BuffaloWeather

Herd immunity may only need 10-20 per cent of people to be infected https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate The Spanish Flu of 1918 only infected 28% of America.

A post from another forum I follow. Looking at the curve of deaths for Stockholm, it further proves the absurdity of the "immunity threshold" claimes of 50-67%. Stockholm has approximately 20% immunity by sample sized antibody tests made. This is the number of dead the last 48 days. Remember that there is a lag in the death toll numbers of approximately 3.5 weeks (from infection to dead), and the direction of the curve is further enhanced by the numbers of new intake of ER patients that is only a 3rd now compared to the peak (didn't find a good curve of that). Rolling average of 7 days I think. So why is the number of dead down by 50%? Immunity is maybe 20% in Stockholm like in NYC. If the immunity threshold was 50-67%, what has made Stockholm's curve go down significantly, all curves are pointing down. Why? Social distancing? Stockholm has very lax restrictions. Schools are open, resturants are open and sometimes crowded. Business is open. How can Stockholm have been able to reduce deaths by 50% while other places -- with a lower immunity rate, i.e. they are not as far along the curve as Stockholm -- are not being able to reduce their curve much if at all yet despite complete lockdown? This is the question that Michael Levitt poses. Is Stockholm really doing such a better job at social distancing than all other places that hasn't reached immunity around 20%? There are also perfectly understandable math behind this: Herd immunity may only need 10-20 per cent of people to be infected | The Spectator Just looking at the headcount like you do with vaccine program is very misleading when you are looking at immunity from recovered patients. Nature will of course infect those who are the most likely to get it first, as a consequence, those who come in contact with the most people and/or are the most susceptible to get the virus will get immunity first when nature is doing the selection unlike a random vaccine program. To quote Nobel Price winner Michael Levitt: "You could say that each of these places stopped because they had wonderful social distancing, or we can simply say they stopped because there was no one left to infect." Someone need to explain this or it should be much more talk about it in main stream media. Have Stockholm, the one place in the world with maybe the least social distancing right now, really done a "wonderful" job with social distancing, is that the reason? Over and out.

My place was under reduced hours for the last 6 or so weeks. Monday we go back to pretty much normal operating hours. We have a 3 phases before we go back to normal.

Need more contact tracing/testing. I believe we are on day 6-7 for decline in hospitalizations?

Parts of NY will be opening May 15th! https://www.wkbw.com/news/coronavirus/parts-of-southern-tier-set-to-reopen-not-here-in-wny?fbclid=IwAR27CWs2TopGyPH5G7irc9LaXvoa46tlLIeL4wrSljj9YCMtdhu-Fvw9tNY

Because old people die bro. It is what it is. The average age of death with this virus is 75 and the average age of death is 78.5 in the USA. Why is that hard to grasp? Less then 5% of people who die from Covid are under 70. Once you get under 65 its far less. The chart above is the reason why, as you age those conditions become more prevalent. I swear some people think we live forever. It's just hard truth. My grandma is more important to me then anyone on this planet. She was born in 1933 and will be 87 in December and when she dies it will be the worst day I'll ever have to experience. She hasn't left her house since this all started. I haven't visited her at all. She got an ipad before this started and we've been zooming her, but it just inst the same as seeing her. The people susceptible to this disease should stay at home while we get this under control, but the rest of us should get on with our life and stop being so soft.

Is this is true the world as we know it will never be the same. I've read quite a few studies that suggest once you've had it you're immune to it and can't spread it like any other virus. In the end the people will dictate how this ends.

I'd say around 500k deaths if we go for herd immunity and half of those would have died from almost any illness due to age. So 250k deaths from Covid that normally wouldn't have died. However, those under 70 would be quite low.

Carnival Cruise Bookings Surge 600% After Announcing August Relaunch https://thewinglet.boardingarea.com/carnival-cruise-bookings-surge-600-after-announcing-august-relaunch/ These are the same people that bought up all the toilet paper at the grocery stores.

