about to move through

Started snowing at 10:30 but the dendrites are small and wet.

To be back in Iceland for that storm lol

Tom Niziol This system forecast to move from the Eastern US across the North Atlantic has all the meteorologists talking right now. The GFS is showing a central pressure of 914mb Saturday afternoon between Greenland and Iceland. We are in record territory for the lowest pressure in the North Atlantic ever recorded if this happens. Stay tuned...

Too many fossil fuels being burned over freaks house.

Filling in nicely

My Point and click forecast. Tonight Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 29. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers between 2pm and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. High near 32. North wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

So close to combining with the weak wave from the NW. A little quicker and we're looking at a much stronger system, that was showing up 3-4 days ago with higher QPF.

Looks pretty good

lmao

Gain a little latitude and they've actually had a decent winter.

Did you see this? Pretty crazy. I haven't dropped below 10 degrees at my location either. While many areas have reached single digit lows this winter season, the coldest temperature at the Buffalo Airport has only been 10F, and this cold airmass will likely end the streak of non-single digit temperatures on the 14th, a streak ending at 342 days (tied 4th longest).

That's including the lake effect/enhancement that comes through after the initial 3-6" from the low pressure.

EPS

Hoping the GEM is onto something

I forgot what a lake effect band looked like

Some heavy snow on the RGEM, a little further NW then the other solutions. It's sort of a 2 part storm, initial low and then the shortwave behind it with leftover moisture/lake enhancement.

Yeah with that track and moisture I'm going with 5-8" across all of WNY, double digit totals in the hills.

True, almost as garbage a model as the ICON.

Yeah we need that shortwave and low pressure to merge at the perfect time like the GFS is showing, the Euro shows the wave being a tad late which decreases overall QPF.

GEM GFS

Yeah last few runs of models have definitely lowered the event to WWA, outside chance at WSW for higher elevations.

Rochester peeps will cash in big time with this flow. Should be able to add quite a bit on top of the synoptic.