BuffaloWeather

The euro has 10-15” of 1:10 snow as well for all of Wny

March 2008 was bigger wasn’t it?

Lets keep the storm talk in that thread, everything else in here until the storm is over and create a new one for March.

Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and Batavia ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in significant blowing snow. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through early Thursday afternoon. Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow. Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 40 to 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon.

Now that’s a map

Awesome timing!!

Might make a trip down to Holiday valley Friday or Sat. Should be some good conditions down there.

Really good discussion: What`s concerning about this is that compared to 24 hours ago...the track of the surface low has trended notably further to the southeast in almost all of the available guidance...which is a marked reversal of the further northwestward track seen over the previous few days. This change has important implications for far western New York...where thermal profiles now appear to turn colder faster and allow for a faster changeover from rain to snow Wednesday night...thereby raising the specter of a period of accumulating moderate to heavy snow from later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While there is still a fair amount of disagreement amongst the various model packages on potential snowfall amounts stemming from this...at least some advisory-type accumulations are starting to appear likely across far western New York...with warning-criteria snowfall amounts possible given some of the more impressive model solutions (most notably the ECMWF). With this and the abrupt shift in the guidance both in mind...we have elected to hoist a new Winter Storm Watch for the Niagara Frontier for Wednesday night and Thursday morning...and have also moved up the start time of the existing Watch for the Southern Tier to cover this potential initial synoptic snowfall...in addition to the lake enhancement that is still expected to begin there later Wednesday night. The heavy snow potential from Wednesday night will rapidly exit Thursday morning. Abundant wrap around moisture will produce areas of light snow Thursday across much of the region, especially Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, with a relative minima in snow by afternoon for the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Lake enhanced snow will be embedded within the general area of synoptic snow as cold air rapidly deepens and lake induced equilibrium levels rise to near 10K feet. Off Lake Erie, lake enhanced and orographically enhanced snow will focus on the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and western Wyoming County. The deepest moisture and best synoptic scale support will be in the morning, and this should support a steady moderate, to marginally heavy snow in the upslope areas east of Lake Erie. The deeper moisture and better synoptic ascent will move away by afternoon, resulting in a lowering of snowfall rates across upslope areas. Off Lake Ontario, westerly flow will become established by late morning or midday, with a strong band of lake effect/lake enhanced snow targeting the Tug Hill region by afternoon. This will be embedded within a broader area of light synoptic snow. The snowfall rates will continue to get heavier as the afternoon progresses and cold air deepens, and boundary layer flow becomes better aligned. Thursday night through Saturday the vertically stacked low will cutoff from the westerlies and drift slowly east across southern Quebec. Model guidance has remained fairly consistent with this idea since yesterday, although the latest models have a little more in the way of widespread light synoptic snow through the period. The synoptically forced snow will increase Friday afternoon and continue Friday night through Saturday morning as the western tail of the mid level trough moves southeast across the eastern Great Lakes, and the deepest synoptic scale moisture crosses the area. This will produce light to borderline moderate snow accumulations across much of the region, with a relative minima across the valleys of Livingston and Allegany counties where downsloping will minimize snowfall. The synoptic scale pattern continues to support the idea of a significant and long lasting lake effect/lake enhanced snow event. CIPS analogs continue to return impressive analog means in terms of snowfall, and also return some notable dates of analog events. The large scale pattern also fits the climatology from our local analog research for major lake effect events for east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Off Lake Erie... Persistent westerly flow will support lake enhanced upslope snow across the higher terrain east of the lake Thursday night through Saturday, with boundary layer flow slowly veering more northwesterly late Friday night and Saturday. The highest snowfall rates will likely occur Friday afternoon and Friday night when deeper synoptic scale moisture and support move back over Western NY. The lake enhanced snow will then decrease quickly in areal coverage and intensity through the day Saturday as deeper moisture pulls away, and inversion heights begin to lower. As far as snowfall amounts go, storm totals are likely to reach 1-2 feet across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie along the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and western Wyoming County. Some localized amounts of over 2 feet are possible. Note, this does not include the synoptic snow that precedes the main lake effect event. Off Lake Ontario... The heaviest snow will likely occur Thursday night with well aligned westerly flow down the long axis of the lake, interacting cooperatively with orographic enhancement on the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates may reach 2+ inches per hour and this one 12 hour period could produce well over a foot of accumulation for the Tug Hill. On Friday boundary layer flow will begin to veer slightly, and the position of the upstream mid level trough may also force lake effect snow to move a little farther south, and re-orient itself with less potential for one single, strong band, and more potential for a broad area of lake enhanced snow east and southeast of the lake. Boundary layer flow will continue to slowly veer more northwest Friday night and Saturday, spreading lake enhanced snow to much of the area southeast of the lake. Snowfall rates will decrease during this time frame, but the footprint of the snow will spread out over a much wider area. The snow will continue through Saturday morning before decreasing in areal coverage and intensity Saturday afternoon and evening as the deeper moisture pulls away. As far as amounts go, storm totals are likely to reach 2-3 feet on the Tug Hill with locally higher amounts possible if the band of heaviest snow stalls in one location long enough. 6-10 inches of snow is possible for areas southeast of the lake from Orleans to western Oswego County, including the Rochester area. Much of this will fall later Friday through Saturday as boundary layer flow veers more northwesterly. Snowfall rates will not be as high in this phase of the event. Note, these totals do not include the synoptic snow that will precede the main lake effect event. Finally, it will be very windy during the first phase of this lake effect event Thursday and Thursday night. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be common at times, producing significant blowing and drifting snow. The strongest winds will be on the lake plains where the least amount of snow will fall. There may be a period with wind gusts up to or exceeding 45 mph Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will become somewhat lighter Friday through Saturday, although there will still be enough wind to produce at least some limited blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

WSW up for WNY ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in significant blowing snow.

WSW updated. ..WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 40 to 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow. NYZ012-019-020-085-260400- /O.EXT.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200229T2300Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 244 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow.

Weird post as euro is huge hit and other is not

Tops out at 980 MB before weakening. A little weaker than GFS.

Euro is identical to GFS, (a few MB weaker, but pretty much exact track. I have yet to see those colored purples in a synoptic storm across WNY on pivotal.

GFS ENS much more realistic, all of these are WSW for WNY.

Go look for yourself, I'm at work.

The NAM and Canadian are worst on verification scores. It goes Euro, UK, GFS. So the GFS is not a bad model. However its highly unlikely the latest run comes to fruition.

That was the strongest synoptic run since I've been following within 36 hours too. Insane!

976 MB NE of Rochester! This would be a blizzard for all of WNY

GFS shows rapidly strengthening system, some very heavy snow in that 20-30 mile wide band.

Crazy last minute model runs. Winter storm warning for all of wny based on model consensus.

Best look in awhile for you, the best looks just north of you, but too close to call.

One more pic from the overnight sunrise hike.

Another pic from the sunrise hike

Well my winter fix has been satisfied. Definitely my favorite trip ever to the Adirondacks. 30-50" of snow on our hikes up to the peaks. Winds at the top of the one peak had to be over 80 mph. By far the strongest winds I have ever experienced in my life, nothing comes even close. We did a sunrise hike the first day. There was a high peak called big slide. We were the only ones on the entire trail. On the way down you can slide all the way down, literally one of the most fun things I've ever done in my life. https://imgur.com/a/BThJPhr