The best result would be to have those susceptible to the disease stay inside and offer government/state assistance for food/shelter/stipend until we are able to get a vaccine or herd immunity. The majority of these people stay at home 90% of the time anyways as they are already retired and have underlying health issues. We should also still practice as much social distancing as possible and wear mask as deemed appropriate based on current infection rates in the area. Slowly open the country back up and get enough testing for the entire country. That includes antibody testing done. Require everyone to take the antibody test to see just where we stand in regards to how many people have been infected already. I'm assuming its quite a bit as the virus ran rampant for 4 months in the USA unmitigated. As we obtain these numbers it will allow us to get a better understanding of where the country stands against the virus. No need to stay closed until we get a vaccine, that's impossible.

I don't believe those numbers would be correct if we assume reports from the WHO to be accurate and the latest study just done in regards to immunity thresholds. " For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation." https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4 So we wouldn't use the entire population as a reference point as the majority of the USA would not have any symptoms at all if we went after herd immunity and the mortality rate would be much lower than expected. Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases. Eventually, susceptible numbers become low enough to prevent epidemic growth or, in other words, herd immunity is attained. Although estimates vary, it is currently believed that herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 requires 60-70% of the population to be immune. Here we show that variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection can reduce these estimates. Achieving accurate estimates of heterogeneity for SARS-CoV-2 is therefore of paramount importance in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

This is what 1.5 million gets you in North Boston https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6523-Boston-State-Rd-Hamburg-NY-14075/30350680_zpid/?

I would buy this house tomorrow around here for that price. Something like this is over 400k around here. This is the housing development behind my house and the prices. I can't believe the prices are so high in my backyard. Hopefully it helps my housing value. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3644-Delilah-Ln-Hamburg-NY-14075/2094805663_zpid/

My house was 162k, that is gorgeous.

A place in Eastern NY got 12" of snow crazy.

https://www.cnet.com/how-to/when-will-the-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready-everything-we-know-right-now/ How good are the odds for finding a vaccine? Not great. Only about 6% of vaccine candidates ever make it through to market, and not just because they don't work. There's a whole litany of problems that could cancel even a promising candidate. Take, for example, what happened when scientists tried to develop a vaccine for SARS -- it backfired and actually made people more susceptible to the disease. Same thing happened with a vaccine for Dengue fever. To make matters worse, coronaviruses are a large class of viruses and so far there are no vaccines for any of them. However, this particular coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has some unique traits that may help researchers working on a vaccine. For example, some viruses, like the flu, mutate quickly and often, which is why there's a new flu vaccine every year. This coronavirus doesn't seem to do that. Although it's still too early to be completely certain what will happen by the time a vaccine is ready, it's thought that the virus has not yet mutated significantly enough to disrupt vaccine development, nor is it expected to. What happens if we never find a coronavirus vaccine? The longer we go without a vaccine, the more likely focus will shift toward treatments, such as the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir, which has been showing promising results. Many viruses that used to be fatal are no longer death sentences. Patients with HIV, for example, now can expect to enjoy the same life expectancy as non-HIV-positive individuals, thanks to tremendous advances in treatment. Without a coronavirus vaccine, the road back to normal may be harder and longer, but not necessarily impossible. Coronavirus testing, including antibody testing, and contact tracing efforts would probably need to intensify. Lockdown measures would probably lift slowly, although depending on how people handle it cities and states may bring them back, including requiring face masks and social distancing. Eventually, the global population may reach the 60% to 70% rate required for herd immunity to protect those who aren't immune.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/06/mounting-promises-on-covid-vaccines/ “I don’t think that the general population will have vaccine probably until the second half of 2021. And that’s if everything works OK,” he said.

Yes I know that, but that wasn't my point. My point was that one man with the virus can have that type of impact. Going to be impossible to do anything for years. Suck it up herd immunity is the only option. If one guy on a NFL or NHL team gets sick the entire team is locked down for possible exposure. There won't be sports for years if there is no vaccine. I just can't see that happening.

Bars and restaurants re closing due to 1 man with the virus. Life is never going to be the same. https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-seould-shuts-down-bars-20200509-fble22hvbbdnnhpjbwmtoac7k4-story.html "Seoul shut down bars and nightclubs Saturday, following a surge of coronavirus cases — many linked to one man — after South Korea had relaxed its social-distancing policies. More than 2,100 nightclubs, bars and discos were shuttered under the order Mayor Park Won-soon imposed."

Coronavirus pandemic may lead to 75,000 "deaths of despair" from suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, study says https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/

Snowing here too, unreal

Yeah I would think it would take a few years not decades.