BuffaloWeather

Canadian went nuts in last few runs. GFS has it too but a little further south and lower totals.

Highest total was 3.16" https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

Tons of rain. Going to be some totals over 4" when all is said and done

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Notably Colder for the Weekend with Lake Effect Snow Possible... Still appears at least the first half of Friday will be dry, and possibly the entire day just depending on location of and speed at which the deeper tropical moisture associated with TS Nicole moves northward up the Atlantic Seaboard. The other player will be an area of low pressure that moves NE`ward through the upper Great Lakes and how its trailing cold front interacts with Nicole`s moisture. Timing of these features will be key as there will likely be a swath of heavy rain moving N`ward with this system. At this point, appears the best chance for any significant rain will be from central/astern NY and points east Friday night into Saturday before strong cold front sweeps it off the New England coast. Now for the colder portion of the forecast period. Cooler air will START to work in across the area through the day on Saturday in the wake of the cold fropa and as a broad mid and upper level trough takes shape over the central and eastern CONUS. While there is strong model consensus that cold air will promote lake induced instability over the >12c lakes...there is a large disparity between some of the packages as to the availability of synoptic moisture. As of midday today (Mon)...the majority of the deterministic models suggest that a `dry` environment will be in place across our forecast area in the wake of the cold front for Saturday and much of Saturday night. This scenario would only allow for a minimal lake response. On the other hand...the entrainment of the tropical system into the frontal passage would slow the passage and would translate into more moisture for the instability to work with. For example...the CanNH shows very robust plumes off each lake on a 250-260 flow. This particular package suggests an explosive lake response as early as Saturday afternoon and evening...which seems too fast given the low level ridging that typically moves through in a 3-6 hr post fropa window. If the latter solution where to verify...we would potentially be looking at significant lake snows east of both lakes Saturday night into Sunday night...although a MORE LIKELY scenario would be for a minimal lake response due to a lack of moisture abv H85. In this case though...a more favorable environment is being depicted for lake effect pcpn Sunday night and Monday. To sum it up...while there is high confidence for below normal temperatures this weekend...including downright cold weather Sunday and Monday...there are still too many questions to be confident for notable lake effect.

fantasy model season starting off strong

Crazy departures through first 6 days of November BUF: +14.3 ROC: +12.3 WAT: +14.2 SYR: +16.2 BING: +16.0

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wetter and eventually cooler times on the way as we close out the work week and head into next weekend. Still appears at least the first half of Friday will be dry, and possibly the entire day just depending on location of and speed at which the deeper tropical moisture associated with TS Nicole moves northward up the Atlantic Seaboard. The other player will be an area of low pressure that moves NE`ward through the upper Great Lakes and how its trailing cold front interacts with Nicole`s moisture. Timing of these features will be key as there will likely be a swath of heavy rain moving N`ward with this system. At this point, appears the best chance for any significant rain will be from central/eastern NY and points east Friday night into Saturday before strong cold front sweeps it off the New England coast. Now for the `cooler` portion of the forecast period. Much cooler air will start to work in across the area through the day on Saturday in the wake of the cold fropa and as a broad mid and upper level trough takes shape over the central and eastern CONUS. Cold air will continue to deepen through the second half of the weekend which will lead to the development of lake effect rain showers as early as Saturday afternoon, with the airmass growing cold enough to support frozen precipitation all the way to the surface by Saturday night. Big picture...lake effect rain and snow showers look like a pretty good bet downwind of the lakes for Saturday night into Sunday, although way to far out to pinpoint location. Several mid level disturbances will also move through the trough aloft, so winds will likely shift around a bit from time to time as well. Looking further out, appears that overall this cooler pattern may have some staying power, hence more seasonable weather may be here to stay for at least a little while.

Amazing stuff as always thanks for this write up!

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We talked it over in discord and plan to keep track of big storms/LES events on here and the smaller day to day stuff will be discussed on there. We have 35 posters who joined and is pretty active daily. If anyone would like to join the discord please PM me through here so I can send out an invite. The invite is good for 7 days. Oct Temps BUF: +0.7 ROC: -1.6 WAT: +0.7 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.1 The first 2 weeks of November look to start out warm This winter looks to be a 3rd year Nina with not many analogs matching. The NOAA winter forecast looks promising for our area https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina#:~:text=Starting in December 2022 through,northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

Oct Temps BUF: +0.7 ROC: -1.6 WAT: +0.7 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.1

Oct Temps BUF: +0.2 ROC: -2.2 WAT: +0.3 SYR: +0.8 BING: -0.7

Couple videos I got of this weeks lake effect rain event.

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We have a discord channel we made for this forum. Would you like to be invited? Its pretty active daily, got 34 members that joined. Let me know I can send you a link in your PMS.

First real snow in WNY this morning

The BUF NWS during that event had a lake effect rain event forecasted until the day of. They dropped a lake effect snow advisory for 1-6" of snow the morning the event hit then upgraded to warning that evening when things went crazy. I remember going for a walk with my parents during that event with transformers blowing all over, the sky lit up like a Christmas tree. Branches and trees were snapping nearly every second, my mom nearly getting hit by one. It was not an advisable walk, but it was such a crazy event I had to be out in it. I think the statistics afterward were Buffalo and surrounding areas had over 70% of the trees damaged/destroyed.

We had 2 feet where I was https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=A

I was right in middle of hardest hit area for that storm. Just did this slideshow for it.

This week looks chilly. A rebound to warmer temps for last part of October.

Chance at first snow this coming week. Average is last week of Oct for first flakes.

Happy 16th anniversary for October Surprise storm!