BuffaloWeather

Randolph was strongest sig. Definitely weakening.

Is that a police blocking the road? I saw cops all over the place around the 219 exits. What a waste of money.

I’m so sad I went home

I was just on channel 2

Whats rotation looking like?

I don't know if I can make it down there in time.

The updrafts were incredible. You could see the air ahead of the storm being sucked into the rotation. If we had sun all day, that would have been a full fledged tornado chase =(

Perfect spot! Pics coming!

Or farther south?

Should be good spot?

I’m at Genesee 219 exit

In clearing !!

Wolf keep posting

Where should I go? South of Colden?

Just got home from work, going to chase!

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southern Erie County in western New York... Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 445 PM EDT.. * At 406 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Silver Creek, or 8 miles east of Dunkirk, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Greatest risk for strong to severe storms still likely in time range from mid afternoon into early this evening. Strong winds aloft tied to the MCV results in effective shear over 40 kts which is strong for middle of summer with low-level shear 25-30+kts also strong. The shear combined with seasonable instability (highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s) with MLCAPES 1000-1500j/kg and DCAPES to around 1000j/kg sets the stage for storms with damaging winds the primary threat, but not the only threat. Within slight risk over WNY, SPC probs have WNY in a 5 pct risk for tornado (increased from ydy) which is pretty rare for our severe weather season. Looking at parameters specific to forecasting tornado potential (STP, LCL, effective helicity) we are looking to be on the high end for past tornado days in WNY. Continue to mention this risk in the HWO. It certainly looks justified. Best potential will be mid to late afternoon as storms will initially be discrete with possible supercells. Eventually though given the strong 0-1km shear and the approaching front, storms should become linear as they move east toward Genesee valley and perhaps western Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region with gusty to damaging winds the prime threat. Finally, torrential downpours will be likely in any storm as PWATS surge to over 2 inches. Storms will be moving, so would likely need to have training storms for larger flooding risk.

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southwestern Erie County in western New York... Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 445 PM EDT.. * At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dunkirk, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

3K is less impressive, decent storm into northern Erie

Yeah, has been raining here all morning. Cells just keep popping up. It's actually chilly outside. Not the environment for strong storms this afternoon.

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon... While some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the western counties later this morning and during the midday...the ingredients will come together for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours. The greatest severe weather threat will come from damaging wind gusts, although there will be the risk for tornadic activity...particularly across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region.

We really want full sunshine until this afternoon. These smalls storms might mess up this afternoons potential.

Yeah full cloud cover here. Not looking good.