BuffaloWeather

Lets not forget what happened in 1918, obviously that is highly unlikely with our medical advancements. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

Yeah I don't get it. Food and water would be a top priority for me. Toiler paper means nothing to me.

If this virus was allowed to run rampant it would likely usher in the next depression. It spreads faster than the seasonal flu. The seasonal flu has a vaccine. The mortality rate is much higher for this than the flu. Containment is prudent and necessary. However, the media panic is unnecessary. Everything is made in China and they have been shut down for weeks. The economy is run on supply and demand and the next few weeks we will see a shortage of many supplies. US is a very service based industry. I expect further declines in markets for the next month or two while we get vaccine made. I am friends with someone with a PHD that works in developing experimental medications for cancer. She said a vaccine would take about a year to develop and send out to the public. With it becoming a pandemic she expected late summer/early fall. Vaccines have started in developmental stages early this year.

consumer durables up 6% today. Get that toilet paper!

We were due for a recession very soon anyways, this is just amplifying its effects. Corporate balance sheets are loaded with high debt loads. (although interest rates look to remain very low for those debt loads) Other indicators were offsetting the negative ones. Low unemployment, home buying, wage growth. But with this virus and the effects its already had I can see it going pretty far south. 15-18k DOW range. Almost everything is created in China and they've been on lock down for awhile now. There is going to be a shortage of supply. Our system of trade is so delicate. It will have a trickle down effect through the numbers being reported the next few months which will result in a further decline in the market.

And 6 quarters of negative GDP for a depression. At this moment I'm studying for my Series 65 license and learning so much about markets. This administration is a joke. Making the rich...richer. The trickle down theory does not work at all. In one of the videos I had to watch for my training the top tax bracket used to be 91% in the 50s. It should go back to that. I'm 32 so just raised my 401k contribution to 20%. Perfect buy low opportunity. Was even tempted to use my emergency fund to throw some money at some stocks. Or my new zealand trip money

That is a crazy story. Just goes to show you, take this very seriously. A lot of companies are banning international travel. Going to be canceling my trip pretty shortly I think.

CDC Data for Influenza, US 2018-2019 : 35.5M cases, 35,157 deaths 2018-2018 : 45M cases, 61,099 deaths 2016-2017 : 29M cases , 38,230 deaths 2015-2016 : 24M cases, 22,705 deaths Typical US mortality rate for influenza is around 0.1%. Current US mortality rate is 2.8%. [ 1323 cases, 38 deaths.] This percentage is likely inflated due to the lack of test kits available to positively confirm infection rates, but it's still an order of magnitude higher than the annual influenza mortality rates. == Large parts of the US have some resistance to influenza from annual vaccinations, although each year tends to see a different strain of the same virus. Coronaviruses are a different virus family, and there is not much resistance to them. This is why they spread rapidly the way they do. A higher mortality rate with ease of spread makes the current actions very prudent, and influenza comparisons generally irrelevant.

Harvard statistical modeling projects 1/3 of the US population will be infected and 20-60% of the world.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Basically boils down to this... Flu has a mortality rate of .1% and COVID-19 will be between 1-4%. Hospitals are already near 70% compacity. They will be overrun the next few months or until a vaccine is found. It has a really high mortality rate for those elderly and immune compromised. I think it's a pretty big deal. Countries don't just shut down entirely (Italy) because of overreacting.

I'm down so much in my 401k I don't even want to look.

https://wyrk.com/rochesters-first-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed/?fbclid=IwAR3R9yQ4mHSxVJsRhnbbwPkubQxpK2TknPTjG58ySYKGYaI5e-wSGlR-zws

First case in Monroe county.

Yeah going to wait another 10-14 days but most likely canceling my trip. I will get almost all of my money back.

Just from experience I don't think I've ever been sick in the summer. I get sick 1-2 times a year between Oct-April. Usually sinus infections/colds. Have had the flu once in the last 6-7 years, never get the shot. Wife had the flu in Nov, but I never got it. She said the flu in Nov. was the worst sickness she ever had. Nearly a 103 fever, lasted 3-4 days with severe symptoms.

Just because they are testing more. China cases have leveled off.

Kind of hoping for a quick transition to summer. Need to get this virus thing in check. Doubt it survives the summer heat.

When a pattern is locked in its locked in. 70s next weekend?

Yeah elevation is everything in marginal winters. The entire Adirondack region had feet of snow when I went there.

It looks like there is some good synoptic potential there mid/late month but that high is destroying everything.

Bro its so beautiful out. I love the snow but man this is amazing. Wolf that 99.75 is bothering me, round that to 100", I mean Rochester does it

You didn't have a ratter in Rochester. You're technically still above normal for snowfall on the year.

Farewell winter, it's been real.