BuffaloWeather

I'll be in Alaska for 10 days starting next week, pretty good shot of some August snow for the 2nd year in a row for me.

Pretty drastic shift in the long range models. Now with a massive ridge out west and general troughing out east.

JUNE TEMPS BUF: -0.2 ROC: -0.2 WAT: 0.0 SYR: -1.1 BING: -0.8 JULY TEMPS BUF: +0.7 ROC: -0.2 WAT: +0.8 SYR: +2.3 BING: +1.5 Average Summer Temps so far: BUF: +0.5 ROC: -0.4 WAT: +0.8 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.7 So far this summer looks pretty close to normal. We will see what August brings but everyone is above normal besides KROC with their suspect instrument as everyone else in NYS is above for June/July.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/2022July28WyomingCountyTornado?fbclid=IwAR2w-xTRMugtyoUGvlGkO2kAR9uSWqDDasa8VxcqBTQsCFcEIyIM5QQ_W6E

Sent check pm

Yep. We've been talking about it in discord. 100% a tornado on the ground and likely a decent one.

We're you able to join? I don't see you in here yet.

It is worth noting that there are signals indicating a significant warmup to close out the first week of August as a strong 590-595dam H500 ridge expands across the central and eastern CONUS. As of this forecast update, the Climate Prediction Center still has much of the Great Lakes region under a moderate risk for excessive heat from 8/3-8/6.

Super torch coming for first 2 weeks of August as the central ridge builds east

Few videos of storm chasing today. 2nd video is the best.

Mesoscale Discussion 1575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio to southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241710Z - 241915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon hours and will pose a threat for strong to severe winds. A watch is likely within the next hour. DISCUSSION...A field of growing cumulus is noted from northeast OH into northwest PA with a few deeper convective towers becoming evident, one of which has rapidly intensified within the past 20 minutes. In the absence of stronger surface/low-level forcing, this activity is likely being fostered by broad ascent ahead of a mid-level perturbation across the Great Lakes, aided by rapidly decreasing MLCIN as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s (based on a modified 15 UTC BUF sounding). While thunderstorm coverage in the near-term is somewhat uncertain given the weak/broad forcing for ascent, continued destabilization through the day should support the maintenance of the deepening convection. Strong winds (upwards of 40-50 knots) are noted within the lowest 3 km of regional soundings and VWP observations, which suggests that any developing storm will pose a strong to severe wind risk. 0-6 km bulk shear values near 35-40 knots will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells capable of large hail. A watch will likely be needed within the hour to address this concern as addition thunderstorms mature through the early afternoon.

Pretty rare day across Upstate 5% tornadic hatch

Perfect. Going with a colder then average December.

Yeah I want to say SYR and BUF run .1-.5 too high and Rochester runs the same but too low.

July Temps BUF: +0.6 ROC: -1.0 WAT: -0.1 SYR: +1.6 BING: +0.7

Current conditions at Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport (KSYR) Lat: 43.11°NLon: 76.1°WElev: 420ft. Mostly Cloudy 95°F 35°C Humidity 37% Wind Speed SW 13 mph Barometer 29.66 in (1003.5 mb) Dewpoint 65°F (18°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 97°F (36°C) Last update 20 Jul 3:54 pm EDT

Current conditions at Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport (KBUF) Lat: 42.94°NLon: 78.74°WElev: 709ft. Partly Cloudy 90°F 32°C Humidity 44% Wind Speed SW 15 G 24 mph Barometer 29.63 in (1002.6 mb) Dewpoint 65°F (18°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 92°F (33°C) Last update 20 Jul 3:54 pm EDT

Current conditions at Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport (KROC) Lat: 43.12°NLon: 77.68°WElev: 558ft. Partly Cloudy 92°F 33°C Humidity 41% Wind Speed SW 15 G 25 mph Barometer 29.67 in (1004.5 mb) Dewpoint 65°F (18°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 94°F (34°C) Last update 20 Jul 2:54 pm EDT